|Don's Home Health Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19)||Contact|
The virus: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
The disease: Novel coronavirus (Covid-19)
See more at the facts page.
Epidemic - A quick rise in the number of cases of a disease beyond what is normally expected in a geographical area.
Pandemic - A disease that has spread across many countries and affects a large number of people.
California Department of Public health: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
California April 5
13,765 confirmed cases; 317 confirmed deaths
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
California | The COVID Tracking Project
State and City cases per 100,000 population as of April 4, 2020
|Los Angeles, County||10.10||4,045||40|
|Orange County, CA||3.19||656||21|
|New York City||8.75||63,306||723|
|Sarasota County, FL||0.42||99||24|
|Somerset County, NJ||0.34||586||172|
|Bernards Township NJ||0.027||60||222|
|Washoe County, NV||0.46||154||33|
Total Infections per 100,000 population April 4, 2020
|South Korea 1||51||10,284||20|
|Hubei Province China 2||48||67,802||141|
2. Wuhan is in Hubei Province. Hubei Province accounts for 80% of the cases in China. Some people think China is still not reporting accurate numbers.
3. Why is Italy hit so hard:
a. In Italy, 23 percent of the population is over age 65, compared to the US, where that population is 16 percent.
b. Italy's young, who frequently show no symptoms, tend to mingle more often with the elderly.
c. Lower quarantine rate.
4. Mexico numbers are low, because Coronavirus came later, Only 9 confirmed cases as of March 11, and undercounting.
More data below
Total confirmed cases versus the number of days since the 100th case.
Plotted on a logarithmic scale. A linear scale would show an exponential increase before leveling off. See below.
The 100th case in the United States occurred on March 2.
As of March 13th, the United States was testing 42 people per million population.
South Korea is testing over 6,000 per million.
So, US numbers are probably higher.
Source: Coronavirus Trajectories - Research and Statistics - Our World in Data
See also Coronavirus in the U.S.: How Fast It's Growing - The New York Times
Click to enlarge.
Source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracker - The New York Times
Note: US testing is behind other countries so it may be higher.
Leveling off may not last. With only 1 out of 1,000 having natural immunity from being infected there could be 2nd and 3rd waves. Epidemiologists are saying we may need 50-60% immunity from contracting the disease and/or a vaccine to achieve "herd immunity" and stop it from spreading without extraordinary efforts.
Active cases seem to be leveling off at about 3 weeks in China and South Korea.
A maximum of .014% of South Koreas had active cases.
A maximum of .117% (70,000 out of 60,000,000) of Italians had active cases .
Hubei Province China, which includes Wuhan, has a population of 60 million and 67,800 thousand infected (0.1% of the population) (84% of China's total) .
Isolated by distance and lack of transportation western China does not seem to be infected.
Hunan Province adjoining Hubei only had 1,018 infections.
Some people have questioned China's reporting.
China Coronavirus: 81,008 Cases and 3,255 Deaths - Worldometer
Source: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Our World in Data
Source: United States Coronavirus - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Coronavirus Symptoms Examples - Worldometer