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Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | Forcasting |
Contents: The Numbers:
World: Regions | Latin America | Asia | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States: Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California:: CA Current notes: | Regional Stay At Home Order | Vaccination Phases: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical): | North Central California Counties | Holiday surge
Yolo & Santa Clara Counties:: Yolo County | Santa Clara County | Davis & Palo Alto | Yolo County Vaccination Info
What's new other than updated charts:
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October.
. You specify the group size
and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
and Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States | Nature Communications Sept 2020.
We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.
Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.
Regional share of daily confirmed cases:
This chart hasn't been updated since December.
Case Rate Dec 16, 2020
Region | Population | New Cases | New Cases per Million |
---|---|---|---|
US | 331,000,000 | 220,386 | 666 |
Europe | 747,636,026 | 345,000 | 461 |
Latin America | 653,962,331 | 68,000 | 104 |
Middle East | 411,000,000 | 20,000 | 49 |
Asia | 4,641,054,775 | 60,000 | 13 |
Africa | 1,347,333,004 | 19,000 | 14 |
See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia
January 2
We've included the countries out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M), with the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection. Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.
NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC
Other countries -
Deaths per Million: Pakistan - 438; Ireland - 423; Israel - 356; Belgium - 176; Peru - 118; Hungary - 117; Argentina - 100; Switzerland - 100; Chile - 91; Bolivia - 82; Netherlands - 76; Iran - 68; Ireland - 53; Costa Rica - 47; Israel - 46; Australia - 36; South Korea - 2; Pakistan - 5; New Zeland - 5; China - 3; New Zeland - 0.5Taiwan - 0.3
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%
During an outbreak of a pandemic the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease. Actual infections are greater than confirmed cases and there is a lag between case counts and deaths.
See more at Mortality Risk of COVID-19 - Our World in Data
See also:
Mortality Analyses - Case Fatality Rate | Johns Hopkins
Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.
Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins
See Positivity Rate for more.
10 most populated countries Total and % infected. Dec 21
Pop Million | Total Cases M | % infected | |
---|---|---|---|
United States | 330 | 19.13 | 5.8% |
Brazil | 212 | 7.48 | 3.5% |
Russia | 143 | 3.02 | 2.1% |
Mexico | 129 | 1.38 | 1.1% |
India | 1,325 | 10.21 | 0.8% |
Bangladesh | 163 | 0.509 | 0.3% |
Indonesia | 273 | 0.713 | 0.3% |
Pakistan | 233 | 0.473 | 0.2% |
China | 1,394 | 0.96 | 0.1% |
Nigeria | 214 | 0.084 | 0.04% |
In early June when Brazil had the highest number of total new cases in the world, their government removed comprehensive numbers on coronavirus cases and deaths from the Health Ministry's website, claiming without offering evidence that state officials had been reporting inflated figures to secure more federal funding. The numbers were later brought back after a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing the data.
United Kingdom - England - Jan 9
New Variant:
UK and Ireland case rates have shot up since new variants of COVID-19 were discovered.
The U.K. variant was reported on December 14.
Some people are calling it a strain but a strain of a virus has distinct properties and a particular immune response. These are variants.
The South African variant was from three people from Ireland who traveled to South Africa over the Christmas holidays. They think it has been contained as of January 9.
The U.K. variant is more common than the South African variant in Ireland.
Estimates are that the new variant is 50 - 70% more contagious than the previously circulating form of the virus.
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
|||
United Kingdom | 66,650,000 | 3,072,349 | 59,653 | 81,431 | 915 | 4.6% | 90 | 1,222 | 13.7 |
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate | % vacc- inated |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
||||
Jan 15 | |||||||||||
United States | 331,000,000 | 24,137,064 | 235,607 | 402,397 | 3,384 | 7.3% | 71 | 1216 | 10.2 | 11.4% | 3.7% |
United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer
See Positivity Rate.
A Columbia University report states that as of October more than half of the COVID-19 fatalities in the United States were "avoidable". US's higher mortality rate is because of a confluence of factors, stemming from delayed responses, to missed opportunities, to inadequate guidance, coordination, and leadership. Each action - or inaction - had a substantial role in distinguishing the U.S. response from other developed nations.
South Korea and the U.S. both discovered their first case on January 20, 2020.
By March 16th, over 250,000 South Koreans had been tested - or about one in every 200 citizens. The U.S. didn't reach the same proportional testing rate for several weeks until April 4th.
130,000 - 210,000 AVOIDABLE COVID-19 DEATHS - AND COUNTING - IN THE U.S. | National Center for Disaster Preparedness | Earth Institute - Columbia University
Hot Spots Bold - States 50% higher than national average thru Dec 2 and 30% higher after that.
State | Daily New Cases per 100,000 |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April Peak | July 15 | Sep. 8 | Oct. 8 | Nov 2 | Dec 2 | Jan 4 | Jan 15 | |
New York | 51 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 71 | 89 |
New Jersey | 39 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 46 | 49 | |
California | 3 | 20 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 96 | 105 |
Florida | 6 | 56 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 62 | |
Arizona | 4 | 51 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 62 | 112 | 122 |
Texas | 3 | 37 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 38 | 63 | |
North Dakota | 13 | 38 | 60 | 139 | 89 | 26 | ||
South Dakota | 27 | 55 | 134 | 100 | 48 | |||
Idaho | 37 | 16 | 28 | 45 | 70 | 50 | ||
Wisconsin | 14 | 15 | 43 | 80 | 70 | 44 | ||
Iowa | 24 | 29 | 66 | 64 | 43 | |||
Utah | 20 | 13 | 33 | 55 | 86 | 85 | 98 | |
Montana | 12 | 42 | 77 | 79 | 36 | |||
Nebraska | 14 | 29 | 60 | 93 | 50 | |||
Wyoming | 25 | 61 | 93 | 38 | ||||
Minnesota | 12 | 20 | 46 | 115 | 34 | |||
Rhode Island | 15 | 42 | 114 | 96 | 92 | |||
New Mexico | 14 | 38 | 88 | 59 | ||||
Indiana | 18 | 44 | 87 | 71 | ||||
Nevada | 16 | 27 | 75 | 68 | ||||
Ohio | 67 | 64 | ||||||
Tennessee | 72 | 93 | 74 | |||||
Kansas | 85 | 68 | ||||||
Oklahoma | 84 | 95 | ||||||
Arkansas | 86 | 89 | ||||||
Georgia | 17 | 30 | 80 | 86 | ||||
South Carolina | 88 | |||||||
Kentucky | 80 | |||||||
US | 10 | 20 | 10 | 15 | 24 | 50 | 66 | 71 |
Vaccination Progress by state
People per 100K who have received the first vaccine dose.
Top states and others I'm interested in.
South Dakota | 5,451 | New Jersey | 2,486 | |
West Virginia | 5,376 | Washington | 2,472 | |
Colorado | 3,789 | Pennsylvania | 2,385 | |
New York | 2,979 | California | 1,981 | |
Florida | 2,949 | Nevada | 1,904 | |
Illinois | 2,613 | Arizona | 1,894 |
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate | % vacc- inated |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
||||
Jan 15 | |||||||||||
United States | 331,000,000 | 24,137,064 | 235,607 | 402,397 | 3,384 | 7.3% | 71 | 1216 | 10.2 | 11.4% | 3.7% |
California | 39,510,000 | 2,925,929 | 42,304 | 32,971 | 536 | 7.4% | 107 | 834 | 13.6 | 12.6% | 3.0% |
See county data below.
Click on Charts to go to the current version.
Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov
Region | Doses Administered | |
---|---|---|
1/8 | 1/16 | |
1 | 226,660 | 527,768 |
2 | 150,583 | 329,813 |
3 | 11,418 | 24,253 |
4 | 31,708 | 69,890 |
5 | 20,893 | 46,446 |
6 | 96,005 | 202,975 |
Total | 537,267 | 1,201,145 |
% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
US | 12,279,180 | |
3.7% |
California Vaccination Phases
Vaccines - COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov
News:
Phase 1A | Phase 1B | Phase 1C | Phase 2 |
---|---|---|---|
2.4 million people | 15 million people Note this number is much higher than a number the Governor reported on Jan 4 | 13 million people | 704 K people |
Underway1 | Likely January - February1 | Likely March onward | Likely Summer or Fall |
|
1B Tier One:
|
|
Yolo County Vaccination Info below
As of Jan 7th California aims to immunize 1 million people within the next 10 days.
1B Tier Two will start when Tier One is completed.
Within a Tier there is no priority
There is no state registry to sign-up.
General public should coordinate with your healthcare provider.
Second shot:
Pfizer - 21 days
Moderna - 28 days
2nd shots should take presidence over 1st shots, but as of Jan. 8 there was a controversy over what to do if there is not enough doses for both.
Phase 2 tentatively scheduled for Spring.
Children:
Currently, COVID-19 vaccines are not recommended for children:
Links:
See Yolo Co below
- CA COVID-19 News on Twitter
- @GavinNewsom
- @CAgovernor
- Vaccines - When can I get vaccinated |COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov
- Essential Workforce/ Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers (ECIW) lists 131 Essential Job Categories
COVID-19 Hotline 833 422-4255
Email: covidcallcenter@cdph.ca.gov
- V-safe After Vaccination Health Checker | CDC is an app that notifies you when your 2nd dose is due.
A friend said on Fri 1/14 "I just called my medical group (woodland clinic) and was told that I was the first person that called after a memo had come down, 30 minutes prior, to open vaccination clinic appointments."
Another responded, "I just called, a long wait on the phone, but worth it. I have appointments for next Friday"
Yolo County COVID-19 Vaccine Availability - Interest form - The goal of this interest card is to obtain information so that as each Phase and Tier progress, the County can alert you to the availability of the vaccine.
Healthcare Provider Links:
News from UC Davis Health 916 703-5555
UC Davis Health launches COVID-19 patient vaccinations (video) Jan 12.
See more UC Davis Healthcare Vaccination links.
COVID-19 vaccine | Kaiser Permanente What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine 866-454-8855
As of Friday 1/15 they say they are still in Phase 1A, but also include people 65 and older.
COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions | Sutter Health
Yolo County plans to launch an online portal to the public on the week of Jan 11 to begin the process of screening people for Phase 1B.
See California Timeline for details on the timeline.
Tiers:
August 28
County risk Level - Tier | New Cases/ 100K | Positivity rate | Activities |
---|---|---|---|
1 Widespread | >7 | > 8% | Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed |
2 Substantial | 4-7 | 5-8% | Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed |
3 Moderate | 1-3.9 | 2-4.9% | Some indoor business operations are open with modifications |
4 Minimal | < 1 | <2% | Most indoor business operations are open with modifications |
See Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response for specific guidance.
Dec Regional Stay At Home Order
The state is broken into 5 regions.
The Regional Stay Home Order, announced December 3, 2020, will go into effect within 24 hours in regions with less than 15% ICU availability. It prohibits private gatherings of any size, closes sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and requires 100% masking and physical distancing in all others.
The order will remain in effect for at least 3 weeks and, after that period.
All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands, or as otherwise authorized.
See Regional at the California Timeline for details.
Also About COVID-19 restrictions - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response | COVID-19.ca.gov
California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov
California | The COVID Tracking Project
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
|||
California | 39,510,000 | 2,925,929 | 42,304 | 32971 | 536 | 7.4% | 107 | 834 | 13.6 | 12.6 |
United States | 331,000,000 | 24,137,064 | 235,607 | 402,397 | 3,384 | 7.3% | 71 | 1216 | 10.2 | 11.4 |
North Central Califronia Counties Map
The number in the charts below are new cases per 100,000. The source documents use other numbers. Total new cases and weekly total.
Bay area:
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate | % vacc- inated |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
||||
Jan 15 | |||||||||||
United States | 331,000,000 | 24,137,064 | 235,607 | 402,397 | 3,384 | 7.3% | 71 | 1216 | 10.2 | 11.4% | 3.7% |
California | 39,510,000 | 2,925,929 | 42,304 | 32,971 | 536 | 7.4% | 107 | 834 | 13.6 | 12.6% | 3.0% |
Yolo Co | 220,500 | 9,747 | 127 | 131 | 0.7 | 4.4% | 58 | 594 | 3.2 | 2.0% | |
Jan 7 | |||||||||||
Davis | 70,560 | 1,430 | 17 | 14 | 2.0% | 24 | 198 | ||||
Because the population of Davis is less than 100K the rate per 100K is higher than the per day total | |||||||||||
Jan 15 | |||||||||||
Santa Clara Co | 1,937,570 | 91,466 | 1,481 | 1,065 | 9 | 4.7% | 76 | 550 | 4.8 | 2.1% | |
Palo Alto | 67,019 | 1,107 | 17 | 1.7% | 26 |
Places where I have friends or family across the country.
November 21
Place | Popu- lation | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | Posi- tivity Rate |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | New * | Total | New* | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M | New /1M |
|||
United States | 331,000,000 | 12,341,101 | 172,205 | 261,051 | 1,481 | 3.7% | 52 | 789 | 4.5 | 6.7% |
New Jersey | 8,882,000 | 313,863 | 3,855 | 15,0071 | 3.5% | 43 | 1,690 | 7.9% | ||
California | 39,510,000 | 1,072,272 | 10,800 | 18,557 | 62 | 2.7% | 27 | 470 | 1.6 | 6.4% |
Sacramento Co | 1,540,975 | 36,630 | 464 | 576 | 2.4% | 30 | 374 | |||
Placer Co | 398,329 | 6,224 | 77 | 68 | 1.6% | 19 | 171 | |||
Napa | 137,744 | 2,884 | 48 | 17 | 2.1% | 35 | 123 | 0.00 | ||
Sutter | 96,971 | 4,370 | 112 | 23 | 4.5% | 115 | 237 | |||
Washoe Co, NV | 471,519 | 22,407 | 359 | 246 | 4.8% | 76 | 522 | 16.5% | ||
DuPage Co, IL | 922921 | 41,602 | 692 | 703 | 4 | 4.5% | 75 | 762 | 4.3 | |
Sarasota Co, FL | 433742 | 12,319 | 371 | 166 | 2.8% | 86 | 383 | 6.7% |
California
Santa Clara Co
Alameda
Yolo Co
Sutter Co
Solano County Public Health Dashboards
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA
Sacramento
Placer
Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts
Washoe Co. NV
There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.