Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | California Reopening Stages
last updated 12 August 2020
Some data only updated once per week.
Click on charts to get the current versions.

Contents: The Numbers: World | Latin America | Asia | Case Positivity Rate | US | Epicenters | US Forecasts | Some State & City numbers |
California | North Central California | Tahoe | Yolo County | Placer County | Santa Clara County | Reopening Surge |
Important References (CDC, WHO, ...) | Primary Sources | Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Reopening Surge | More Links | Good Twitter feeds

I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
See more about the rational for what's here.
World Stats:
Click on charts to get a current version.

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

August 12
Place Cases Deaths
World 20,762,382 751,073

Click on Charts to go to the current version.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

Although the number of deaths per million in Asia is still fairly low (< 1 to 4) their share of the total is larger because of total population.

See also Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries reopen | Financial Times

August 10 2020

Russia is listed under Asia
new total cases
Source: Our World

Latin American
August 10

Click on the chart for an updated version.


See The Coronavirus in Latin America | AS/COA

Asia:

On May 12, the Washington Post reported that Labanon, Iran, and Wuhan had reimposed lockdowns following and increase in infections. South Korea also tightened some restrictions that were removed.

More

Test Positivity Rate
August 3
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Rates range from 50% in Bolivia to 0.4% in Australia
The US is at 8%
See Positivity Rate for more.


United States: Aug 11, 2020
Population Cases Cases
/100K		 New
Cases		 New
/1M		 Deaths Deaths
/1M		 % Positive
Tests.
US 331,000,000 5,356,629 1,618 55,141 167 168,992 511 8%

CDC COVID Data Tracker

United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer

The epicenters keeps changing:
Reopening sees surge in cases:
In April New York and New Jersey with the highest rates and California (largest population), accounted for 46% of all the cases in the country.
See NY,NJ,CA below

A surge after reopening in the South and Southwest changed the epicenter in July. Florida, Texas, Arizona and California accounted for 52% of all cases by July 15.

See below.

By September the country wide daily new cases per 100,000 was down and only North Dakota seemed to be rising.
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April
Peak		 July 15 Sep. 8
New York 51 4 6
New Jersey 39 4 6
California 3 20 11
Florida 6 56 13
Arizona 4 51 8
Texas 3 37 13
North Dakota x 38
South Dakota x x 27
Iowa x x 24
US 10 20 10

Forecasts:

Source: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning - Youyang Gu, US pandemic modeler, MIT. Aug 8.
He predicts 231,400 (range 203-271K),deaths by Nov 1.

On August 6th The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine forecast 295,011 deaths by December, up from 158,000 in the first 5 months of the Pandemic. That's 137,000 new deaths in the next 4 months.
If 95% of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving their homes -- up from the 55% on Aug 6.--that total number would decrease to 228,271 deaths, a drop of 49%. And more than 66,000 lives would be saved.
"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others - which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."
A "Mandates easing" scenario assumes that mandates will continue to be lifted and will not be re-imposed. The model predicts 387,000 deaths by December in that case.
IHME’s model assumes that states will reimpose a series of mandates, including non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders, when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million.
See New IHME COVID-19 Forecasts See Nearly 300,000 Deaths by December 1 | HealthData.org
Studies in July report 44 - 59% of Americans always wear their masks and 72-80% at least wear their masks frequently.
State and City cases and deaths per capita
  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.

I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.
I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 7 times the incidence of NJ. See Surge below.

See old US State and City data
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
September 8: Highest cases per 100,000 per day

Source: U.S. coronavirus cases and state maps: Tracking cases, deaths - Washington Post
July surge in the South:
The four states below accounted for 52% of all cases by July 15.

     

Coronavirus Rising in Florida, Arizona, California and Texas: What We Know - The New York Times

New Cases per million - Average per Million per day June 22 - 29
State popu-
lation		 New per M Total Cases/M
Arizona 7.3 438 10,577
Florida 21.5 307 6,814
Nevada 3.1 202 5,809
Texas 29.0 201 5,494
California 39.5 143 5,643
Illinois 12.7 71 11,325
New Jersey 8.9 64 19,860
New York 20.1 38 21,453
See * U.S. COVID-19 case rate by state | Statista


As of August 9th I can't find any more current data for Texas.
Get an electric vehicle; Stave an oil baron.

New York

June 15
State Popu-
lation
M		 Cases Cases per
100,000		 Deaths Deaths per
Million
New York 20.1 405,785 2,086 30,998 1,593

70% are in New York City

New Jersey

June 15
State Popu-
lation
M		 Cases Cases per
100,000		 Deaths Deaths per
Million
New Jersey 8.9 170,250 1,917 12,837 1,445

George's Covid-19 NJ Dashboard

California

July 27, 2020

Population Cases Cases
/100K		 New
Cases		 New
/1M		 Deaths Deaths
/1M
California 39,510,000 464,001 1,174 6,891 174 8,501 215 6.1%
United States 331,000,000 4,424,295 1,337 67,212 204 150,275 454

See Case Fatality Rate

Coronavirus: 'Discrepancies' in California data as deaths rise August 5

California Department of Public health: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Resilience Roadmap - Reopening Stages

COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
California | The COVID Tracking Project

California Timeline: Mar 11 Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social distancing of 6 feet per person. Gatherings of individuals who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should be limited to no more than 10 people, while also following social distancing guidelines.

March 19 First state to issue a Stay at home order (Shelter in Place).
All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands.
Essencial Services:

Essential state and local government functions Outdoor exercise is permitted with social distancing.

May 8 the stay home order was modified. In addition to essential activity, retail is allowed, along with the infrastructure to support it. California restaurants and shopping malls can soon reopen in counties that meet state standards for testing and success at reducing cases of the coronavirus,

May 26, 2020, Hair salons and barber shops will be allowed to reopen in 47 of the state's counties after being closed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

On June 12 most California Counties were allowed to move to Stage 3 with some indoor dining with table spacing, hotels, outdoor recreation and other facilities allowed to open.

Most Bay Area counties were still restricted.

Seven of the nine Bay Area counties have reported recent, significant upticks in cases, and the Bay Area as a whole recorded a nearly 40% jump in new cases
Source: Coronavirus cases on the rise across the Bay Area, especially in Alameda County - SFChronicle.com, May 26.

On June 18 as new cases in California continued to increase, the Governor announced masks were mandetory in high-risk settings where 6' separation could not be achieved.

On July 1 Governor Newsom announced 19 counties must close indoor restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms for at least three weeks. If possible, those businesses can operate outdoors. Bars and breweries, indoors and outdoors, have been ordered to close..
Contra Costa, Fresno, Glenn, Imperial, Kern, Kings, L.A., Merced, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Solano, Stanislaus, Tulare., and Ventura.

July 8 The state is monitoring data for elevated disease transmission (case rates and positive test results), increased hospitalizations and limited hospital capacity (availability of ICU beds and ventilators). Any county not meeting threshold criteria in at least one category goes on the watch list.
Marin was on the list and decided to halt indoor dining for at least three weeks in response. Santa Clara was no longer on the list but the previous restrictions remain based on having been on the list for three or more consecutive days.

July 13 Bars, indoor restaurants, movie theaters and many other recently reopened businesses across California are ordered to close.
29 counties on the state watch list must now close gyms, houses of worship, hair and nail salons, offices for noncritical work sectors, shopping malls and barbershops.
In the Bay Area, the more restrictive orders take effect in Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Solano,Santa Clara and Sonoma counties.

August 9

A UC Berkeley poll released on August 5th found 80 percent of Biden voters thought the state moved too quickly to reopen businesses, while 79 percent of Trump supporters thought the opposite -- that the restrictions needed to be lifted because of the damage inflicted on the economy. Overall, 61 percent of residents said the state was too hasty in its initial reopening.
Source: Mercury News

                              County Map

   

See new case trend by county at SF Chronicle

County variance info - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
County Alameda Contra-
Costa		 Marin San
Francisco		 San
Mateo		 Santa
Clara		 Sonoma
Confirmed- Cases 8,627 5,233 4,078 4,860 4,333 7,046 2,027
Deaths 154 93 41 51 114 176 19
cases/100K 518 455 1570 550 563 364 405
Deaths/100K 9.2 8.1 15.8 5.8 14.8 9.1 3.8
Deaths/Case 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 2.6% 2.5% 0.9%
Population 1,666,753 1,150,215 259,666 883,305 769,545 1937570 499,942
Pop./sq mi 1,899 1,345 310 3,575 999 1,412 278
Trend
Stage* L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 3
* Stage: L2 - Limited Stage 2
A2 - Advanced Stage 2
See stages below

See California's reopening: See what's open and what's still shut down by county SF Chronicle May 29

County Napa Sacra-
mento		 Sierra Solano Yuba-
Sutter		 Yolo
Confirmed- Cases 578 6,395 1 2,483 707 1,062
Deaths 4 94 0 31 7 30
cases/100K 415 415 33 555 404 482
Deaths/100K 2.9 6.1 0.0 6.9 4.0 13.6
Deaths/Case 0.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 2.8%
Population 139,417 1,540,975 2,987 446,610 174848 220,408
Trend
Stage* 3 3 3 3 3 3
*A2 - Advanced Stage 2
Source: County variance info - COVID-19 Response ca.gov

The variation of deaths per case is influenced by a number of factors such as inaccurate case counts and vulnerability, age distribution, overall health -- e.g. percent of the population with high blood pressure, etc.
See real case numbers below and Case Fatality Rate (CFR)..

I included population density thinking there would be a correlation with infection rate. It was weak, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Marin were outliers with much higher infection rates than population density would predict. I needed to include other factors like average age to zero in on density.
There was a correlation nationwide.

Counties bordering Lake Tahoe June 17

County Placer El Dorado Washoe
Confirmed- Cases 1,235 394 3,951
Deaths 11 0 101
cases/100K 310 204 838
Deaths/100K 2.8 0.0 21.4
Deaths/Case 0.9% 0.0% 2.6%
Population 398,329 192,843 471,519
Trend
80% of Placer Co. cases are in Roseville, Rocklin, Auburn and Lincoln
48% of El Dorado Co. cases are in the Tahoe Region and 23% in El Dorado Hills
Healthcare centers and Reno and Sparks have accounted for a lot of Washoe Counties Cases.

Tahoe Regions
Location Population Date
7-16
Cases Cases/
100 K
Kings Beach 5,164 24 465
Carnelian Bay 1,170 <6 <513
Tahoe City 5,120 6 117
Tahoma and S. Tahoe 23,073 198 858
Incline Village 8,777 55 627
Crystal Bay 305 <25

Tahoe's year-round resident population is 44,000. Total population can reach 3-400,000 on peak days like the 4th of July.

Stages:
Limited or Early Stage 2:
WHAT IS OPEN
Curbside retail and dining pickups or deliveries * individual counties may approve in-store shopping * some manufacturing * child care for those outside the essential workforce * office-based business though telework is still encouraged * services like car washes, pet grooming and landscaping * outdoor public spaces like museums and galleries * places of worship with attendance limited to 25% of building capacity up to 100 people, pending approval from individual counties.

WHAT IS OPEN, WITH MODIFICATIONS
Indoor gatherings, including retail and eat-in dining in some counties * personal services such as nail salons, tattoo parlors, gyms and fitness studios * many state parks * schools.

Advanced Stage 2:
WHAT EXTRA IS OPEN, WITH COUNTY-SPECIFIC MODIFICATIONS

Dine-in restaurants and other facilities offering food service with social distancing * barbershops and hair salons with safety measures * schools.

See California Reopening Stages corona.ca
and California's reopening: See what's open and what's still shut down by county SF Chronicle June 1

Sacramento County July 16

Sacramento County
COVID-19 Cases by Race-Ethnicity
Ethnicity-
Race		 Cases Population
Non-Hispanic
White *		 34.6% 44.3%
Hispanic 36.6% 26.3%
Asian 11.6% 17.8%
Black 14.4% 10.4%
Native HW or
Other Pac Islndr		 2.4% 1.2%
alaska native &
Amer Indian		 0.5% 1.0%
* Note the Census classifies Ethnicity (Hispanic/Non-Hispanic) separate from Race (White, Black, Asian, ...). 53% of Hispanics classify themselves as white, but they are separated into there own category here. 		Sacramento County
Cases by Age Group
0-17 9%
18-49 61%
50-64 18%
65~ 13%

See COVID-19 Race Ethnicity for California.
and COVID-19 Experience Split Along Race, Income In Sacramento Region - capradio.org

Population Cases Cases
/100K		 New
Cases		 New
/1M		 Deaths Deaths
/1M
Sacramento
County		 1,552,000 6,511 420 167 108 95 61
California 39,510,000 355,285 899 7,927 201 7,361 186
US 331,000,000 3,616,747 1,093 67,162 203 140,140 423

Yolo Co. Aug 6:

The extent of the spread of COVID-19 in Yolo County is not only worse than it would appear from the latest numbers but actually has been worse than reported for a while, county supervisors were told on August 4.

Due to delays in receiving test results, as well as problems with the state's electronic reporting system, cases have been significantly under-reported, according to Brian Vaughn, the county's director of public health.
Davis Enterprise

Davis Cases Confirmed by Date as of Aug 6

Davis Senior Hours

Total cases and Deaths as of July 27. Daily totals as of July24.
Date Population Cases Cases
/100K		 New
Cases		 New
/1M		 Deaths Deaths
/1M
July 24 Davis 70,560 142 201 2.6 37
Yolo County 220,500 1,424 646 20 91 37 168
July 27 California 39,510,000 464,001 1,174 6,891 174 8,501 215
United States 331,000,000 4,424,295 1,337 67,612 204 150,275 454
July 16
Popula-
tion		 Confirmed
Cases		 Hospat-
ilized		 Cases
/100K		 Cases
/100K		New
Cases		 New
/M
Davis 70,560 110 4 156 6 5.6 80
Woodland 59,535 550 43 924 72
Winters 6,615 51 4 771 60
Unincorporated 28,665 101 10 352 35
West Sacramento 55,125 288 36 522 65

Placer County:
Aug 9
Confirmed
Cases		 Cases
/100K		 Population
Placer County 2,282 573 398,329
80% are in Roseville, Rocklin, Auburn and Lincoln including surrounding area.


The BOS did not question this and decided to allow hotels and other lodging plus resturants, ... to reopen on June 12. I assume they were under a lot of pressure from the tourist industry around North Lake Tahoe to re-open.

Can I Reopen? | Placer County, CA
Business Resource Center: brcinfo@placer.ca.gov

Santa Clara County Aug 6

'Discrepancies' in California's case data cast doubt as deaths continue to rise | Mercury News August 5

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara
Coronavirus: 'Discrepancies' in California's case data cast doubt as deaths continue to rise August 5


Aug 9
City Cases Population Cases/
100,000
San Jose 7,901 1,046,079 755
Santa Clara 582 129,488 449
Gilroy 707 58,756 1203
Sunnyvale 550 153,185 359
Morgan Hill 328 45,135 727
Milpitas 301 80,430 374
Mountain View 249 83,377 299
Campbell 212 42,466 499
Palo Alto 175 107,971 162
Los Gatos 57 30,680 186
Cupertino 82 60,170 136

COVID-19 Deaths by Ethnicity and Race Santa Clara Co.
Race
/Ethnicity		 % deaths % population
Asian 23% 38%
Non-Hispanic
White *		 34% 31%
Latino - Hispanic 36% 25%
African American 4% 2.8%
* Note the Census classifies Ethnicity (Hispanic/Non-Hispanic) separate from Race (White, Black, Asian, ...). 53% of Hispanics classify themselves as white, but they are separated into there own category here.

Palo Alto
Note: Data was not available for some zip codes
Zip Popu-
lation		 Cases Cases/
100,000
94301 17,191 45 262
94302 PO Box
94303 45,467 na
94304 3,902 18 461
94305 13,862 na
94306 27,549 42 152
All 107,971? 129 119
When you add up all zip codes you get a population of 107,971, but it is shown in most places as 67,000.
94304 is where Stanford Hospital is.

Tracking the coronavirus | PaloAltoOnline

Santa Clara County California, the heart of Silicon Valley, had the highest rate in the state at the end of March. Many believe the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, with 182,000 attendees, in January 2020, which had many people from Wuhan, may have been the incubator for the virus in Silicon Valley.

Also Asians are the largest race in Santa Clara County with 37% of the population, so there may have been more travel to China. However they had a lower death rate from COVID-19 with 23% of deaths.

What is the real number of infected people?
Everyone agrees the total number is much higher than what is reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people. Results of random testing vary all over the place.

Important References

Terms:
The virus: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, 2019-nCoV)
The disease: Novel coronavirus (Covid-19)
See more at the facts page.

Epidemic - A quick rise in the number of cases of a disease beyond what is normally expected in a geographical area.
Pandemic - A disease that has spread across many countries and affects a large number of people.
Endemic - An infection which is constantly maintained at a baseline level in a geographic area without external inputs. For example, chickenpox is endemic (steady state) in the UK, but malaria is not.

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes

How the rankings changed based on deaths vs confirmed cases.
The confirmed cases are far lower than the actual number of people with the coronavirus, as not everyone exhibits symptoms or seeks medical attention and testing varies by location.

My son pointed out that confirmed deaths are a more reliable metric, existing systems for reporting deaths already exist, while testing for cases is still evolving.

June 15
County Confirmed-
Cases		 Deaths cases/
100K		 Deaths/
100K		 Case
rank		 Death
rank		 Deaths/
Case
SanMateo 1,197 51 162 6.9 2 1 4.3%
SantaClara 2,179 115 118 6.2 3 2 5.3%
Marin 239 13 93 5.1 5 3 5.4%
Alameda 1636 63 105 4.0 4 4 3.9%
SanFrancisco 1,523 29 172 3.3 1 5 1.9%
Yolo 171 7 78 3.2 7 6 4.1%
Sacra-mento 1,117 42 77 2.9 8 7 3.8%
ContraCosta 907 28 84 2.6 6 8 3.1%
Placer 159 8 44 2.2 12 9 5.0%
Yuba-Sutter 50 3 30 1.8 13 10 6.0%
Napa 68 2 49 1.4 11 11 2.9%
Solano 266 5 63 1.2 9 12 1.9%
Sonoma 248 3 50 0.6 10 13 1.2%
Sierra 0* 0 0 0.0 14 14

See Deaths per case is a poor measure of the mortality risk.
and real case numbers below

See also : Coronavirus Trajectories - Research and Statistics - Our World in Data
Coronavirus in the U.S.: How Fast It's Growing - The New York Times

Coronavirus has come to Trump country - The Washington Post
More Information:
Coronavirus has come to Trump country - The Washington Post June 17
Rational for what's included:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus in the places where I shop. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population. I also wanted to know the number of active cases, the total cases since the start of the epidemic less those that have recovered.
I also wanted to know the trends, is it getting better or worse, and where are the hot spots. See What is the real number of infected people?

I've concentrated on areas where I have friends and family and hot spots.

I also wanted to know trends. Is it getting better? i.e. Is the number of new cases per day dropping and the total cases curve flattening out.
This is a sample of the most critical areas (e.g. New York City) and areas where I have friends and family.

I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

Sources:
Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live
* U.S. COVID-19 case rate by state | Statista
United States US - Worldometer Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Our World in Data
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
More Links:
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning, Youyang Gu, US pandemic modeler

Why Is the COVID-19 Death Rate Down? - The Atlantic
The Virus: What Went Wrong? | Watch S2020 E1 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site
COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation | Christopher J.L. Murray, MD, DPHIL April 29
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Our World in Data

How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic March 25
Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide | Serious Eats
How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic, Mar 25
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Severity Spectrum - Age - Incubation period - ... | UpToDate
Chart: Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US are in line with Italy and Iran - Vox
Personal Protection Equipment (PPE)
Scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the Coronavirus.
Coronavirus FAQ's by Dr. Megan Murray (Harvard Infectious Disease specialist) | Abundance Foundation
  Coronavirus Scams: | FTC Consumer Information
  Google search for other coronavirus scam warnings
See old US State and City data