Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | Vaccination | Forcasting
last updated 26 Jan 2022

Contents:
Executive Summary
Major News
Objective
The Numbers:
World: Summary | Detail | India | Latin America | Asia | .Africa | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States:: Summary | Detail | Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California: Summary | Detail | CA Current notes: | Tiers: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical)
| North Central California Counties | Holiday surge | Davis and Palo ALto | Yolo County | Santa Clara County | 1918 Flu
News
  • Dec 20 - The Omicron variant accounts for 3/4 of all new cases in the US and is in 40 states.

  • Dec 14 - The U.S. hit 800,000 deaths. That's 2,402 deaths per million (0.24%)
    See Death Rates

  • Nov 26 - South Africa announced a new COVID variant, Omicron, which is more transmissible than the Delta variant, but it seems to be less severe.

    As of December 4th The Omicron variant had been detected in at least 38 countries but no deaths have yet been reported.

  • Nov 1 - Coronavirus death toll hits 5 million worldwide
  • Sept 8 - New cases among children and teenagers have reached the highest weekly level since the pandemic's start, at more than 250,000 for the week ending Sept. 2 — more than a fourth of all new cases that week in the U.S.
  • July 27 - CDC Advises Masking Indoors even for vaccinated people In Counties With Substantial Or High Coronavirus Spread.
    2/3 of counties in the country have substantial or high rates.
    See New mask guidance
  • July 20 - India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions | WSJ
    India has officially recorded more than 414,000 coronavirus deaths, but scientists and researchers have said that number undercounts the real toll.
    They estimate the actual number of deaths is between 3.4 and 4.7 million.
  • July 11 - US Infection rates are over 50% higher than June lows although still only 10% of what they were in January.
    In part it is blamed on the July 4th weekend, but also on vaccine resistance in parts of the country. Nationally, 55.6% of all Americans have received at least one COVID-19 shot. The five states with the biggest two-week jump in cases per capita all had lower vaccination rates: Missouri, 45.9%; Arkansas, 43%; Nevada, 50.9%; Louisiana, 39.2%; and Utah, 49.5%.
  • July 7 - Coronavirus death toll hits 4 million worldwide as the Delta variant spreads.

    North America and Europe are still well off their highs of 450 and 350 cases per million per day.
    Africa's cases cases are concentrated in 6 countries, Tunisia, Nambia, South Africa, Botswana, Libia and Zambia, where the combined case rate is 350 per day per million.

  • June 14 - The CDC declared the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given when there is increased evidence of factors such as transmissibility or severity or reduced effectiveness of vaccines or treatments. See the Delta variant in facts.
See older news below:
Executive Summary

I started this to compare states and counties in N. California where I have friends and family and added some international rates for perspective.
The rest of it has grown as I found interesting charts over the last year and a half.

Some charts here are only updated every several weeks, but you can click on the chart to get the current version.

<
Variants Dates Peak daily infection rate
per 100,000/
Deaths/1M
N. America Europe S. America
Alpha March 2020 - July 2021 46/8 39/7 33/11
Delta July 2021 - Nov. 2021 33/5 50/5 18/5
Omicron * December 2021 - 147/3 154/4 61/1
* As of January 15, 2022.
Number's are 7-day averages.

Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths.
Oceana has one of the highest infection rates as of January 2022, because of a break-out in Australia, but over the course of the virus they have the lowest total death rate, 117 per million, of any continent.


World
Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:
 


Omicron Spread:

Source: What omicron's fast spread could mean | NPR Dec 10

Source: Worldmeter

The UK seems to be following the trend in South Africa; the increase levels off after 20 days.
If the US follows suit we should see a leaveling off about Jan 17.
However, 70% of the UK is fully vaccinated compared to 62% in the US.

Source: OurWorldInData


Some Countries of interest

Regional Cumulative Death Rates


United States:



See Epicenters in the US

California


Summary

Some charts here are only updated every several weeks, but you can click on the chart to get the current version.


