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Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | Vaccination | Forcasting
last updated 17 Sept 2021

Contents:
Major News
Objective
The Numbers:
World: Summary | Detail | India | Latin America | Asia | .Africa | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States:: Summary | Detail | Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California: Summary | Detail | CA Current notes: | Tiers: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical)
| North Central California Counties | Holiday surge | Davis and Palo ALto | Yolo County | Santa Clara County | 1918 Flu

Some charts here are only updated every several weeks, but you can click on the chart to get the current version.

News

See older news below:

Summary

World:


Click on Charts to go to the current version.


Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:

Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

All Countries: Total cases per day

Vaccination Rate:

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),
reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are half the actual rate

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
1 United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
2 India 654,395 221,181 34% 470 2 1391
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed in the IHME report.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.

* 7 day average (all are 7-day averages)

See Modern East Asian DNA hints at an ancient coronavirus outbreak | Science News

More World Data


United States:



CDC Map

More United States Data


California:

WorldMeter Chart

New CDC Advice - People in counties with High or Substantial levels of community transmission rates should wear masks indoors

Total new cases per 100,000 in the past 7 days.
Transmission
Level
New cases
per 100,000
% of positive
NAATs*
Low 0-10 4-5%
Moderate 10-50 5-8%
Substantial 50-100 8-10%
High ≥100 ≥10%
North Central California Counties
Counties where I have friends and family Average new cases per day per 100,000 last 7 days.
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3   9/10  Vacc
Rate
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 44 53%
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 24 57%
Placer Co 1.3 8.3 37 77 41 56%
Sacramento Co 0.3 11.7 39 73 34 54%
Sutter 13.4 60 72 62 46%
Solano Co 1.3 10.0 27 66 27 53%
Yolo Co 1.8 6.3 33 44 28 58%
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 21 65%
Santa Clara Co 1.3 5.1 18 25 13 73%
San Mateo Co 1.3 6.4 21 23 14 70%
San Francisco Co 22 14 72%
North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.

Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Sep 10
United States 331 41,741,693 145,553 677,017 1,378 12.6% 44 2,045 4.2 53%
California 39.510 4,474,673 9,429 67,100 112 11.3% 24 1,698 2.8 57%
Sep 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
California 39.510 4,421,842 13,901 66,497 106 11.2% 35 1,683 2.7 56%
Aug 3
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
California 39.510 3,985,729 9,104 64,556 38 10.1% 23 1,634 1.0 63%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
California 39.510 3,856,595 3,454 64,088 31 9.8% 8.7 1,622 0.8 61.0
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%
California 39.510 3,795,479 889 63,008 23 9.6% 2 1,595 0.6 52%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average

New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.

Deaths:


More California Data
End of Summary
Related Notes::Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Good Twitter feeds

World Stats:


Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.


Click on Charts to go to the current version.
You can mouse over charts there to get more information.

Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.


NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC
Hot Spots

% Vaccinated:

Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

New Cases per Million per day
June July 12 %
change
Vaccination
doses
per 100
% world
population
Density
P/Km2
S. America 330 215 -35% 51 5.5% 25
N. America 40 73 83% 78 7.6% 28
Europe 52 129 148% 77 9.6% 34
Asia 29 36 24% 48 59.5% 150
Africa 8.7 31 256% 4.2 17.2% 45
Australia
/Oceania
2.8 19 579% 27 0.6% 5
Density - P/Km2 = 1,000 people per square kilometer.
COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.

Deaths:

New Cases driven by largest countries.

Spikes in Total Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn

The new estimate of 4 million deaths in India (See above) would put them off the chart.

Note: The new estimate of 4 million deaths in India (See above) would put them at 2900 deaths per million; Number 3

World Total Deaths:

Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.

A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths, doubling the world total to 8 Million.
See India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions | WSJ

Vaccinations:
47% of the US population are fully vaccinated.
8% of Canadians are fully vaccinated.
Fully vaccinated in Europe: UK 37%; Spain 19%; Italy 19%; Germany 17%; France 16%; Russia 8%
Only 3% of the regional population in Latin America are fully vacinated.
Chile 42%; Brazil 10%; Argentina 6%; Columbia 6%;


Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
1 United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
2 India 654,395 221,181 34% 470 2 1391
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed here.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.

April 22 - Other countries of interest. Sorted by death rate
Country New New
Cases/
Total Tot Cases/ Total Deaths/
Pop Cases 1M pop Cases 1M pop Deaths 1M pop
Czechia 11 1,547 144 1,612,832 150,380 28,787 2,684
Hungary 10 1,182 123 760,967 78,934 26,001 2,697
UK 68 2,534 37 4,398,431 64,518 127,345 1,868
Peru 33 7,335 220 1,734,606 52,026 58,604 1,758
Spain 47 8,435 180 3,456,886 73,913 77,496 1,657
Mexico 130 3,509 27 2,319,519 17,839 214,095 1,647
Sweden 10 5,565 548 932,076 91,829 13,882 1,368
Ireland 5 542 109 248326 49,832 4,899 983
Canada 38 8,593 226 1,155,834 30,410 23,822 627
S. Korea 51 681 13 117,458 2,289 1,811 35
Australia 26 25 1 29777 1157 910 35
New Zealand 5 1.43 0.30 2613 522 26 5
China 1,439 26 0.02 90566 63 4636 3
Vietnam 98 8 0.08 2,824 29 35 0.5
Taiwan 24 3 0.12 1,086 46 11 0.4


See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

We've included the countries out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M), with the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection. Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.
Country Date New Cases
North America Jan 12, 2021 470
Europe Nov 2, 2020 370
South America June 3, 2021 334
Asia May 5, 2021 107
Africa Jan 11,2021 24
Argentina june 1, 2021 728
Columbia June 6, 2021 527
Costa Rica May 18, 2021 483
Mexico Dec 24, 2020 81
South Africa Jan 11, 2021 321
Canada Apr 16, 2021 232
Belgium Oct 30, 2020 1,536
Ireland Jan 10, 2021 1,323
Portugal Jan 28, 2021 1,264
United Kingdom Jan 10, 2021 881
Israel Jan 11, 2021 873
France Nov 3, 2020 832
Spain Jan 26, 2021 791
Turkey Apr 21, 2021 714
Sweden May 4, 2021 500
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
United States Jan 11, 2021 757
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
Germany Dec 22, 2020 306
India May 6, 2021 282
Russia May 13, 2021 193

Total:

Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported. See below/


According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers. Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600
Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746
Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547
Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970
Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910
Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184
United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075
Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912
Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787
United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722
South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676
Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647
Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051
France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029
Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635
Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437
India 654,395 221,181 34% 470

Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand


See More International Stats


United States:

July 15
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Sept 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
August 1
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average.


July 27: New CDC advice: People in counties with High or Substantial levels of community transmission rates should wear masks indoors - Including vaccinated people.
2/3 of counties are in the High and substantial levels of spread.

CDC COVID Data Tracker Map

Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days.
Transmission
Level
New cases
per 100,000
% of positive
NAATs*
Low 0-10 4-5%
Moderate 10-50 5-8%
Substantial 50-100 8-10%
High ≥100 ≥10%

* NAAT - Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests

Note: The CDC's definition of substantial based on new cases per 100,000 is questionable. It is only 20% of the maximum infection rate in January.
The rate of increase is substantial. An increase of 64% in 1 week.

On January 11th the US had the highest 7-day average of 255,575 new cases per day (77 per 100,000) [see graph below] or 539 new cases per 100,000 over a 7-day period.
100 new cases per week per 100,000 (14 per day) is about 20% of the maximum infection rate. I guess it's substantial because of the trend.
40,596 new cases per day on July 21 and 66,606 on July 28


Worldmeter chart


See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker

COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death

See >1918 Flu

Total Deaths per 1 Million Sep 10
1 New Jersey 3,046
2 Mississippi 2,992
3 New York 2,837
4 Louisiana 2,808
5 Massachusetts 2,662
6 Rhode Island 2,636
7 Arizona 2,635
8 Alabama 2,585
9 Arkansas 2,396
10 Connecticut 2,361
11 South Dakota 2,356
12 Florida 2,271
13 Pennsylvania 2,237
14 Georgia 2,236
15 Indiana 2,196
16 New Mexico 2,196
17 Michigan 2,185
18 Nevada 2,176
19 South Carolina 2,165
20 Illinois 2,118
21 Texas 2,081
22 Oklahoma 2,074
23 North Dakota 2,064
USA Total 2,048
24 Tennessee 2,034
25 Iowa 2,009
26 Kansas 1,979
27 Delaware 1,951
28 Missouri 1,900
29 Ohio 1,810
30 Kentucky 1,791
31 West Virginia 1,789
32 Montana 1,716
33 California 1,700
34 Maryland 1,683
35 District Of Columbia 1,651
36 Wyoming 1,519
37 Wisconsin 1,479
38 North Carolina 1,437
39 Minnesota 1,416
40 Virginia 1,413
41 Idaho 1,377
42 Colorado 1,317
43 Nebraska 1,218
44 New Hampshire 1,060
45 Washington 918
46 Utah 850
47 Oregon 809
48 Maine 715
49 Alaska 607
50 Hawaii 461
51 Vermont 460
Source: Worldmeter



See Positivity Rate.
The epicenters keeps changing:
The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29 Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.
In July 2020 because of their new case rates and population, Florida, Texas and California accounted for 19% of all new cases in the world and more than a third of the new cases in the U.S. with a total of 27,574 new cases per day recorded.
Case rates in those states droped by 2/3 in September.
in January 2021 the U.S. accounted for 34% of all new cases in the world.
In April 2021 the world hit a record of 823,439 new cases, 41% from India.
See World leaders.

The five states with the biggest two-week jump in cases per capita in July 2021 all had lower vaccination rates: Missouri, 45.9%; Arkansas, 43%; Nevada, 50.9%; Louisiana, 39.2%; and Utah, 49.5%.

Hot Spots Relative to the National Average
Bold - States 50% higher than national average thru Dec 2 and 30% higher after that.

State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April
Peak
Jul 15 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 2 Dec 2 Jan 4 Feb 3Mar 3Apr 7Jun 6Jul 17 Aug 14 Sep 9
US 10 20 10 15 24 50 66 45 19 19 4 9 39 44 US
New York 51 4 6 7 10 37 71 53 32 34 3 3 21 27 New York
New Jersey 39 4 6 8 18 46 49 51 34 47 3 4 19 22 New Jersey
Michigan 16 6 11 35 72 27 17 14 70 4 2 14 23 Michigan
Pennsylvania 13 18 53 56 42 20 33 4 2 16 28 Pennsylvania
California 3 20 11 8 10 37 96 42 11 7 2 6 31 16 California
Florida 6 56 13 12 20 39 62 46 25 24 9 30 101 66 Florida
Arizona 4 51 8 9 19 62 112 64 16 9 5 12 38 38 Arizona
Texas 3 37 13 13 20 38 63 70 25 10 4 9 50 62 Texas
Idaho 37 16 28 45 70 50 55 Idaho
North Dakota 13 38 60 139 89 26 24 55 North Dakota
South Dakota 27 55 134 100 48 43 0 South Dakota
Wisconsin 14 15 43 80 70 44 0 Wisconsin
Iowa 24 29 66 64 43 0 Iowa
Utah 20 13 33 55 86 85 43 7 16 31 0 Utah
Montana 12 42 77 79 36 0 Montana
Nebraska 14 29 60 93 50 25 0 Nebraska
Wyoming 25 61 93 38 9 14 45 80 Wyoming
Minnesota 12 20 46 115 34 34 0 Minnesota
Rhode Island 15 42 114 96 51 35 28 0 Rhode Island
New Mexico 14 38 88 59 0 New Mexico
Indiana 18 44 87 71 0 Indiana
Nevada 16 27 75 68 23 35 0 Nevada
Ohio 67 64 0 Ohio
Tennessee 72 93 40 19 56 74 Tennessee
Kansas 85 36 14 41 0 Kansas
Oklahoma 84 52 15 54 59 Oklahoma
Arkansas 86 51 28 5 34 74 56 Arkansas
Georgia 80 51 28 12 54 73 Georgia
South Carolina 75 67 21 61 92 South Carolina
North Carolina 68 52 23 15 49 36 North Carolina
Colorado 25 10 6 0 Colorado
Washington 7 8 9 0 Washington
Missouri 31 45 0 Missouri
Louisiana 26 126 50 Louisiana
mississippi 12 110 65 mississippi
Alabama 14 81 77 Alabama
Alaska 83 Alaska
85 W. Virginia
89 Kentucky



COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis | PLOS Medicine

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Categories include were age, rurality, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status ( household income, education), and housing, poor health, obesity, smoking, and diabetes.

See also Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC


See Epicenters
State and City cases and deaths per capita
I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.
Covid-19 Vaccinations: County and State Tracker - The New York Times

California

Click on Charts to go to the current version.

Aug 3
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Sep 10
United States 331 41,741,693 145,553 677,017 1,378 12.6% 44 2,045 4.2 53%
California 39.510 4,474,673 9,429 67,100 112 11.3% 24 1,698 2.8 57%
Sep 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
California 39.510 4,421,842 13,901 66,497 106 11.2% 35 1,683 2.7 56%
Aug 3
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
California 39.510 3,985,729 9,104 64,556 38 10.1% 23 1,634 1.0 53%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
California 39.510 3,856,595 3,454 64,088 31 9.8% 8.7 1,622 0.8 51.4
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%
California 39.510 3,795,479 889 63,008 23 9.6% 2 1,595 0.6 43%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average


Regions:

North Central Califronia Counties Map

See county data below.


CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.
Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov


California Reopens:
On Tuesday June 15th California's four-color tiered restrictions on business capacity and activity will end.

On June 15, capacity and distancing restrictions will be lifted for most businesses and activities. Large-scale indoor events will have vaccination or negative test requirements for attendees through at least October 1.
Testing must be conducted within 72 hours before event start time (both PCR and antigen are acceptable). Results of the test must be available prior to entry into the event or venue.
Attendees who do not verify vaccination status for outdoor Mega Events should be asked to wear face coverings.


Vaccine Verification / Negative Testing Required for Indoor mega events
Recommended for Outdoor mega events
Capacity Limitations No restrictions
Physical Distancing No restrictions for attendees, customers and guests
Masking Follow current CDPH Guidance for Face Coverings
Travelers Follow CDC recommendations and CDPH Travel Advisory
CDPH Guidance for Face Coverings
in the following settings where masks are required for everyone, regardless of vaccination status:

Additionally, masks are required for unvaccinated individuals in indoor public settings and businesses (examples: retail, restaurants, theaters, family entertainment centers, meetings, state and local government offices serving the public).

See Beyond the Blueprint Framework for Industry and Business Sectors, with Limited Exceptions | CDPH.ca.gov

See Blueprint for a Safer Economy | covid19.ca.gov

The Mercury News says, Stricter COVID rules didn't hurt California's economy.
California is down 1.4 million workers since we learned the word "coronavirus".
But, Among large states, those with strict pandemic rules performed as well and in some cases better than their laissez-faire counterparts. California's GDP shrunk less than that of Texas and Florida in 2020, all of which outperformed the United States as a whole. Washington, which had some of the strictest pandemic restrictions in the country, had the lowest GDP loss among large states.

The findings from the UCLA Anderson Forecast are "diametrically opposed" to the narrative common among some COVID-19 regulation opponents that the public health orders undermined economic recovery, said Director Jerry Nickelsburg.

"Low interest rates and the fact that higher-income earners did not generally lose their jobs meant a strong demand for housing," Nickelsburg said. "So the construction industry did well."

See the See Tier Timeline for a history of the tier system.


Holiday surge:

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.
California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
  News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project



North Central California Counties

New CDC advice: People in counties with High or Substantial levels of community transmission rates should wear masks indoors - Including vaccinated people.

Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days

Total new cases per 100,000 in the past 7 days.
Transmission
Level
New cases
per 100,000
% of positive
NAATs*
Low 0-10 4-5%
Moderate 10-50 5-8%
Substantial 50-100 8-10%
High ≥100 ≥10%
Counties where I have friends and family Average new cases per day per 100,000 last 7 days.
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3   9/10  Vacc
Rate
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 44 53%
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 24 57%
Placer Co 1.3 8.3 37 77 41 56%
Sacramento Co 0.3 11.7 39 73 34 54%
Sutter 13.4 60 72 62 46%
Solano Co 1.3 10.0 27 66 27 53%
Yolo Co 1.8 6.3 33 44 28 58%
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 21 65%
Santa Clara Co 1.3 5.1 18 25 13 73%
San Mateo Co 1.3 6.4 21 23 14 70%
San Francisco Co 22 14 72%
* NAAT - Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests

CDC COVID Data Tracker Map


San Mateo County


Yolo County

CDC chart shows a big jump on Sep 16

Davis:
See Davis Testing


Davis counts per 100K are higher than daily counts because the population is < 100K
Counts on the Yolo County Dashboard do not stabilize for 10-12 days.


Links to County Dashboards.

California
Santa Clara Co
Alameda
Yolo Co
Sutter Co
Solano County Public Health Dashboards
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA
Sacramento
Placer
Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts
Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News


Other

Old News

Risk-Assessment
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October, 2020.
. S>
You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported and get a risk probability.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because case rates were unreliable from the lack of testing.
In "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States" | Nature Communications Sept 2020, They estimate number of infections from February to April, 2020 was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.
See U. Washington study.

I eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.
See Risk Assessment

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.


Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.


Sources:

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate