Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Historic Wastewater Testing - Healthy Davis Together
Comparison of the Healthy Davis wastewater testing with CA cepartment of health results from the Omicron outbreak to November 2022.
The purpose is to show than many cases were not reported after the Omicon rates dropped.
Note: The Yolo Co. Dept. of Health stopped reporting data for Davis, so we have a little apples vs oranges situation, but Davis numbers tracked Yolo Co. numbers but were a little lower.

In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.

This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.

Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.

Note: Wastewater results tend to be more variable than reported cases. See the national wastewater results above.

Bay Area Wastewater
Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford

zzz

California, San Francisco Co, Santa Clara, Santa Clara Co, San Mateo, Alameda Co, Alameda, Sierra, Yolo, Yolo Co, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Sutter Co, Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News

More N. Central California data

The Bottom Line - Cumulative Death Rates

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

These stats are not updated as frequently. Death rates are low compared to the first 2 years, so the the curve has flattened out.

See Undercounting - Actual Deaths below.

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
Asia is significantly low because of undercounting in China and India.01..lat

* Deaths are significantly undercounted. See Data Accuracy
Mexico and Russia were significantly undercounted in a May 2021 U. Washington Study below.
If you account for that, Russia would have 8,400 deaths per million, Mexico would have 4,700 deaths per million and India would have 3,600 deaths per million per a July 2021 Wall Street Journal report.
China could be up to 130
Deaths in other countries could be up to 40% higher.

Chart with all countries listed above

Cumulative Case Rate:

Study: Home COVID tests in the US lead to vast undercount of cases, positivity rates | JAMA Network Open Jan 2023
See Data Accuracy

Chart with all countries listed above

Unvaccinated are 14 Times More Likely to Die From COVID | WebMD

US States:

US States Cumulative Death Rates
Total Deaths per million Apr 28, 2023

1 Arizona * 4,588 2 Mississippi 4,517 3 West Virginia 4,488 4 New Mexico * 4,384 5 Arkansas 4,328 6 Alabama 4,310 7 Tennessee 4,294 8 Michigan 4,281 9 Kentucky 4,131 10 Louisiana 4,074 11 New Jersey 4,066 12 Florida 4,057 13 Oklahoma 4,052 14 Georgia 4,023 15 New York 3,985 16 Pennsylvania 3,973 17 Indiana 3,915 18 Nevada 3,890

19 South Carolina 3,843 20 Missouri 3,711 21 South Dakota 3,643 22 Rhode Island 3,633 23 Ohio 3,604 24 Massachusetts 3,569 USA Total 3,504 25 Kansas 3,492 26 Wyoming 3,480 27 Montana 3,469 28 Connecticut 3,451 29 Delaware 3,442 30 Iowa 3,422 31 Illinois 3,304 32 Texas 3,253 33 North Dakota 3,232 34 Idaho 3,064 35 Wisconsin 2,844

36 Virginia 2,779 37 Maryland 2,763 38 North Carolina 2,761 39 Minnesota 2,683 40 Colorado 2,625 41 Nebraska 2,592 42 California 2,591 43 Oregon 2,260 44 Maine 2,251 45 New Hampshire 2,233 46 Washington 2,091 47 District Of Columbia 2,029 48 Alaska 2,007 49 Utah 1,664 50 Vermont 1,489 51 Hawaii 1,331 52 Puerto Rico 1,738

Note: 1,000 deaths per 1 Million is 0.1%

* Arizona and New Mexico have the highest percentage of Native Americans.
Mortality rates for Native Americans were 2.8 times as high as that for the white's according to a December, 2021 Princeton study.
Arizona - Native Americans make up 4.6% of Arizona's population, but 16% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers Arizona's death rate would be 4,040 which would put them at #13.

New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers New Mexico's death rate would be 2,463 which would it at #42.

Source: Worldmeter

Correlation beween Vaccinations and Deaths January, 2023
10 Hign and 10 Low states with % Fully vaccinated with a booster.
Average cumulative death rate for those 2 groups.
The death rate was 50% higher for those states with a low vaccination rate.

States	Top 10 vaccination rates	Bottom 10 vaccination rates
Average Vaccination rate	45.8%	24.5%
Average deaths per million	2,470	3,617

Vaccination Rates from NY Times

California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K

Bay Area median 104 Monterey 171 Santa Clara 119 Alameda 113 Contra Costa 113 Marin 113 Napa 104 Solano 101 Sonoma 99 San Francisco 98 San Mateo 98 Santa Cruz 96

Greater Sac median 149 Sutter 240 Amador 216 Sacramento 203 Butte 192 Placer 158 Yuba 155 Yolo 143 Sierra 133 Nevada 127 El Dorado 109 Plumas 69 Colusa 97 Alpine

N. California median 213 Shasta 357 Tehama 309 Siskiyou 241 Glenn 236 Lassen 226 Lake 213 Del Norte 180 Trinity 163 Mendocino 143 Humboldt 108 Modoc 90

S. California median 221 Imperial 505 San Bernardino 335 Los Angeles 319 Inyo 310 Riverside 264 Orange 221 Ventura 176 San Luis Obispo 168 San Diego 157 Santa Barbara 155 Mono 42

San Joaquin median 284 Tuolumne 332 Tulare 315 Stanislaus 308 Merced 296 Kings 292 San Joaquin 292 Fresno 276 Kern 266 Calaveras 261 Madera 232 Mariposa 198 San Benito 156

Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

End of Executive Overview

World Summary:

Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.

- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )

China
In early December 2022, China suddenly reversed its "zero Covid" policy. That set off a wave of infections that has swept across the nation, overwhelming hospitals and funeral parlors.

They stoped reporting in January, so we don't know the current status.

With China's population of 1.45 billion, 9,300 cases on January 6 is 6 cases per million.
See The WHO China COVID Dashboard which says there were 34,610 new cases (28 per million) on January 6.
I don't know why the number of cases reported on worldmeter and the cases per million on Our World in Data are lower than the WHO numbers.
28 new cases per million is relatively low, which doesn't account for the large number of hospitalizations. The US had 154 new cases per day per million on Jan 6 and Europe had 130.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has criticized China for not being forthcoming with statistics and not following WHO guidelines for counting deaths since the beginning of COVIE-19 .
China's population is 37% rural, which might account for some lower averages, but not that large a difference. I could not find any data for infection rates in urban places like Shanghai, Wuhan and Bejing.
See China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day at Bloomberg December 23rd.

China's current wave appears to be dominated by two main Omicron subvariants already circulating in other parts of the world: BA.5.2 and BF.7 (which is actually short for BA.5.2.1.7). Both BA.5.2 and BF.7 are from the same Omicron lineage, and have been bubbling along in North America, Europe, other parts of Asia and Australia since mid-to-late 2022.
Local reports indicate that BF.7 is the dominant subvariant currently circulating inside China, with a shorter incubation period, faster transmission rate, and stronger resistance to immunity than previous strains the country has seen.
In the US, BF.7 has dropped from 7% of cases in October 2022 to 2.2% in January 2023.
Could China's COVID-19 outbreak lead to the next variant of concern? Experts say it's not time to panic yet | ABC.net.au

All Countries: Total cases per day

Regions:
It defaults to total cases. You have to click on cases and select "new_cases" to see trends.

Enlarge
Source: Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS)
Europe

Place	Popu- lation M	Cases	Deaths	Cases		Deaths
		Total	Total	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M
Europe	748	102,488,473	1,568,273	13.7%	150	2,097
UK	68	15,066,395	151,612	22.2%	183	2,230
Germany	84	7,885,229	116,098	9.4%	76	1,382
France	65	13,569,675	126,721	20.8%	421	1,941
Italy	60	8,356,514	140,548	13.8%	279	2,327
Russia ‡	146	10,747,125	319,911	7.4%	125	2,191
Ireland	5	1,078,181	6,035	21.5%	423	1,202
Israel	9	1,718,989	8,298	18.5%	393	892
S. America	435	42,651,273	1,197,438	9.8%	61	2,753
Brazil	214	22,927,203	620,847	10.7%	32	2,901
Columbia	52	5,475,904	130,731	10.5%	57	2,514
N America*	595	77,705,633	1,273,825	13.1%	148	2,141
United States	334	66,209,535	872,086	19.8%	236	2,611
Mexico	131	4,302,069	301,107	3.3%	22	2,302
Canada	38	2,717,982	31,317	7.1%	97	820
Asia	4,461	89,335,098	1,269,492	2.0%	9	285
China	1,439	104,745	4,636	0.01%	0	3
India †	1,391	36,850,962	485,780	2.6%	12	349
S. Korea	51	687,984	6,281	1.3%	7	123
Taiwan	24	17,692	851	0.1%	0.3	35
Africa	1,341	10,425,479	233,744	0.8%	3	174
South Africa	60	3,552,043	93,117	5.9%	11	1,552
Botswana	2	237,678	2,514	9.8%	47	1,039
Oceania	42	1,803,984	4,921	4.3%	250	117
Australia	26	1,632,958	2,627	6.3%	423	101
New Zealand	5	15,001	52	0.3%	1	10

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
* Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland are considered part of North America.

    Estimated % counted
United States 63% 
Mexico        35%
W. Europe     70-80%
Russia        18%

See estimated actual death counts at U. Washington Study below.
The major countries (population > 10 million) with the highest death rate are.

Peru    6,002  Bulgaria 4,331  Hungary 3,868  
Czechia 3,242  Romania  3,041  Brazil  2,874

‡ If you adjust for the undercounting in Mexico and Russia their rates would be:
Mexico 4,862 deaths per million
Russia 8,358 deaths per million

Regional Death Rates: S. America 2,732; N. America 1,999; Europe 1,968
Asia, Africa and Oceana all have less than 300 deaths per million.
New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all had less than 100 deaths per million.

† A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

Because Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths we dont compute a world rate. There are smaller countries in Asia and Africa who's infection and death rates are similar to other developed countries.

See World Countries Cumulative Cases and Deaths below
See US States Cumulative Deaths below

Data Accuracy

The most complete study to date was released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 5th 2022
A World Health Organization (WHO) study shows that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as excess mortality) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.
They measured the increase in the death toll, which was COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemics impact on health systems and society). e.g. lack of access to ERs and intensive care.

Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemics impact on health systems and society).
Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The production of these estimates is a result of a global collaboration supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and country consultations. with over 30 researchers from around the world.

See more from the WHO.
The pandemics true death toll | economist

Study: Home COVID tests in the US lead to vast undercount of cases, positivity rates | JAMA Network Open Jan 2023
Previous Studies:

Almost 60% of U.S. Has Been Infected by COVID-19, CDC Says;
Researchers looked at the presence of coronavirus antibodies to estimate the rate of infection.
During September 2021February 2022, a convenience sample of blood specimens submitted for clinical testing was analyzed every 4 weeks for anti-N antibodies. the median sample size per 4-week period was 73,869 .
It indicated 57.7% of Americans had been infected.
Official infections reported were 80.5 Million or 24% of the population, i.e. only 42% of infections were reported.
See WebMD
The report was published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, April 29, 2022

Davis, CA Wastewater testing indicates that in June 2022 only 20% of cases were reported compared to January 2022.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.
See

"COVIDs true death toll: much higher than official records" | Nature March 10, 2022 compares data at the end of 2021 from The pandemics true death toll | The Economist Jan 31, 2022 and The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

The pandemics true death toll | The Economist May 2022

	OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
Asia	1,431,831	30.6	6.4m to 15m	140 to 330	+700%
Europe (incl. EU)	1,828,826	244.2	3.1m to 3.3m	410 to 430	+70%
Africa	253,293	18.4	1.1m to 3.3m	79 to 240	+1,000%
Latin America and Caribbean	1,694,146	257.2	2.4m to 2.7m	370 to 410	+50%
European Union	1,083,086	242.2	1.2m to 1.4m	280 to 300	+20%
North America	1,039,020	280.1	1.2m to 1.4m	320 to 370	+20%
Oceania	11,225	26.0	1.9k to 30k	4.5 to 70	50%

By Country: (Examples)

	OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS	PER 100,000		ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
India	524,181	37.6		2.2m to 9.7m	160 to 700	+1,000%
Russia	369,644	253.3		1.2m to 1.3m	820 to 890	+200%
United States	998,997	300.1		1.2m to 1.3m	350 to 400	+20%
Pakistan	30,375	13.5		390k to 1.1m	170 to 500	+2,700%
Indonesia	156,396	56.6		360k to 1.1m	130 to 410	+400%
Brazil	664,750	310.6		770k to 820k	360 to 380	+20%
Mexico	324,465	249.1		670k to 760k	520 to 580	+100%
Bangladesh	29,127	17.5		260k to 760k	160 to 460	+1,800%
China	5,203	0.4		330k to 1.9m	23 to 130	+8,500%
Poland	116,164	307.3		180k to 190k	480 to 500	+60%
Turkey	98,870	116.3		180k to 490k	210 to 580	+300%
Britain	177,088	259.6		140k to 160k	210 to 230	20%
Germany	137,184	163.5		110k to 130k	130 to 160	10%
Italy	164,846	273.1		200k to 230k	320 to 380	+30%
Peru	212,968	638.4		220k to 220k	660 to 670	+4%

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),
reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths. Around the World they are half the actual rate.

Some examples Estimated % counted. See below.
United States 63%
Mexico 35%
W. Europe 70-80%
Russia 18%

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
-Countries with the highest actual (estimated) death rates, March 2020 to May 2021

	Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Deaths per M	Death Rate Rank*	Pop M
3	Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746	19	130
4	Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787	10	214
5	Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066	17	146
6	United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075	12	68
7	Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912	11	60
8	Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051	6	85
9	Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635	4	104
10	South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676	8	60
11	Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963	15	38
12	Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547	18	33
13	Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184	13	44
1	United States	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722	9	333
14	France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029	5	65
15	Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647	7	47
16	Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437	3	84
17	Indonesia	118,796	47,150	40%	438	1	271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates.
	Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910	14	11
	Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970	16	10
	Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600	20	7

* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed in the IHME report.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.

A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

"Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic a study by Researchers at the University of Washingtons Institute of Health Metrics published in the Lancet March 10, 2022 . They found,
"Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5.94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18.2 million (95% uncertainty interval) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120.3 deaths per 100000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4.07 million), the USA (1.13 million ), Russia (1.07 million ), Mexico (798), Brazil (792000), Indonesia 736,000 , and Pakistan 664,000"

At Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis - The Lancet, Published in April 2022,
They looked at global data from the start of the Pandemic to November 2021 with information from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and others, they estimate that over 40% of the global population was infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021.

Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation", April 2022,
"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported."

More World Data

CDC Map

See State Death Rates
See US Epicenters
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021

"Coronavirus Updates"" in the Washington Post Dec 19, 2022 reported that the rates are up nationwide.

A contributing factor was Public sentiment toward vaccines and mask mandates are some of the contributing factors to the death rate.
One study found people living in more conservative areas of the United States were more likely to die from deaths linked to covid-19.

"Covid death rates were 26 percent higher in areas where voters lean conservative."

California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K

Bay Area median 104 Monterey 171 Santa Clara 119 Alameda 113 Contra Costa 113 Marin 113 Napa 104 Solano 101 Sonoma 99 San Francisco 98 San Mateo 98 Santa Cruz 96

Greater Sac median 149 Sutter 240 Amador 216 Sacramento 203 Butte 192 Placer 158 Yuba 155 Yolo 143 Sierra 133 Nevada 127 El Dorado 109 Plumas 69 Colusa 97 Alpine

N. California median 213 Shasta 357 Tehama 309 Siskiyou 241 Glenn 236 Lassen 226 Lake 213 Del Norte 180 Trinity 163 Mendocino 143 Humboldt 108 Modoc 90

S. California median 221 Imperial 505 San Bernardino 335 Los Angeles 319 Inyo 310 Riverside 264 Orange 221 Ventura 176 San Luis Obispo 168 San Diego 157 Santa Barbara 155 Mono 42

San Joaquin median 284 Tuolumne 332 Tulare 315 Stanislaus 308 Merced 296 Kings 292 San Joaquin 292 Fresno 276 Kern 266 Calaveras 261 Madera 232 Mariposa 198 San Benito 156

Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

North Central California Counties

North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.
Cumulative to May 26, 2023

	Cases per 100,000	Deaths per 100,000	Fully Vaccinated
United States	32,366	352	70%
California	31,054	260	81%
Bay Area
Alameda	24,934	131	86.0%
Contra-Costa	26,500	141	86.2%
Marin	18,206	100	89.8%
Napa	26,037	125	79.4%
San Francisco	24,582	140	87.3%
San Mateo	25,813	98	87.7%
Sonoma	24,170	114	85.7%
Santa Clara	26,313	146	87.9%
Solano	28,370	109	71.2%
Greater Sacramento
El Dorado	21,253	132	64.4%
Placer	24,442	180	72.3%
Sacramento	27,583	239	71.8%
Sierra	12,765	171	54.1%
Sutter	29,836	251	62.0%
Yolo	25,936	211	75.4%

Source: Tracking the coronavirus in California ,| LA Times

The 10 counties who voted for Biden in 2020 averaged a total of 1,203 deaths per million over the course of the virus as of March 12, 2022 compared to the 2 counties who voted for Trump which average averaged 1,870 deaths per million (55% higher).

* Sierra County had only 12 new cases from Feb 15, 2021 to July 4, 2021 with a 7 day average of close to 0.
At the beginning of july, the beginning of September and middle of October they had an outbreak raising the 7-day average to 3 cases per day making the rate per 100,000 100 cases per day.
With a population of just over 3,000 a small outbreak results in a high rate (new cases per 100,000)
But their cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is the lowest of all counties represented here.

New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.

World Stats:

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.

Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.

NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC

Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.

% Vaccinated:

Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

Those who are vaccinated are about six times less likely to contract the virus and 14 times less likely to die from it.

COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.

Deaths:

New Cases driven by largest countries.

Spikes in Daily Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn

Cumulative Deaths World

Note: A report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian governments former chief economic advisor, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University said the actual number of deaths in India was likely between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. This is 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported, so would put India at the top of the list of death rates.

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.

World Total Deaths:

* A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths instead of the 460,000 reported, increasing the world total to 8 Million.
See Indias Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions WSJ

Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021

	Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Actual Deaths per M	Death Rate Rank*	Pop M
1	United States of America	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722	9	333
2	India	654,395	221,181	34%	470	2	1391
3	Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746	19	130
4	Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787	10	214
5	Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066	17	146
6	United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075	12	68
7	Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912	11	60
8	Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051	6	85
9	Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635	4	104
10	South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676	8	60
11	Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963	15	38
12	Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547	18	33
13	Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184	13	44
14	France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029	5	65
15	Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647	7	47
16	Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437	3	84
17	Indonesia	118,796	47,150	40%	438	1	271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates.
	Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910	14	11
	Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970	16	10
	Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600	20	7

* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed here.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.

23 Countries of Interest - Infection Rates
We are tracking 56 countries of interest based on size (generally population > 5 M) tourism, economy (G20), relationships with the U.S., and tracked by the The World Health Organization (WHO) out of 230 countries and territories tracked by worldmeter and 218 in Our World in Data and worldvision. The U.N. lists 193 countries plus 3 non members who have nation-hood rights (Vatican City, Taiwan, and Kosovo)
Rates in some smaller countries have a higher rate.

See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

Countries with the highest peak infection rates.
We are tracking 56 countries of interest based on size (generally population > 5 M) tourism, economy (G20), relationships with the U.S., and tracked by the The World Health Organization (WHO) out of 230 countries and territories tracked by worldmeter and 218 in Our World in Data and worldvision. The U.N. lists 193 countries plus 3 non members who have nation-hood rights (Vatican City, Taiwan, and Kosovo)
Rates in some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.

Country	Date	New Cases
North America	Jan 12, 2021	470
Europe	Nov 2, 2020	370
South America	June 3, 2021	334
Asia	May 5, 2021	107
Africa	Jan 11,2021	24
Belgium	Oct 30, 2020	1,536
Ireland	Jan 10, 2021	1,323
Portugal	Jan 28, 2021	1,264
Israel	Sept 14, 2021	1,254
Czechia	10/27/20	1,200
Hungary	03/26/21	960
Botswana	08/07/21	946
United Kingdom	Jan 10, 2021	881
France	Nov 3, 2020	832
Austria	11/14/20	806
Spain	Jan 26, 2021	791
United States	Jan 11, 2021	757
Argentina	june 1, 2021	728
Turkey	Apr 21, 2021	714
Nambia	06/30/21	695
Italy	Nov 13, 2020	578
Italy	Nov 13, 2020	578
Columbia	June 6, 2021	527
Sweden	May 4, 2021	500
Costa Rica	May 18, 2021	483
South Africa	Jan 11, 2021	321
Germany	Dec 22, 2020	306
Peru	04/13/21	297
India	May 6, 2021	282
Canada	Apr 16, 2021	232
Russia	May 13, 2021	193
Mexico	Dec 24, 2020	81

Total:

Note: There are small countries (< 5 Million population) with more cases and deaths per million.
See Worldmeter and click on headings to sort.

Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported.

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers. Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, xgxg020 to May 2021

Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Deaths per M
Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600
Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746
Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547
Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066
Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970
Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963
Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910
Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184
United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075
Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912
Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787
United States of America	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722
South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676
Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647
Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051
France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029
Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635
Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437
India	654,395	221,181	34%	470

See more about excessive deaths above.

Omicron Spread

Source: What omicron's fast spread could mean | NPR Dec 10

Source: Worldmeter

Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.

Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand

See More International Stats

United States:

See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker

COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death

See 1918 Flu

"

US States Cumulative Death Rates
Total Deaths per million Apr 25, 2023

1 Arizona * 4,588 2 Mississippi 4,517 3 West Virginia 4,488 4 New Mexico * 4,384 5 Arkansas 4,328 6 Alabama 4,310 7 Tennessee 4,294 8 Michigan 4,281 9 Kentucky 4,131 10 Louisiana 4,074 11 New Jersey 4,066 12 Florida 4,057 13 Oklahoma 4,052 14 Georgia 4,023 15 New York 3,985 16 Pennsylvania 3,973 17 Indiana 3,915 18 Nevada 3,890

19 South Carolina 3,843 20 Missouri 3,711 21 South Dakota 3,643 22 Rhode Island 3,633 23 Ohio 3,604 24 Massachusetts 3,569 USA Total 3,504 25 Kansas 3,492 26 Wyoming 3,480 27 Montana 3,469 28 Connecticut 3,451 29 Delaware 3,442 30 Iowa 3,422 31 Illinois 3,304 32 Texas 3,253 33 North Dakota 3,232 34 Idaho 3,064 35 Wisconsin 2,844

36 Virginia 2,779 37 Maryland 2,763 38 North Carolina 2,761 39 Minnesota 2,683 40 Colorado 2,625 41 Nebraska 2,592 42 California 2,591 43 Oregon 2,260 44 Maine 2,251 45 New Hampshire 2,233 46 Washington 2,091 47 District Of Columbia 2,029 48 Alaska 2,007 49 Utah 1,664 50 Vermont 1,489 51 Hawaii 1,331 52 Puerto Rico 1,738

* Arizona and New Mexico have the highest percentage of Native Americans.
Mortality rates for Native Americans were 2.8 times as high as that for the white's according to a December, 2021 Princeton study.
Arizona - Native Americans make up 4.6% of Arizona's population, but 16% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers Arizona's death rate would be 4,040 which would put them at #13.

New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers New Mexico's death rate would be 2,463 which would it at #42. Note: 1,000 deaths per 1 Million is 0.1%
Source: Worldmeter

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.
In July 2020 because of their new case rates and population, Florida, Texas and California accounted for 19% of all new cases in the world and more than a third of the new cases in the U.S. with a total of 27,574 new cases per day recorded.
Case rates in those states droped by 2/3 in September.
in January 2021 the U.S. accounted for 34% of all new cases in the world.
In April 2021 the world hit a record of 823,439 new cases, 41% from India.
See World leaders.

States with rates 50% higher than the national average are in bold.
In January there were only a couple of outliers so we bolded the top 10.

State	Daily New Cases per 100,000
	Spring 2020 Peak	Jul 15	Sep 8	Oct 8	Nov 2	Dec 2	Jan 4 2021	Feb 3	Mar 3	Apr 7	Jun 6	Jul 17	Aug 14	Sep 9	Oct 5	Nov 12	Dec 20	Jan 14 2022	Feb 12	Apr 8
US	10	20	10	15	24	50	66	45	19	19	4	9	39	44	30	23	47	243	71	9
New York	51	4	6	7	10	37	71	53	32	34	3	3	21	27	29	35	80	324	41	21
New Jersey	39	4	6	8	18	46	49	51	34	47	3	4	19	22	20	15	74	289	34	18
Michigan	16	6		11	35	72	27	17	14	70	4	2	14	23	40	37	63	183	53	7
Pennsylvania	13				18	53	56	42	20	33	4	2	16	28	37	37	57	219	44	6
California	3	20	11	8	10	37	96	42	11	7	2	6	31	16	10	16	19	300	88	8
Florida	6	56	13	12	20	39	62	46	25	24	9	30	101	66	19	7	40	286	88	8
Arizona	4	51	8	9	19	62	112	64	16	9	5	12	38	38	38	47	40	232	97	10
Texas	3	37	13	13	20	38	63	70	25	10	4	9	50	62	27	10	23	214	76	9
Idaho		37	16	28	45	70	50							55	84	28	18	101	138	3
North Dakota		13	38	60	139	89	26	24						55	81	64	41	217	121	5
South Dakota			27	55	134	100	48	43							42	36	39	222
Wisconsin		14	15	43	80	70	44								53	52	69	274
Iowa			24	29	66	64	43								45	41	48	158
Utah		20	13	33	55	86	85	43			7	16	31		44	40	0	304
Montana			12	42	77	79	36								84	46	0		126
Nebraska			14	29	60	93	50			25						44	0	207
Wyoming				25	61	93	38				9	14	45	80		43	0	163
Minnesota			12	20	46	115	34			34					49	64	56
Rhode Island				15	42	114	96	51	35	28						23	120	486		25
New Mexico				14	38	88	59									50	52
Indiana				18	44	87	71										64
Nevada				16	27	75	68					23	35				0
Ohio						67	64								47	37	79	230
Tennessee						72	93	40	19				56	74			0		94
Kansas							85	36				14	41				54	271
Oklahoma							84	52				15	54	59			0
Arkansas							86	51	28	5		34	74	56			0	297
Georgia							80	51	28	12			54	73			0
South Carolina							75	67	21				61	92	41		0	291	112
North Carolina							68	52	23	15			49	36			0	255
Colorado										25	10	6				54	0	260		26
Washington	7										8	9					0		110	12
Missouri												31	45
Louisiana												26	126	50			0	271
mississippi												12	110	65			0	231	156
Alabama												14	81	77			0
Alaska														83	121	59	0	258	170	28
W. Virginia														85	75	43	0		135
Kentucky														89	57	21	0		154	12
Vermont																58	82	286		27
New hampshire																42	90		74	11
Illinois																	80	233		12
Maine																	70		150	15
Massachusetts																	80	303		20
Delaware																		342		9
West Virginia
Connecticut																				14

Source: Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021

California

:

California Regions ranked by new cases per 100,000 May 24, 2023

See the See Timeline for a history of infection rates and the tier system October 2020 - June 2021 (Alpha surge).

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Cumulative Deaths:

Bay Area Region vs Other Regions

A LA Times report said that in January 2022 the death rate in southern California was 3 times higher than the Bay Area.

The Bay Area in California has traditionally had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind the Northern California region and was usually lower than the State rate. As of May 2022 the Bay Area cumulative death rate over the life of COVID was about half the other regions. See above.
In May 2022 the Bay Area had the highest rate.

I had a theory that the regions which had higher rates in the past have developed a herd immunity. However, that has not held up in the last half of 2022 where the Bay Area and Southern California have been trading off for the highest rate.
My new theory is that areas with the highest inter-state and international visitors are affected first. That was the case in the North East states also.

The CDC sampled blood for antibodies from September 2021 to February 2022 and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected, which is much higher than the 24% of cases reported, so we would be approaching heard immunity numbers. However the frequent mutations in the omicron variant messes up the heard immunity theory.

North Central Califronia Counties Map

See county data below.

CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.

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Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov

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Holiday surge: 2020

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.

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California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
ASC Building Products   News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project

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North Central California Counties

Average new cases per day per 100,000 .

	2021	2022					2023
	06/05	1/7	4/2	5/27	11/11	12/10	1/13	2/1	3/3	4/26	5/18
United States	4.2	195	7	33	12	20	18	13	10	3.8	3.3
California	2.3	166	6	39	10	29	16	9	9	3.1	*
Bay Area
Alameda			9	50	10	28	15	7	12	3.5	3.9
Contra-Costa				50	9	28	16	7	15	3.8	3.3
Marin				60	2	19	11	8	9	3.1	0.0
Napa	1.4	149	6	37	2	19	14	10	9	3.7	2.7
San Francisco		167	14	59	16	27	14	8	12	3.5	3.4
San Mateo	1.3	174	11	61	14	28	14	7	9	3.7	3.2
Sanoma		182	8	46	6	17	13	6	8	3.4	2.8
Santa Clara	1.3	163	11	59	10	33	16	10	10	3.7	3.5
Solano	1.3	120	6	50	5	23	16	9	10	4.0	2.0
Greater Sacramento
El Dorado				30	10	19	10	5	5	3.0	2.1
Placer	1.3	91	4	34	8	19	11	7	8	3.5	3.3
Sacramento	0.3	117	7	38	10	21	11	9	10	3.9	3.7
Sierra			0	14	13	0	5	0	0	0.0	0.0
Sutter		99	8	29	6	16	16	5	6	4.3	3.9
Yolo	1.8	159	11	43	13	16	9	7	8	3.7	1.9
Davis		212†	4

* California stoped reporting new cases in May
Source: LA Times
See more detail at corona-detail

-->

Bay Area & Sac Area (partial) County Case Rates:

County stats

Both numbers are probably low because of many cases not being reported.
See Davis Wastewater Testing below.

Cumulative to May 26, 2023

	Cases per 100,000	Deaths per 100,000	Fully Vaccinated
United States	32,366	352	70%
California	31,054	260	81%
Bay Area
Alameda	24,934	131	86.0%
Contra-Costa	26,500	141	86.2%
Marin	18,206	100	89.8%
Napa	26,037	125	79.4%
San Francisco	24,582	140	87.3%
San Mateo	25,813	98	87.7%
Sonoma	24,170	114	85.7%
Santa Clara	26,313	146	87.9%
Solano	28,370	109	71.2%
Greater Sacramento
El Dorado	21,253	132	64.4%
Placer	24,442	180	72.3%
Sacramento	27,583	239	71.8%
Sierra	12,765	171	54.1%
Sutter	29,836	251	62.0%
Yolo	25,936	211	75.4%

Source: Tracking the coronavirus in California ,| LA Times

Data from the previous week is Updated Thursdays
Note: When you click on the chart it will go to the California dashboard and fill in the county, but you have to scroll down and click on "Get County Data"" to get the updated chart.
As of May 11, 2023, the COVID-19 California Dashboard is no longer reporting aggregate cases; CDPH will continue to report sustainable and meaningful data that allow for timely monitoring of COVID-19

Hospitalzations are now used by the CDC instead of caes.
Some Counties I watch:
Hospitalization Rate per 100,000 Sept 9

Entity	current	low	high	Current % of high
U.S.	0.81	0.27	6.02	12%
Calif	0.99	0.38	5.16	19%
Yolo	1.22	0.13	1.40	87%
San Mateo	1.06	0.23	3.11	30%
Placer *	3.32	1.31	9.1	35%
Sacramento	1.26	0.57	6.26	16%
Solano	1.09	0.75	8.87	10%
Napa	1.39	0.38	5.20	27%
Positivity
Sutter	29.0%	3.7%	31.0%	94%

* Placer must be counting all hospitalizations not just COVID.
Total cases now is probably a higher percent of the peak than hospitalizations because more people have immunity from vaccines or esposure, so fewer of infected people are going to the hospital.
Sutter doesn't report hospitalizations

New cases are no longer reported. Positivity rates are shown here.

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Yolo County

Sources: [7-day average case count]

• COVID-19 | Yolo County (833) 744-4472 *
• Yolo County Covid Dashboards - Embed State Website | California Department of Public Health (CDPH) CA.gov [7]
• Yolo County coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak - Los Angeles Times [44*]
• California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times [21]

* LA Times may report total for 7-days not the per-day-average.

Yolo Co. Covid-data-tracker| CDC

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Davis:

Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Healthy Davis Together Historic Wastewater Testing

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San Mateo County

San Mateo Cities cases per day and cumulative per 100,000 Jan 23, 2023
This data was discontinued if February 2023.

Area	Total cases per 100K	Last 14 days per 100K
US	31,030	14
California	30,260	10
San Mateo Co.	24,910	9
Colma	73,040	27
Broadmoor	27,810	21
Ladera	15,310	14
San Bruno	24,840	11
Millbrae	19,210	11
South San Francisco	27,410	11
Woodside	17,670	10
Burlingame	20,090	10
Portola Valley	13,980	9
Daly City	26,660	9
North Fair Oaks	34,690	9
Pacifica	19,340	9
Redwood City	24,670	9
Atherton	17,440	8
Belmont	19,000	8
Brisbane	21,610	8
San Carlos	19,250	8
Emerald Hills	17,520	8
Hillsborough	15,870	7
Menlo Park	22,210	7
San Mateo	22,260	7
East Palo Alto	40,830	6
Half Moon Bay	18,570	6
Foster City	15,970	5
Midcoast Region	15,180	4
West Menlo Park	15,910	1
La Honda	8,960	n/a
Loma Mar	8,720	n/a
Pescadero	21,000	n/a
Princeton	3,400	n/a

* Midcoast Region - The area between Pacifica and Half Moon Bay including, Montara (2,909), Moss Beach & Seal Cove (3,236), Princeteon-by-the Sea (297), El Granada (5,483), and Miramar.

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Bay Area Wastewater
Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford

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Links to County Dashboards.

California, 
Sacramento
Yolo,
San Mateo


Solano County Public Health Dashboards, 
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, 
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, 
Sacramento, 
Placer, 
Sarasota County, Florida  | USAFacts, 

Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:

Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News

Other

Old News

Nov 11 2022- 
New cases in Japan have increased 66% and South Korea have increases 37% over the last 2 weeks.
Oct 29 - New variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BA.4.6 now account for 37% of new cases in the U.S. BA.5 is still the most prominent variant.

See US Variants below

The U.S. COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) declaration will end on May 11.
Oct 21 - A new variant, XBB, a descendant of two different BA.2 variants is emerging.

XBB, in addition to competitor BQ.1.1, escape antibody immunity.

XBB has been reported by 26 countries.


Last week, Singapore's health ministry said its rise in cases over the past month is mainly due to the Omicron XBB subvariant.

As of Oct 25th Singapores new cases were down 10% over the previous 2 weeks.

See:  Global COVID-19 cases down, but rising in Western Pacific | CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy)

The european surge of BA.2.75 seems to have peaked.
Oct 1 - Europe is experience a new surge with a 33% increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks.
This time the ongoing COVID-19 wave is being propelled by sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, notably BA.2.75 and BA.5, with each dominant sub-lineage of Omicron showing clear transmission advantages over the previously circulating viruses.
Sept 1 - The CDC and FDA authorize new Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 specific variants of COVID-19 booster vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer.
August 11 - The CDC loosens COVID guidance, because the majority of people have some imminity and are unlikely to become severely ill.

Eliminates

6 foot guidance.

Quarantine rule for unvaccinated


                                                        (Click on chart to update)
 August 5 - Despite all the news about a BA.5 surge most regions are now seing  decreases in the new case rate. In the last 2 weeks the US new case rate dropped 20%  and Europe dropped 30%. However case rates in the US are still 3 times what they were on Apr 1 and Europe is double what it was on June 1, still well below peaks in January.

All world regions except Asia were down. In the US the Northeast, West and South were down, the Midwest was up slightly; California was down 24%; and all  all California regions are down.

US Wastewater Surveillance sites are also generally showing a decline.
July 5 - The BA.5 strain, the most contagious one so far, now accounts for more than 50%  and BA.4 over 20% of cases in the U.S. according to the CDC. New case counts have not increased much but there is a rise in hospitalizations and test positivity rate. See U.S. data

"BA.5 is able to evade previous immunity, said Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Childrens Hospital. So, breakthrough infections with people who had previous infections are common.

Note: only a fraction of new cases are being reported. See below.

David Montefiori, a professor at the Human Vaccine Institute at Duke University Medical Center, said " BA.4 and BA.5 havent been found to cause more severe disease.

Rather, rises  in hospitalizations observed in some places more likely have to do with fading vaccine protection."


 How to protect yourself from COVID subvariant BA.5 | UC Davis.

and Covid: Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 escape antibodies from vaccination and prior infection, studies suggest - CNN



 
June, 2022 - 

The CDC sampled blood for antibodies  from September 2021 to February 2022  and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected.  Official counts showed only 24% infected, so only 43% were actually reported.


June 10 - U.S. drops Covid testing requirement for international travelers.
May 12 - The CDC's official death count from COVID hits 1 million. Other reports said it hit a million several weeks ago. The actual total is much highr.

I compared the wastewater results for Davis, CA, with reported cases in January and August. It indicated about the same thing.


May 5, 2022 - New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as excess mortality) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.

See  Data Accuracy below.
May 2 - The BA.2.12.1 Omicron Variant is spreading. It already makes up nearly 60% of cases in the Northeast US , according to estimates by the CDC. BA.2.12.1 may be 20% to 30% more infectious than BA.2.
May 5, 2022 - 
The Bay Area in California which has had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind Northern California and in the Fall of 2022 it had the highest rate. See Bay Area vs other CA regions. 

My theory is that as of August 2022 the Bay area has had the lowest death rate, less than half the other regions, so the population does not have a built up immunity from prior infections.

Apr 18, 2022 - Although cases continue to rise in the northeast and some other places, Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner and Dr Anthony Fauci do not think is the start of a major outbreak.

A court case in Florida says the CDC cannot issue mask mandates for transportation.

TSA says they will not enforce the mask mandate.

Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner,  said on "Face the Nation",

"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported. 
 Apr 9 - The majority of US cases are the BA.2 variant. The only significant change in cases is a 60% increase in the Northeast over the last 3 weeks.

Mask mandate for plains extended until May 3.

 Mar 3 - The world death count hit 6 million

 Feb 24, 2022 - The BA.2 variant of Omicron is about 30% more transmissible than the original Omicron variant, BA.1, and it is now causing about 1 in 5 Covid-19 cases worldwide.

It  has a low hospitalization rate like BA.1.

WHO said "They are monitoring countries that have detected BA.2, but so far the subvariant hasnt caused a fresh surge in cases.""
Globally, Covid cases have plunged 21% over the past week.
 Dec 20, 2021 - The Omicron variant accounts for 3/4 of all new cases in the US and is in 40 states.


2021

Nov 26, 2021 - South Africa announced a new COVID variant, Omicron

It infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants.


As of December 4th The Omicron variant had been detected in at least 38 countries but no deaths have yet been reported. 

Nov 1, 2021 - Coronavirus death toll hits 5 million worldwide
Sept 8, 2021, 2021 - New cases among children and teenagers have reached the highest weekly level since the pandemic's start, at more than 250,000 for the week ending Sept. 2  more than a fourth of all new cases that week in the U.S. 
July 27 - CDC Advises Masking Indoors even for vaccinated people In Counties With Substantial Or High Coronavirus Spread.

2/3 of counties in the country have substantial or high rates.

 See New mask guidance

July 20, 2021 - Indias Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions | WSJ

India has officially recorded more than 414,000 coronavirus deaths, but scientists and researchers have said that number undercounts the real toll.

They estimate the actual number of deaths is between 3.4 and 4.7 million.


July 11, 2021 - US Infection rates are over 50% higher than June lows although still only 10% of what they were in January.

In part it is blamed on the July 4th weekend, but also on vaccine resistance in parts of the country.  Nationally, 55.6% of all Americans have received at least one COVID-19 shot. The five states with the biggest two-week jump in cases per capita all had lower vaccination rates: Missouri, 45.9%; Arkansas, 43%; Nevada, 50.9%; Louisiana, 39.2%; and Utah, 49.5%.
July 7, 2021 - Coronavirus death toll hits 4 million worldwide as the Delta variant spreads.



North America and Europe are still well off their highs of 450 and 350 cases per million per day.

Africa's cases cases are concentrated in 6 countries, Tunisia, Nambia, South Africa, Botswana, Libia and Zambia, where the combined case rate is 350 per day per million.
June 14 - The CDC declared the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given when there is increased evidence of factors such as transmissibility or severity or reduced effectiveness of vaccines or treatments. See the Delta variant in facts.

June 14 - The CDC declared the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given when there is increased evidence of factors such as transmissibility or severity or reduced effectiveness of vaccines or treatments. See the Delta variant in facts.
 June 3 - The W.H.O. warned of a surge of new infections in Africa, which could set off a third wave for the continent as winter arrives.
June 1 A new surge in Latin America has been attributed to the spread of the Brazil variant.
May 31 - 42% of the US population  are fully vaccinated.

52% of the California population  are fully vacinated. 

8% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. 

Fully vaccinated in Europe: UK 37%; Spain 19%; Italy 19%; Germany 17%; France 16%; Russia 8%

According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Only 3% of the regional population in Latin America are fully vacinated. as of May 19.

Vaccination rate by country | Americas Society-Council of the Americas June 1

 Chile 44%; Brazil 11%; Argentina 6%; Columbia 6%;
May 9 - New cases in india levels off and the world's new cases is declining.
April 21- India  India had 265,000 new cases per day  driving the world total over 800,000 new cases. The previous country high was the US which had 251,000 new cases per day on January 8th.

April 16 - The COVID death toll freached 3 million deaths worldwide.

                1918 Flu - 17-50 million deaths 

March 15 - Surge in Michigan, Minneasota and the North East US
March 10 - Cases are increasing in Europe and Latin America.
March 11 - The WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic
January 2020 - The WHO declares the  coronavirus outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern.

Risk-Assessment 
 
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed  a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October, 2020.
. 
S>

You specify the group size 
and an  ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported and get a risk probability.

See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool



Objective:

 I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me.  1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.

  I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that  I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population. 

I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because case rates were unreliable from the lack of testing.

In "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States" | Nature Communications Sept 2020, They estimate the actual number of infections from February to  April, 2020 was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.

See U. Washington study.

I  eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.


We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California.  Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..

Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.

See more at rational.

  
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed  a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.

See Risk Assessment




We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California.  Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..

Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.

See more at rational.

Rational:


I started counting cases, but 
at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.

Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.

There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.

See Deaths vs Cases.

After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.

 Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.

Sources:


 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC - Updated frequently

World Health Organization (WHO)

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic | WHO






  Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
- Updated frequently


Coronavirus FAQ's by Dr. Megan Murray (Harvard Infectious Disease specialist) | Abundance Foundation - Mar 9, 2020

Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health - - Updated frequently





Science Friday:


Seasrch for CORONA - Science Friday
Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment


The numbers -  Statistics - Charts



The big picture - 



Coronavirus Dashboard | nCoV2019.live



United States Coronavirus:  - Worldometer
Charts

 Coronavirus Update (Live) - Worldometer

 Our World in Data

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker | Act Now 
COVID-19 statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth
    How is the Economy Doing? | USA Facts




Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries reopen | Financial Times

Coronavirus chart: has your country's epidemic peaked? | Financial Times




 The COVID Tracking Project | The COVID Tracking Project

 COVID-19 Projections


Some twitter feeds I found useful:

Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes

(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine

 Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps

 @DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov



Other Links:

Terms - Glossary

Case Fatality Rate