Don's Home Health Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
last updated 4 Apr 2020
Contents: The Numbers: California | US | World |Important References (CDC, WHO, ...) | The Numbers - Statistics | Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | More Links

Terms:
The virus: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
The disease: Novel coronavirus (Covid-19)
See more at the facts page.

Epidemic - A quick rise in the number of cases of a disease beyond what is normally expected in a geographical area.
Pandemic - A disease that has spread across many countries and affects a large number of people.

California Department of Public health: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

California April 5
13,765 confirmed cases; 317 confirmed deaths
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
California | The COVID Tracking Project


We've shown the percentage of population (cases per 100,000 or "Attack Rate") for a better way to compare them. N. Central California Counties as of April 2, 2020:
County Alameda Contra
Costa
Marin Napa Placer Sacra-
mento
San
Francisco
San
Mateo
Santa
Clara
Sierra Solano Sonoma Sutter Yolo
Confirmed- Cases 588 417 141 22 106 462 583 579 1224 0* 88 115 17 37
Deaths 13 7 7 2 3 18 7 13 42 0 1 1 2 1
cases/100K 38 39 55 16 29 32 66 78 66 0 21 23 18 18
Population 1,559,308 1,081,232 256,802 139,253 361,518 1,450,277 883,305 739,837 1,841,569 3,019 421,624 491,790 95,067 204,162
Pop./sq mi 1,899 1,345 310 177 241 1,459 3,575 999 1,412 3 465 278 156 200
* Sierra county was last updated on March 17
I included population density thinking there would be a correlation with infection rate. It was weak, R-Squared of 0.36. Santa Clara, San Mateo and Marin were outliers with much higher infection rates than population density would predict.
Data reported by county public health departments.
Source: Map: Coronavirus cases in the Bay Area, Northern California | Mercury News
Bay Area coronavirus updates: - SFGate
The confirmed cases are far lower than the actual number of people with the coronavirus, as not everyone exhibits symptoms or seeks medical attention.
Click on the map to enlarge.

  • Cities:
    Davis | Palo Alto
    April 5, 2020 United States:
    Place Cases Deaths
    United States 367,004 10,871

    Note: Lack of testing results in lower numbers.

    State and City cases per 100,000 population as of April 4, 2020
    State Popu-
    lation
    M
    Cases Cases per
    100,000
    California 39.9 11,986 30
    Lousiana 4.7 12,496 269
    Maryland 6.0 3,125 52
    Massachusetts 7.0 10,402 149
    Michigan 10.0 12,744 127
    Minnesota 5.7 789 14
    New Jersey 8.9 29,895 336
    New York 20.1 102,863 512
    Pennsylvania 12.7 8,566 67
    Washington 7.8 6,896 88
    Florida 21.5 10,268 48
    Cities
    Allentown 0.12 1,211 1,009
    Boston 4.31 1,887 44
    Chicago 2.70 2,611 97
    Detroit 3.55 3,969 112
    Los Angeles, County 10.10 4,045 40
    Orange County, CA 3.19 656 21
    New York City 8.75 63,306 723
    New Orleans 0.39 3,966 1,017
    San Francisco 0.88 583 66
    Wash DC 5.32 906 17
    Sarasota County, FL 0.42 99 24
    Somerset County, NJ 0.34 586 172
    Bridgewater, NJ 0.045 98 218
    Bernards Township NJ 0.027 60 222
    Washoe County, NV 0.46 154 33
    See N. Central California County data above.


    World Stats:
    Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

    April 5
    Place Cases Deaths
    World 1,347,251 74,694

    Total Infections per 100,000 population April 4, 2020

    Country Popu-
    lation
    M
    Cases Cases per
    100,000
    South Korea 1 51 10,284 20
    Japan 1 127 3906 3
    Taiwan 1 24 348 1
    Hubei Province China 2 48 67,802 141
    Italy 3 60 132547 221
    Spain 47 136675 291
    Germany 83 103,375 125
    United Kingdom 68 51,608 76
    US 317 367,004 116
    Canada 38 16,667 44
    Mexico 4 129 2,439 125
    1.East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, experience with SARS has helped to keep well ahead of the infectious curve through a combination of early response, pervasive screening, contact tracing, comprehensive testing, and the adroit use of technology. Universal healthcare, clear management structures for the public health response.
    Wired says, "These countries all have social structures and traditions that might make this kind of surveillance and control a little easier than in the don’t-tread-on-me United States"

    2. Wuhan is in Hubei Province. Hubei Province accounts for 80% of the cases in China. Some people think China is still not reporting accurate numbers.

    3. Why is Italy hit so hard:
      a. In Italy, 23 percent of the population is over age 65, compared to the US, where that population is 16 percent.
      b. Italy's young, who frequently show no symptoms, tend to mingle more often with the elderly.
      c. Lower quarantine rate.

    4. Mexico numbers are low, because Coronavirus came later, Only 9 confirmed cases as of March 11, and undercounting.

    More data below


    Important References

    Total confirmed cases versus the number of days since the 100th case.
    Plotted on a logarithmic scale. A linear scale would show an exponential increase before leveling off. See below.
    The 100th case in the United States occurred on March 2.
    As of March 13th, the United States was testing 42 people per million population.
    South Korea is testing over 6,000 per million.
    So, US numbers are probably higher.

    Source: Coronavirus Trajectories - Research and Statistics - Our World in Data
    See also Coronavirus in the U.S.: How Fast It's Growing - The New York Times


    Click to enlarge.
    Source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracker - The New York Times



    Note: US testing is behind other countries so it may be higher.
    Leveling off may not last. With only 1 out of 1,000 having natural immunity from being infected there could be 2nd and 3rd waves. Epidemiologists are saying we may need 50-60% immunity from contracting the disease and/or a vaccine to achieve "herd immunity" and stop it from spreading without extraordinary efforts.

    Active cases seem to be leveling off at about 3 weeks in China and South Korea.
    A maximum of .014% of South Koreas had active cases.
    A maximum of .117% (70,000 out of 60,000,000) of Italians had active cases .
    Hubei Province China, which includes Wuhan, has a population of 60 million and 67,800 thousand infected (0.1% of the population) (84% of China's total) .
    Isolated by distance and lack of transportation western China does not seem to be infected.
    Hunan Province adjoining Hubei only had 1,018 infections.
    Some people have questioned China's reporting.


    China Coronavirus: 81,008 Cases and 3,255 Deaths - Worldometer


    Source: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Our World in Data



    Source: United States Coronavirus - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Coronavirus Symptoms Examples - Worldometer


    More Information:

    More Links:
    Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide | Serious Eats
    How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic, Mar 25
    Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Severity Spectrum - Age - Incubation period - ... | UpToDate Chart: Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US are in line with Italy and Iran - Vox
    Personal Protection Equipment (PPE)
    Scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the Coronavirus.
      Coronavirus Scams: | FTC Consumer Information
      Google search for other coronavirus scam warnings