World Summary:

Click on Charts to go to the current version.


Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

All Countries: Total cases per day


Regional Stats and some countries of interest.
Jan 14

Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
Total Total % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
Europe 748 102,488,473 1,568,273 13.7% 150 2,097
UK 68 15,066,395 151,612 22.2% 183 2,230
Germany 84 7,885,229 116,098 9.4% 76 1,382
France 65 13,569,675 126,721 20.8% 421 1,941
Italy 60 8,356,514 140,548 13.8% 279 2,327
Russia ‡ 146 10,747,125 319,911 7.4% 125 2,191
Ireland 5 1,078,181 6,035 21.5% 423 1,202
Israel 9 1,718,989 8,298 18.5% 393 892
S. America 435 42,651,273 1,197,438 9.8% 61 2,753
Brazil 214 22,927,203 620,847 10.7% 32 2,901
Columbia 52 5,475,904 130,731 10.5% 57 2,514
N America* 595 77,705,633 1,273,825 13.1% 148 2,141
United States 334 66,209,535 872,086 19.8% 236 2,611
Mexico 131 4,302,069 301,107 3.3% 22 2,302
Canada 38 2,717,982 31,317 7.1% 97 820
Asia 4,461 89,335,098 1,269,492 2.0% 9 285
China 1,439 104,745 4,636 0.01% 0 3
India † 1,391 36,850,962 485,780 2.6% 12 349
S. Korea 51 687,984 6,281 1.3% 7 123
Taiwan 24 17,692 851 0.1% 0.3 35
Africa 1,341 10,425,479 233,744 0.8% 3 174
South Africa 60 3,552,043 93,117 5.9% 11 1,552
Botswana 2 237,678 2,514 9.8% 47 1,039
Oceana 42 1,803,984 4,921 4.3% 250 117
Australia 26 1,632,958 2,627 6.3% 423 101
New Zealand 5 15,001 52 0.3% 1 10
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
* Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland are considered part of North America.

Number of deaths are significantly undercounted.
    Estimated % counted
United States 63% 
Mexico        35%
W. Europe     70-80%
Russia        18%

See estimated actual death counts at U. Washington Study below.
The major countries (population > 10 million) with the highest death rate are.

Peru    6,002  Bulgaria 4,331  Hungary 3,868  
Czechia 3,242  Romania  3,041  Brazil  2,874

If you adjust for the undercounting in Mexico and Russia their rates would be:
Mexico 4,862 deaths per million
Russia 8,358 deaths per million

Regional Death Rates: S. America 2,732; N. America 1,999; Europe 1,968
Asia, Africa and Oceana all have less than 300 deaths per million.
New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all had less than 100 deaths per million.

A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

Because Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths we don’t compute a world rate. There are smaller countries in Asia and Africa who's infection and death rates are similar to other developed countries.

See World Countries Cumulative Cases and Deaths below
See US States Cumulative Deaths below


Vaccination Rate:

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),

reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths. Around the World they are half the actual rate

-Countries with the highest actual (estimated) death rates, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
1 United States 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed in the IHME report.

Note: Deaths in India following a devastating spring surge is likely close to 10 times higher than the country’s official count according to a July 2021 Wall Street Journal report.
Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.

* 7 day average (all are 7-day averages)

See Modern East Asian DNA hints at an ancient coronavirus outbreak | Science News

More World Data


United States:
Worldmeter chart


CDC Map

January 23, 2022
US States where I have friends and family.
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New Total New % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 333 70,206,220 579,433 862,494 1870 21.1% 174 2,590 5.6 64%
New Jersey 8.9 2,067,692 10,455 30,759 96 23.2% 117 3,456 10.8 72%
New York 19.5 4,832,399 27,804 63,824 230 24.8% 143 3,273 11.8 74%
Massachusetts 6.9 1,536,256 11,354 21,402 51 22.3% 165 3,102 7.4 76%
Pennsylvania 12.8 2,572,500 16,254 39,538 131 20.1% 127 3,089 10.2 65%
Illinois 12.7 2,773,362 18,640 33,446 101 21.8% 147 2,634 8.0 66%
Florida 21.5 5,351,391 30,795 63,576 8 24.9% 143 2,957 0.4 65%
California 39.5 7,450,319 85,930 78,870 107 18.9% 218 1,997 2.7 68%
Nevada 3.1 614,505 4,268 8,736 4 19.8% 138 2,818 1.3 58%
Arizona 7.3 1,752,552 20,397 25,623 59 24.0% 279 3,510 8.1 58%
See State Death Rates
See US Epicenters
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021


California and Northern Counties where I have friends and family


January 7, 2022
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New Total New % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 333 60,669,808 650,513 858,882 1489 18.2% 195 2,579 4.5 63%
California 39.510 5,838,915 65,521 77,257 74 14.8% 166 1,955 1.9 67%
San Francisco Co 0.875 73,660 1,461 692 8.4% 167 791 82%
San Mateo Co 0.770 67,918 1,341 638 8.8% 174 829 81%
Santa Clara Co 1.938 188,711 3,157 1,966 9.7% 163 1,014 82%
Alameda Co 1.682 148,560 2,318 1,581 8.8% 138 940 79%
Sierra Co 0.003 414 1 4 13.6% 46 1,316 53%
Napa Co 0.138 15,522 205 108 11.2% 149 783 73%
sanoma Co 0.489 50,130 890 419 10.3% 182 857 74%
Yolo Co 0.221 24,006 350 270 10.9% 159 1,224 68%
Solano Co 0.448 52,452 538 383 11.7% 120 855 64%
Sacramento Co 1.552 188,095 1,823 2,565 12.1% 117 1,653 65%
Placer Co 0.398 43,766 363 495 11.0% 91 1,244 67%
Sutter Co 0.097 15,844 96 195 16.3% 99 2,010 57%
Davis 0.100 4942 175 22 4.9% 210† 220 0.0
Moss Beach 0.004 92 0.6 2.6% 17

† Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow. But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate.
I attribute that to 30,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back.

* Sierra County had only 12 new cases from Feb 15, 2021 to July 4, 2021 with a 7 day average of close to 0.
At the beginning of july, the beginning of September and middle of October they had an outbreak raising the 7-day average to 3 cases per day making the rate per 100,000 100 cases per day.
With a population of just over 3,000 a small outbreak results in a high rate (new cases per 100,000)
But their cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is the lowest of all counties represented here.


More United States Data
California:

North Central California Counties
Counties where I have friends and family Average new cases per day per 100,000 last 7 days.
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3   11/1  1/7
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 20 195
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 15 166
San Francisco Co 22 7 167
San Mateo Co 1.3 6.4 21 23 8 174
Santa Clara Co 1.3 5.1 18 25 8 163
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 8 149
Yolo Co 1.8 6.3 33 44 18 159
Solano Co 1.3 10 27 66 11 120
Sacramento Co 0.3 11.7 39 73 14 117
Placer Co 1.3 8.3 37 77 24 91
Sutter 13.4 60 72 22 99
sanoma 182
Davis 210
North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.

Surges following Delta and Omicron variants.
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Jan 7
United States 333 60,669,808 650,513 858,882 1489 18.2% 195 2,579 4.5 63%
California 39.510 5,838,915 65,521 77,257 74 14.8% 166 1,955 1.9 67%
Dec 21
United States 333.0 52,372,978 155,384 831,836 15.7% 47 2,498 62%
California 39.5 5,251,204 9,506 76,151 62 13.3% 24 1,927 1.6 66%
Nov 1
United States 331.0 46,972,494 66,959 768,465 1,082 14.2% 20 2,322 3.3 58%
California 39.5 4,813,611 5,754 72,355 83.0 12.2% 15 1,831 2.1 61%
Sep 10
United States 331 41,741,693 145,553 677,017 1,378 12.6% 44 2,045 4.2 53%
California 39.510 4,474,673 9,429 67,100 112 11.3% 24 1,698 2.8 57%
Sep 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
California 39.510 4,421,842 13,901 66,497 106 11.2% 35 1,683 2.7 56%
Aug 3
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
California 39.510 3,985,729 9,104 64,556 38 10.1% 23 1,634 1.0 63%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
California 39.510 3,856,595 3,454 64,088 31 9.8% 8.7 1,622 0.8 61.0
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%
California 39.510 3,795,479 889 63,008 23 9.6% 2 1,595 0.6 52%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average

New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.


More California Data
End of Summary
Related Notes::Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Good Twitter feeds

World Stats:


Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.


Click on Charts to go to the current version.
You can mouse over charts there to get more information.

Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.


NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC

Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.

Hot Spots

% Vaccinated:

Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

Those who are vaccinated are about six times less likely to contract the virus and 14 times less likely to die from it.

COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.

Deaths:

New Cases driven by largest countries.

Spikes in Daily Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn

Note: A report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief economic advisor, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University said the actual number of deaths in India was likely between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. This is 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported, so would put India at the top of the list of death rates.

World Total Deaths:

Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.

A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths instead of the 460,000 reported, increasing the world total to 8 Million.
See India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions | WSJ


Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a
May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
1 United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
2 India 654,395 221,181 34% 470 2 1391
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed here.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.

23 Countries of Interest - Infection Rates

See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

Countries with the highest peak infection rates out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M),
Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.
Country Date New Cases
North America Jan 12, 2021 470
Europe Nov 2, 2020 370
South America June 3, 2021 334
Asia May 5, 2021 107
Africa Jan 11,2021 24
Belgium Oct 30, 2020 1,536
Ireland Jan 10, 2021 1,323
Portugal Jan 28, 2021 1,264
Israel Sept 14, 2021 1,254
Czechia 10/27/20 1,200
Hungary 03/26/21 960
Botswana 08/07/21 946
United Kingdom Jan 10, 2021 881
France Nov 3, 2020 832
Austria 11/14/20 806
Spain Jan 26, 2021 791
United States Jan 11, 2021 757
Argentina june 1, 2021 728
Turkey Apr 21, 2021 714
Nambia 06/30/21 695
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
Columbia June 6, 2021 527
Sweden May 4, 2021 500
Costa Rica May 18, 2021 483
South Africa Jan 11, 2021 321
Germany Dec 22, 2020 306
Peru 04/13/21 297
India May 6, 2021 282
Canada Apr 16, 2021 232
Russia May 13, 2021 193
Mexico Dec 24, 2020 81

Total:
Note: There are small countries (< 5 Million population) with more cases and deaths.
See Worldmeter and click on headings to sort.

Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported.


According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers. Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600
Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746
Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547
Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970
Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910
Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184
United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075
Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912
Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787
United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722
South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676
Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647
Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051
France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029
Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635
Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437
India 654,395 221,181 34% 470

Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand


See More International Stats


ccc

United States:

July 15
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Jan 7
United States 333 60,669,808 650,513 858,882 1489 18.2% 195 2,579 4.5 63%
Dec 21
United States 333.0 52,372,978 155,384 831,836 15.7% 47 2,498 62%
Nov 1
United States 331.0 46,972,494 66,959 768,465 1,082 14.2% 20 2,322 3.3 58%
Sept 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
August 1
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average.


See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker

COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death

See 1918 Flu

Total Deaths per 1 Million Jan 24
1 Mississippi 3607
2 Arizona 3520
3 New Jersey 3468
4 Alabama 3432
5 Louisiana 3307
6 New York 3288
7 Tennessee 3226
8 Arkansas 3159
9 Michigan 3158
10 West Virginia 3153
11 Massachusetts 3121
12 Pennsylvania 3105
13 Indiana 3089
14 Rhode Island 3071
15 Georgia 3051
16 Oklahoma 3001
17 New Mexico 3001
18 Florida 2980
19 South Dakota 2946
20 South Carolina 2932
21 Kentucky 2857
22 Nevada 2844
23 Montana 2793
24 Missouri 2776
25 Wyoming 2766
26 Ohio 2736
27 Connecticut 2716
28 North Dakota 2715
29 Texas 2709
USA Total 2694
30 Illinois 2668
31 Iowa 2636
32 Delaware 2547
33 Kansas 2518
34 Idaho 2424
35 Maryland 2189
36 Wisconsin 2063
37 Minnesota 2010
38 California 2001
39 Colorado 1966
40 North Carolina 1934
41 Virginia 1868
42 Nebraska 1845
43 District Of Columbia 1807
44 New Hampshire 1578
45 Alaska 1420
46 Oregon 1411
47 Washington 1383
48 Utah 1266
49 Maine 1263
50 Vermont 835
51 Hawaii 809
Note: 1,000 deaths per 1 Million is 0.1%
Source: Worldmeter



See Positivity Rate.
The epicenters keeps changing:
The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29 Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.
In July 2020 because of their new case rates and population, Florida, Texas and California accounted for 19% of all new cases in the world and more than a third of the new cases in the U.S. with a total of 27,574 new cases per day recorded.
Case rates in those states droped by 2/3 in September.
in January 2021 the U.S. accounted for 34% of all new cases in the world.
In April 2021 the world hit a record of 823,439 new cases, 41% from India.
See World leaders.

The five states with the biggest two-week jump in cases per capita in July 2021 all had lower vaccination rates: Missouri, 45.9%; Arkansas, 43%; Nevada, 50.9%; Louisiana, 39.2%; and Utah, 49.5%.

States with rates 50% higher than the national average are in bold.
In January there were only a couple of outliers so we bolded the top 10.
State Daily New Cases per 100,000
April
Peak
Jul 15 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 2 Dec 2 Jan 4 Feb 3Mar 3Apr 7Jun 6Jul 17 Aug 14 Sep 9Oct 5Nov 12Dec 20Jan 14
US 10 20 10 15 24 50 66 45 19 19 4 9 39 44 30 23 47 243
New York 51 4 6 7 10 37 71 53 32 34 3 3 21 27 29 35 80 324
New Jersey 39 4 6 8 18 46 49 51 34 47 3 4 19 22 20 15 74 289
Michigan 16 6 11 35 72 27 17 14 70 4 2 14 23 40 37 63 183
Pennsylvania 13 18 53 56 42 20 33 4 2 16 28 37 37 57 219
California 3 20 11 8 10 37 96 42 11 7 2 6 31 16 10 16 19 300
Florida 6 56 13 12 20 39 62 46 25 24 9 30 101 66 19 7 40 286
Arizona 4 51 8 9 19 62 112 64 16 9 5 12 38 38 38 47 40 232
Texas 3 37 13 13 20 38 63 70 25 10 4 9 50 62 27 10 23 214
Idaho 37 16 28 45 70 50 55 84 28 18 101
North Dakota 13 38 60 139 89 26 24 55 81 64 41 217
South Dakota 27 55 134 100 48 43 42 36 39 222
Wisconsin 14 15 43 80 70 44 53 52 69 274
Iowa 24 29 66 64 43 45 41 48 158
Utah 20 13 33 55 86 85 43 7 16 31 44 40 0 304
Montana 12 42 77 79 36 84 46 0
Nebraska 14 29 60 93 50 25 44 0
Wyoming 25 61 93 38 9 14 45 80 43 0 163
Minnesota 12 20 46 115 34 34 49 64 56
Rhode Island 15 42 114 96 51 35 28 23 120 486
New Mexico 14 38 88 59 50 52
Indiana 18 44 87 71 64
Nevada 16 27 75 68 23 35 0
Ohio 67 64 47 37 79 230
Tennessee 72 93 40 19 56 74 0
Kansas 85 36 14 41 54 231
Oklahoma 84 52 15 54 59 0
Arkansas 86 51 28 5 34 74 56 0 281
Georgia 80 51 28 12 54 73 0
South Carolina 75 67 21 61 92 41 0 291
North Carolina 68 52 23 15 49 36 0 255
Colorado 25 10 6 54 0 260
Washington 7 8 9 0
Missouri 31 45
Louisiana 26 126 50 0 271
mississippi 12 110 65 0 231
Alabama 14 81 77 0
Alaska 83 121 59 0 258
W. Virginia 85 75 43 0
Kentucky 89 57 21 0
Vermont 58 82 286
New hampshire 42 90
Illinois 80 233
Maine 70
Massachusetts 80 303
Delaware 342
Source: Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021


See Epicenters
State and City cases and deaths per capita
I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.
Covid-19 Vaccinations: County and State Tracker - The New York Times

California

Click on Charts to go to the current version.


Aug 3
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Sep 10
United States 331 41,741,693 145,553 677,017 1,378 12.6% 44 2,045 4.2 53%
California 39.510 4,474,673 9,429 67,100 112 11.3% 24 1,698 2.8 57%
Sep 3
United States 331 40,805,259 163,852 666,219 1,308 12.3% 50 2,013 4.0 53%
California 39.510 4,421,842 13,901 66,497 106 11.2% 35 1,683 2.7 56%
Aug 3
United States 331 36,023,120 86,710 630,447 365 10.9% 26 1,905 1.1 50%
California 39.510 3,985,729 9,104 64,556 38 10.1% 23 1,634 1.0 53%
July 15
United States 331 34,929,856 30,741 624,606 270 10.6% 9.3 1,887 0.8 48.4
California 39.510 3,856,595 3,454 64,088 31 9.8% 8.7 1,622 0.8 51.4
June 1
United States 331 34,204,374 13,956 612,203 379 10.3% 4 1,850 1.1 42%
California 39.510 3,795,479 889 63,008 23 9.6% 2 1,595 0.6 43%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average


Regions:

North Central Califronia Counties Map

See county data below.


CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.
Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov


California Reopens:
On Tuesday June 15th California's four-color tiered restrictions on business capacity and activity will end.

On June 15, capacity and distancing restrictions will be lifted for most businesses and activities. Large-scale indoor events will have vaccination or negative test requirements for attendees through at least October 1.
Testing must be conducted within 72 hours before event start time (both PCR and antigen are acceptable). Results of the test must be available prior to entry into the event or venue.
Attendees who do not verify vaccination status for outdoor Mega Events should be asked to wear face coverings.


Vaccine Verification / Negative Testing Required for Indoor mega events
Recommended for Outdoor mega events
Capacity Limitations No restrictions
Physical Distancing No restrictions for attendees, customers and guests
Masking Follow current CDPH Guidance for Face Coverings
Travelers Follow CDC recommendations and CDPH Travel Advisory
CDPH Guidance for Face Coverings
in the following settings where masks are required for everyone, regardless of vaccination status:

  • On public transit (examples: airplanes, ships, ferries, trains, subways, buses, taxis, and ride-shares) and in transportation hubs (examples: airport, bus terminal, marina, train station, seaport or other port, subway station, or any other area that provides transportation)
  • Indoors in K-12 schools, childcare and other youth settings.
    Note: This may change as updated K-12 schools guidance is forthcoming, pending updates for K-12 operational guidance from the CDC.
  • Healthcare settings (including long term care facilities)
  • State and local correctional facilities and detention centers
  • Homeless shelters, emergency shelters[8] and cooling centers
Additionally, masks are required for unvaccinated individuals in indoor public settings and businesses (examples: retail, restaurants, theaters, family entertainment centers, meetings, state and local government offices serving the public).

See Beyond the Blueprint Framework for Industry and Business Sectors, with Limited Exceptions | CDPH.ca.gov

See Blueprint for a Safer Economy | covid19.ca.gov

The Mercury News says, Stricter COVID rules didn't hurt California's economy.
California is down 1.4 million workers since we learned the word "coronavirus".
But, Among large states, those with strict pandemic rules performed as well and in some cases better than their laissez-faire counterparts. California's GDP shrunk less than that of Texas and Florida in 2020, all of which outperformed the United States as a whole. Washington, which had some of the strictest pandemic restrictions in the country, had the lowest GDP loss among large states.

The findings from the UCLA Anderson Forecast are "diametrically opposed" to the narrative common among some COVID-19 regulation opponents that the public health orders undermined economic recovery, said Director Jerry Nickelsburg.

"Low interest rates and the fact that higher-income earners did not generally lose their jobs meant a strong demand for housing," Nickelsburg said. "So the construction industry did well."

See the See Tier Timeline for a history of the tier system.


Holiday surge:

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.
California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
  News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project



North Central California Counties

Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days in Counties where I have friends and family Average new cases per day per 100,000 last 7 days.
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3   11/1  1/7
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 20 195
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 15 166
San Francisco Co 22 7 167
San Mateo Co 1.3 6.4 21 23 8 174
Santa Clara Co 1.3 5.1 18 25 8 163
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 8 149
Yolo Co 1.8 6.3 33 44 18 159
Solano Co 1.3 10 27 66 11 120
Sacramento Co 0.3 11.7 39 73 14 117
Placer Co 1.3 8.3 37 77 24 91
Sutter 13.4 60 72 22 99
sanoma 182
Davis 210
* NAAT - Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests

CDC COVID Data Tracker Map


January 7, 2022
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New Total New % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 333 60,669,808 650,513 858,882 1489 18.2% 195 2,579 4.5 63%
California 39.510 5,838,915 65,521 77,257 74 14.8% 166 1,955 1.9 67%
San Francisco Co 0.875 73,660 1,461 692 8.4% 167 791 82%
San Mateo Co 0.770 67,918 1,341 638 8.8% 174 829 81%
Santa Clara Co 1.938 188,711 3,157 1,966 9.7% 163 1,014 82%
Alameda Co 1.682 148,560 2,318 1,581 8.8% 138 940 79%
Sierra Co 0.003 414 1 4 13.6% 46 1,316 53%
Napa Co 0.138 15,522 205 108 11.2% 149 783 73%
sanoma Co 0.489 50,130 890 419 10.3% 182 857 74%
Yolo Co 0.221 24,006 350 270 10.9% 159 1,224 68%
Solano Co 0.448 52,452 538 383 11.7% 120 855 64%
Sacramento Co 1.552 188,095 1,823 2,565 12.1% 117 1,653 65%
Placer Co 0.398 43,766 363 495 11.0% 91 1,244 67%
Sutter Co 0.097 15,844 96 195 16.3% 99 2,010 57%
Davis 0.100 4942 175 22 4.9% 210† 220
Moss Beach 0.004 92 0.6 2.6% 17

† Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow. But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate. I attribute that to 30,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back.

San Mateo County


Yolo County

Davis:
See Davis Testing

 
Counts on the Yolo County Dashboard do not stabilize for 8-10 days; Cases may continue to grow over that time,


Links to County Dashboards.

California, San Francisco Co, Santa Clara, Santa Clara Co, San Mateo, Alameda Co, Alameda, Sierra, Yolo, Yolo Co, Napa, sanoma, Solano, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Sutter Co, Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News


Other

Old News

Risk-Assessment
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October, 2020.
. S>
You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported and get a risk probability.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because case rates were unreliable from the lack of testing.
In "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States" | Nature Communications Sept 2020, They estimate the actual number of infections from February to April, 2020 was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.
See U. Washington study.

I eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.
See Risk Assessment

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.


Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.


Sources:

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate