Don's Home Health | Wars, Famine, Pandemics, Natural disasters, .. | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) |
Other Pages: Corona Infection Timeline Exposure - Symptoms - Testing - Isolation | Corona Facts | Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Terms Glossary | Vaccines | Vaccination | Forcasting | Variants |
I was updating this site following COVID rates worldwide since 2020, but stopped when the pandemic was declared over in 2023.
The The US ended the national emergency for Covid-19 in April 2023 and the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the global Public Health Emergency (PHE) for COVID-19 in May.I started updating some national and California data again in the summer of 2024 when the summer surge was earlier and higher than in 2023.
Contents:
Current trends for the things I update regularly.
National, California
N California: Davis, Sacramento, Woodland, Winters, Palo Alto, Napa, Santa Rosa
Old Data: Executive Summary | Timeline| Historical Data | News | World | US Historical | California Historical
United States:
Aug 23
The summer Covid-19 surge is continuing. In California, the recent COVID-19 wave posted some of the highest summer cases since 2022, according to the California Department of Public Health.
New Vaccines:
The Food and Drug Administration approved updated Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and one from Moderna on August 22, paving the way for the shots to soon land in pharmacies, doctors’ offices and health centers.
Representatives from the drug companies said that their shots were ready to ship immediately after approval. One from Novavax will come later.
They were available from CVS on August 28.
Both vaccines target KP.2, a strain of the coronavirus that started to spread widely this spring. The variants that are most prevalent in the United States right now are very similar to KP.2, but differ substantially from last winter’s variants.and so the vaccines should protect against them.
Dr. Carlos del Rio, a distinguished professor of medicine at Emory University and expert on infectious disease said,
If you had it in the last three months, I would wait. There's no need to get a vaccine, because in a way you’ve been 'vaccinated' by the by the current strain.
You might consider waiting until September or October if you want maximal protection through the anticipated winter COVID-19 wave, as well as over the holidays.
On the other hand, if you haven’t recently had Covid, and especially if you’re 65 or older, or have underlying health conditions, I would get it as soon as possible,"
The exact side effects of a COVID-19 vaccine or booster will vary from person to person.
In general, the CDC says people may experience:
June 20
A summertime wave of COVID-19 infections is arriving earlier than last year across a growing share of the country according to the CDC.
Some Causes:
The CDC web page is Updated Mondays and Fridays by 8PM ET
Click on images below to get the current data.
As of August 16, 2024, we estimate that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 27 states, declining or likely declining in 4 states, and are stable or uncertain in 17 states.
The rate is estimated using data on emergency department visits. Prior to May 10, 2024, the rate was estimated using data on hospital admissions. Preliminary internal comparisons showed that data on emergency department visits and hospital admissions produced similar Rt estimates.
Rt is a data-driven measure of disease transmission. Rt is an estimate on date t of the average number of new infections caused by each infectious person.
Testing for viruses in wastewater has become a standard for measuring the level of infections. We see fewer hospitalizations and deaths as the the effects of the virus have become less severe because of vaccinations, built up immunity, and other factors.
Wastewater testing results are more correlated with infection rates than other measures.
See SCAN
In California, the recent COVID-19 wave posted some of the highest summer cases since 2022, according to the California Department of Public Health.
summer | winter | summer | winter | summer | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 2022-23 | 2023 | 2023-24 | 2024 | |
US | 7/1-9/1 | 12/15 – 1/15 | 8/15 - 10/1 | 12/1 – 2/1 | 7/1- |
Calfiornia | 8/15 – 9/15 | 12/15 – 1/20 | 6/15 - | ||
Davis, CA | 5/15 -8/1 | 11/15 – 1/15 | 8/10 – 10/20 | 12/10 - 2-1 | 6/10 - |
Davis, Sacramento, Woodland, Winters, Palo Alto, Napa, Santa Rosa
See Healthy Central Valley together for Woodland, Winters, Esparto, ...
But they are all lumped together and hard to read.
The charts below with the SARS-CoV-2 title are from The Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN), a new national wastewater monitoring system that monitors 10 different pathogens in municipal wastewater systems in major cities; Including SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, RSV, Norovirus, Hepatitis A and others.
See SCAN
Davis
Sacramento
Woodland
Winters
Half Moon Bay seems to have stopped reporting in July.
As of July 27, June 26 seems to be the last update.
National Wastewater Sewer Alert Network (SCAN) Levels For SARS-CoV-2 June 22, 2024
Executive Summary
Variants | Dates | Peak daily infection rate per 100,000/ Daily Deaths per 1M |
|||
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N. America | Europe | S. America | USA | ||
Alpha | March 2020 - July 2021 | 47/8 | 39/7 | 33/11 | 76/11 |
Delta | July 2021 - Nov. 2021 | 33/5 | 50/5 | 18/5 | 50/6 |
Omicron * | December 2021 - | 150/5 | 207/4 | 89/4 | 241/8 |
Cumulative thru Feb 14, 2023 | |||||
% Infected | 20.3% | 33.2% | 15.5% | 30.4% | |
Deaths per Million | 2,629 | 2,722 | 3,086 | 3,298 | |
Average daily rates February , 2023 | |||||
Daily New Cases per 100,000 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 10.1 | |
Daily Deaths per Million | 1.08 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 1.68 |
Cases per 100,000 | Deaths per 100,000 | Fully Vaccinated |
|
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United States | 32,366 | 352 | 70% |
California | 31,054 | 260 | 81% |
Bay Area | |||
Alameda | 24,934 | 131 | 86.0% |
Contra-Costa | 26,500 | 141 | 86.2% |
Marin | 18,206 | 100 | 89.8% |
Napa | 26,037 | 125 | 79.4% |
San Francisco | 24,582 | 140 | 87.3% |
San Mateo | 25,813 | 98 | 87.7% |
Sonoma | 24,170 | 114 | 85.7% |
Santa Clara | 26,313 | 146 | 87.9% |
Solano | 28,370 | 109 | 71.2% |
Greater Sacramento | |||
El Dorado | 21,253 | 132 | 64.4% |
Placer | 24,442 | 180 | 72.3% |
Sacramento | 27,583 | 239 | 71.8% |
Sierra | 12,765 | 171 | 54.1% |
Sutter | 29,836 | 251 | 62.0% |
Yolo | 25,936 | 211 | 75.4% |
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New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers New Mexico's death rate would be 2,463 which would it at #42.
The tri-state area, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, death rates were initially the highest.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut were the first states to be hit hard in the Spring of 2020 with case rates 3-5 times higher than the national average. Hospitals were still learning how to treat it.
And they had increased exposure because of international travel to New York City and New York City commuters in New Jersey and Connecticut.
Deaths as a function of % of a state voting for Trump in 2020
There is a stronger correlation here than with vaccination rate
Probably because most Trump voters have 2 bad habits: 1. Not wearing masks in addition to 2. Not getting vaccinated.
The median for Biden voters is 1320 deaths per million; for Trump voters is 1890 deaths per million.
i.e. a 43% higher death rate for Trump voters.
With 332 million people in the US about half following Trump guidelines for COVID safety that is 94 million unnecessary deaths.
This is a simple analysis. Other variables should be considered. e.g. Many more Trump voters live in rural areas with lower healthcare availability.
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021>
Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )
Cumulative Case Rate:
Cumulative Death Rate: Dec 2023
Asia is low because of significant undercounting in China and India.
See also Surges
The WHO Western Pacific Region
Oceania, notably New Zealand and Australia plus smaller island countries had the highest case rates in 2022, but they had the lowest case rates in 2020 and 2021. Other countries in the WHO's Western Pacific Region, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan had a similar pattern.
But they had the lowest cumulative death rates over the life of the pandemic, < 800 per million, compared to the US, Europe and South America which were mostly > 2,000.
See Omicron spread below.
These are charts I update more frequently, weekly or monthly or are more significant. You can click on most charts at this site to go to the current version at the source. Sometimes you may have to scroll down to find a specific chart.
So it is much lower than the 1918 flu where there were somewhere between 17 and 50 million deaths (0.9% - 2.8% of the population).
The bottom Line - Deaths:
As of December 2023 the official reported world death count from COVID-19 is 7 million.
As of January 2023, taking into account likely COVID induced deaths via excess deaths (all deaths before COVID-19 vs deaths during COVID-19) suggests the pandemic has caused between 16 and 28.2 million deaths (0.2% - 0.4% of the world population).
So it is much lower than the 1918 flu which lasted from 1918 to 1920 where there were somewhere between 17 and 50 million deaths (0.9% - 2.8% of the population).
See Data Accuracy
Note:
As of April 2023 many sources are only updating every several weeks.
As of August 7, 2023 the Americas Region stopped reporting COVID-19 stats to the WHO
We are tracking 56 countries of interest based on size (generally population > 5 M) tourism, economy (G20), relationships with the U.S., and tracked by the The World Health Organization (WHO) out of 230 countries and territories tracked by worldmeter and 218 in Our World in Data and worldvision. The U.N. lists 193 countries plus 3 non members who have nation-hood rights (Vatican City, Taiwan, and Kosovo)
There are many smaller countries with higher rates.
Overview by phases (Variants)
Trends (new cases per day)
The bottom line (cumulative deaths per capita)
We are seeing summer surge for the 3rd year, but of the 56 countries we are monitoring only South Korea, New Zealand Australia had more than 30 new cases per million at the end of July. (At the peak of the outbreak at the beginning of 2022, there were a dozen countries with an average of more than 1,000 new cases per million per day)
This can be attributed to:
United States and Northern California Current Trends
The hospitalizations on Jan 1, 2024 were 80% of those a year earlier.
Note: The actual infection rate is probably closer to the Omicron hight. Fewer people are getting hospitalized because of mild symptoms due to vaccinations and immunity from exposure.
US County hospitalization rates:
This chart is no longer being updated.
California
The January 1st rate was 72% of the high of 22.3 on Jan 6 2022.
Some Counties I watch:
World:
Most places have stopped reporting new cases. The CDC has transitioned to hospitalizations as the primary measure, but the WHO still reports new cases .
The WHO dashboard shows a 50% increase global new cases in the month ended August 14 compared to the previous month, but it was 1.5% of the global highs.
New variant:
Aug 23 - A new variant, BA.2.86 (Pirola), with 36 mutations of the BA2 strain has been detected in Virginia, Michigan and Ohio, the UK, Israel, Denmark and South Africa.
BA.2.86's mutations include changes at key parts of the virus that could help the variant dodge the body's immune defenses from prior infections or vaccinations.
As of January 2024 I couldn't find any data from the WHO that included cases, hospitalizations or deaths for the US, Europe and South america.
Asia is significantly low because of significant undercounting in China and India.
When you look at excess death rates comparing pre-covid deaths to post covid death the death count per million would go up by the following amount's.
Russia | 1034.15 |
Peru | 623.96 |
India | 531.36 |
Mexico | 513.11 |
South Africa | 492.37 |
Italy | 484.94 |
Brazil | 426.24 |
United States | 404.24 |
Portugal | 379.66 |
United Kingdom | 370.51 |
Spain | 349.72 |
Germany | 305.59 |
The US cumulative death rate in May 2023 was 20% higher than Europe.
The US is 4% of the world's population but as of April 15, 2023 the US had 16% of world deaths.
By February 2023 about 70% of Americans were completely vaccinated while around 80% of Europeans were.
China seems to have stopped reporting, but they had severely undercounted in the past.
Russia reports 2,679 cumulative deaths per Million, but they have undercounted according to studies.
Number's are 7-day averages.
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
The numbers are significantly undercounted. The latest WHO report in May 2022 says there have been around 15 million cumulative cases way more that the 6 million reported.
An April 2022 CDC report showed that about 60% of Americans had been infected, while official cumulative case counts were 27%.
Wastewater counts in the summer of 2020 indicate actual case counts are 3-5 times higher than reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.
See Data Accuracy
Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths.
Oceana has one of the highest infection rates as of January 2022, because of an outbreak in Australia, but over the course of the virus they have the lowest total death rate, 148 per million, of any continent.
Cumulative Case Rate:
300,000 cases per million is 30%
Study: Home COVID tests in the US lead to vast undercount of cases, positivity rates | JAMA Network Open Jan 2023
See Data Accuracy
Chart with all countries listed above
There are multiple sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence.
From Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences July 2021
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New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers New Mexico's death rate would be 2,463 which would it at #42.
The tri-state area, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, death rates were initially the highest.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut were the first states to be hit hard in the Spring of 2020 with case rates 3-5 times higher than the national average. Hospitals were still learning how to treat it.
And they had increased exposure because of international travel to New York City and New York City commuters in New Jersey and Connecticut.
By August 2021 after 50% of the country had been vaccinated, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut's cumulative death rates were still in the top 10 states for death rates, but they were also in the top 10 for highest vaccination rates.
I spent 40 years in New Jersey and have a lot of friends there. They are generally very health conscious, so this bothered me and I looked a little closer.
If you look at death rates from September 2021 (after a 50% rollout of vaccinations) to October 2023 they have the lowest death rates.
Here's some data if you break the chart above into two time periods:
Top 10 cumulative death rates per million
Thru Aug 2021 (17 mos) | Sept 2021 – Oct 2023 (26 months) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey | 3005 | West Virginia | 2941 | |
New York | 2798 | Kentucky | 2632 | |
Massachusetts | 2632 | Tennessee | 2475 | |
Mississippi | 2608 | Florida | 2374 | |
Rhode Island | 2590 | New Mexico | 2285 | |
Arizona | 2536 | Arkansas | 2253 | |
Louisiana | 2478 | Michigan | 2217 | |
Alabama | 2399 | Wyoming | 2188 | |
Connecticut | 2330 | Oklahoma | 2164 | |
South Dakota | 2318 | Arizona | 2104 | |
US | 1903 | US | 1658 | |
US per month | 112 | 62 | ||
Lowest 10 | ||||
Illinois | 1256 | |||
New York | 1217 | |||
Maryland | 1188 | |||
Connecticut | 1135 | |||
New Jersey | 1086 | |||
Vermont | 1066 | |||
Hawaii | 1065 | |||
California | 1028 | |||
Massachusetts | 994 | |||
Utah | 908 |
See Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
and Data Accuracy
See also: A coronavirus mystery: Why New York was hit so much harder than L.A. County | LA Times, Aug 2023.
For every 1 million New York City residents, about 5,400 of them died from COVID-19. A higher rate than any state.
The comparable figure in L.A. County is about 3,540, about the average for the country.
The article doesn't point to any specific reason for the difference.
Percent of population with no vaccination. May 2023
Vaccine Tracker | USA Facts
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Death rate - vaccination rate chart
Not: The death rate values here are for Aug '21 , (when vaccination rates hit 50%) - Oct '23, are not the same as the values in the death rate table above which are all deaths over the course of the pandemic.
Chart Data
Deaths as a function of % voting for Trump in 2020
There is a stronger correlation here than with vaccination rate
Probably because most Trump voters have 2 bad habits: 1. Not wearing masks in addition to 2. Not getting vaccinated.
The median for Biden voters is 1320 deaths per million; for Trump voters is 1890 deaths per million.
i.e. a 43% higher death rate for Trump voters.
With 332 million people in the US about half following Trump guidelines for COVID safety that is 94 million unnecessary deaths.
This is a simple analysis. Other variables should be considered. e.g. Many more Trump voters live in rural areas with lower healthcare availability.
Source: KFF Health News
World | United States: | California | North Central California
World
Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:
Click on the charts to get the current version from the source.
- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.
- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )
I started this chart as the Omicron surge was growing to show how countries were following a similar pattern.
I kept it because they were generally indicative of Europe and North America.
I added New Zealand and Taiwan because they were traditionally the lowest rates in the world and were having a surge in March and May after the world Omicron variant surge in January.
New Zealand, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan which had been doing much better with cumulative death rates of less than 600 per million while Europe and North America were 4 times higher around 2,500 deaths per million.
Omicron infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants.
WHO's Western Pacific Region rates have been very low until Omicron. Their cumulative death rates over COVID have ranged from 460 - 650 per million, while the US and European cumulative death rates have ranged from 2,000 to 3,000.
My theory is that the western countries have gotten close the herd immunity (A CDC report in April 2022 says that almost 60% of the U.S. has been infected.)
which kept their new infection rates down.
U.S.: 106,376,396 cases; 32,146 cases per 100K
30,000 out of 100,000 is 30%.
CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, April 29, 2022 showed that almost 60% of people in the US had been affected.
Other studies by the WHO and wastewater testing showed similar undercounting.
Undercounting got worse during 2022 with vaccines resulting in asymptomatic cases and people doing self-testing.
See Data Accuracy.
China
Note: China numbers are low in the above chart and most public data because of undercounting in cases and deaths.
They are low in the chart below also.
As of Feb 8th, Jan 12 was the last update.
See China below.
Click on the map below to go the source where you can click on individual countries for their rates.
United States:
The U.S. will end it's COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) on May 11, 2023.
They no longer track new cases:
Daily New Cases per 100,000 2022-2023
Jan 10 | < Mar 20 | Apr 7 | Apr 23 | May 9 | May 20 | Jun 2 | Jun 17 | July 1 | jul 18 | Aug 18 | Oct 1 | Oct 19 | Nov 9 | Jan 6 2023 | Feb 13 2023 | Mar 23 2023 |
|
Northeast | 302 | 9 | 14 | 24 | 36 | 49 | 33 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 24 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 6 |
Midwest | 185 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 30 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 29 | 28 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 8 |
West | 215 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 43 | 45 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 6 |
South | 203 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 42 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 14 | 5 |
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06/05 | 1/7 | 4/2 | 5/27 | 11/11 | 12/10 | 1/13 | 2/1 | 3/3 | 4/26 | 5/18 | |
United States | 4.2 | 195 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
California | 2.3 | 166 | 6 | 39 | 10 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 3.1 | * |
Bay Area | |||||||||||
Alameda | 9 | 50 | 10 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.9 | ||
Contra-Costa | 50 | 9 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3.8 | 3.3 | |||
Marin | 60 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | |||
Napa | 1.4 | 149 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
San Francisco | 167 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.4 | |
San Mateo | 1.3 | 174 | 11 | 61 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
Sanoma | 182 | 8 | 46 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | |
Santa Clara | 1.3 | 163 | 11 | 59 | 10 | 33 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
Solano | 1.3 | 120 | 6 | 50 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
Greater Sacramento | |||||||||||
El Dorado | 30 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | |||
Placer | 1.3 | 91 | 4 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
Sacramento | 0.3 | 117 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Sierra | 0 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
Sutter | 99 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | |
Yolo | 1.8 | 159 | 11 | 43 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
Davis | 212† | 4 |
Variants
Aug 23 - A new variant, BA.2.86 (Pirola), with 36 mutations of the BA2 strain has been detected in Virginia, Michigan and Ohio, the UK, Israel, Denmark and South Africa.
There is a concern it could dodge the body's immune defenses from prior infections or vaccinations.
Source: Variant Proportions - Nowcast CDC
See Variants in Corona Facts here
Wastewater Testing
The CDC is gathering wastewater data from over 1,000 sites across the country.
Peak average in January 2022 of 21,525 was 55 per 100,000.
Tracking COVID-19 in California | NY Times
Summary
Some charts here are only updated every several weeks,
but you can click on the chart to get the current version.
Cumulative to May 26, 2023
Cases per 100,000 | Deaths per 100,000 | Fully Vaccinated |
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United States | 32,366 | 352 | 70% |
California | 31,054 | 260 | 81% |
Bay Area | |||
Alameda | 24,934 | 131 | 86.0% |
Contra-Costa | 26,500 | 141 | 86.2% |
Marin | 18,206 | 100 | 89.8% |
Napa | 26,037 | 125 | 79.4% |
San Francisco | 24,582 | 140 | 87.3% |
San Mateo | 25,813 | 98 | 87.7% |
Sonoma | 24,170 | 114 | 85.7% |
Santa Clara | 26,313 | 146 | 87.9% |
Solano | 28,370 | 109 | 71.2% |
Greater Sacramento | |||
El Dorado | 21,253 | 132 | 64.4% |
Placer | 24,442 | 180 | 72.3% |
Sacramento | 27,583 | 239 | 71.8% |
Sierra | 12,765 | 171 | 54.1% |
Sutter | 29,836 | 251 | 62.0% |
Yolo | 25,936 | 211 | 75.4% |
North Central California Counties:
" -
Average new cases per day per 100,000 .June 2021 -
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |||||||||
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06/05 | 1/7 | 4/2 | 5/27 | 11/11 | 12/10 | 1/13 | 2/1 | 3/3 | 4/26 | 5/18 | |
United States | 4.2 | 195 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
California | 2.3 | 166 | 6 | 39 | 10 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 3.1 | * |
Bay Area | |||||||||||
Alameda | 9 | 50 | 10 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.9 | ||
Contra-Costa | 50 | 9 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3.8 | 3.3 | |||
Marin | 60 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | |||
Napa | 1.4 | 149 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
San Francisco | 167 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.4 | |
San Mateo | 1.3 | 174 | 11 | 61 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
Sanoma | 182 | 8 | 46 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | |
Santa Clara | 1.3 | 163 | 11 | 59 | 10 | 33 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
Solano | 1.3 | 120 | 6 | 50 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
Greater Sacramento | |||||||||||
El Dorado | 30 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | |||
Placer | 1.3 | 91 | 4 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
Sacramento | 0.3 | 117 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Sierra | 0 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
Sutter | 99 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | |
Yolo | 1.8 | 159 | 11 | 43 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
Davis | 212† | 4 |
Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow. But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate. I attribute that to 30,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back.
The Bay Area in California which has had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind Northern California and in the Fall of 2022 it had the highest rate. See Bay Area vs other CA regions.
My theory is that as of August 2022 the Bay area has had the lowest death rate, less than half the other regions, so the population does not have a built up immunity from prior infections.
Counties where I and my family live:
Data from the previous week is Updated Thursdays
Note: When you click on the chart it will go to the California dashboard and fill in the county, but you have to scroll down and click on "Get County Data"" to get the updated chart.
As of May 11, 2023, the COVID-19 California Dashboard is no longer reporting aggregate cases; CDPH will continue to report sustainable and meaningful data that allow for timely monitoring of COVID-19
New cases are no longer reported. Poivity rates are shown here.
San Mateo County
Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.
City Wastewater Data
Historic Wastewater Testing - Healthy Davis Together
Comparison of the Healthy Davis wastewater testing with CA cepartment of health results from the Omicron outbreak to November 2022.
The purpose is to show than many cases were not reported after the Omicon rates dropped.
Note: The Yolo Co. Dept. of Health stopped reporting data for Davis, so we have a little apples vs oranges situation, but Davis numbers tracked Yolo Co. numbers but were a little lower.
In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.
This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.
Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.
Note: Wastewater results tend to be more variable than reported cases. See the national wastewater results above.
California, San Francisco Co, Santa Clara, Santa Clara Co, San Mateo, Alameda Co, Alameda, Sierra, Yolo, Yolo Co, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Sutter Co, Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV
Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News
More N. Central California data
Regional Cumulative Death Rates
These stats are not updated as frequently. Death rates are low compared to the first 2 years, so the the curve has flattened out.
See Undercounting - Actual Deaths below.
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
Asia is significantly low because of undercounting in China and India.01..lat
* Deaths are significantly undercounted. See Data Accuracy
Mexico and Russia were significantly undercounted in a May 2021 U. Washington Study below.
If you account for that, Russia would have 8,400 deaths per million, Mexico would have 4,700 deaths per million and India would have 3,600 deaths per million per a July 2021 Wall Street Journal report.
China could be up to 130
Deaths in other countries could be up to 40% higher.
Chart with all countries listed above
Cumulative Case Rate:
Study: Home COVID tests in the US lead to vast undercount of cases, positivity rates | JAMA Network Open Jan 2023
See Data Accuracy
Chart with all countries listed above
Unvaccinated are 14 Times More Likely to Die From COVID | WebMD
US States:
US States Cumulative Death Rates
Total Deaths per million October 20, 2023.
Note: 4,000 deaths per million is 0.4%
Oct 20, 2023 US States Cumulative Death Rates Total Deaths Death per million | worldmeter
Mortality rates for Native Americans were 2.8 times as high as that for the white's according to a December, 2021 Princeton study. Arizona - Native Americans make up 4.6% of Arizona's population, but 16% of those who have died of COVID-19. If you discount the Native American numbers Arizona's death rate would be 4,040 which would put them at #13.
New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
The tri-state area, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, death rates were initially the highest. |
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* Arizona and New Mexico have the highest percentage of Native Americans.
Mortality rates for Native Americans were 2.8 times as high as that for the white's according to a December, 2021 Princeton study.
Arizona - Native Americans make up 4.6% of Arizona's population, but 16% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers Arizona's death rate would be 4,040 which would put them at #13.
New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
If you discount the Native American numbers New Mexico's death rate would be 2,463 which would it at #42.
Source: Worldmeter
Correlation beween Vaccinations and Deaths January, 2023
10 Hign and 10 Low states with % Fully vaccinated with a booster.
Average cumulative death rate for those 2 groups.
The death rate was 50% higher for those states with a low vaccination rate.
States | Top 10 vaccination rates | Bottom 10 vaccination rates |
---|---|---|
Average Vaccination rate | 45.8% | 24.5% |
Average deaths per million | 2,470 | 3,617 |
California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K
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End of Executive Overview
Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:
Regional Cumulative Death Rates
- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.
- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )
China
In early December 2022, China suddenly reversed its "zero Covid" policy. That set off a wave of infections that has swept across the nation, overwhelming hospitals and funeral parlors.
They stoped reporting in January, so we don't know the current status.
With China's population of 1.45 billion, 9,300 cases on January 6 is 6 cases per million.
See The WHO China COVID Dashboard which says there were 34,610 new cases (28 per million) on January 6.
I don't know why the number of cases reported on worldmeter and the cases per million on Our World in Data are lower than the WHO numbers.
28 new cases per million is relatively low, which doesn't account for the large number of hospitalizations. The US had 154 new cases per day per million on Jan 6 and Europe had 130.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has criticized China for not being forthcoming with statistics and not following WHO guidelines for counting deaths since the beginning of COVIE-19 .
China's population is 37% rural, which might account for some lower averages, but not that large a difference. I could not find any data for infection rates in urban places like Shanghai, Wuhan and Bejing.
See China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day at Bloomberg December 23rd.
China's current wave appears to be dominated by two main Omicron subvariants already circulating in other parts of the world: BA.5.2 and BF.7 (which is actually short for BA.5.2.1.7). Both BA.5.2 and BF.7 are from the same Omicron lineage, and have been bubbling along in North America, Europe, other parts of Asia and Australia since mid-to-late 2022.
Local reports indicate that BF.7 is the dominant subvariant currently circulating inside China, with a shorter incubation period, faster transmission rate, and stronger resistance to immunity than previous strains the country has seen.
In the US, BF.7 has dropped from 7% of cases in October 2022 to 2.2% in January 2023.
Could China's COVID-19 outbreak lead to the next variant of concern? Experts say it's not time to panic yet | ABC.net.au
All Countries: Total cases per day
Regions:
It defaults to total cases. You have to click on cases and select "new_cases" to see trends.
Enlarge
Source: Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS)
Europe
Place | Popu- lation M | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Total | % of popu- lation | New /100K | Total /1M |
||
Europe | 748 | 102,488,473 | 1,568,273 | 13.7% | 150 | 2,097 |
UK | 68 | 15,066,395 | 151,612 | 22.2% | 183 | 2,230 |
Germany | 84 | 7,885,229 | 116,098 | 9.4% | 76 | 1,382 |
France | 65 | 13,569,675 | 126,721 | 20.8% | 421 | 1,941 |
Italy | 60 | 8,356,514 | 140,548 | 13.8% | 279 | 2,327 |
Russia | 146 | 10,747,125 | 319,911 | 7.4% | 125 | 2,191 |
Ireland | 5 | 1,078,181 | 6,035 | 21.5% | 423 | 1,202 |
Israel | 9 | 1,718,989 | 8,298 | 18.5% | 393 | 892 |
S. America | 435 | 42,651,273 | 1,197,438 | 9.8% | 61 | 2,753 |
Brazil | 214 | 22,927,203 | 620,847 | 10.7% | 32 | 2,901 |
Columbia | 52 | 5,475,904 | 130,731 | 10.5% | 57 | 2,514 |
N America* | 595 | 77,705,633 | 1,273,825 | 13.1% | 148 | 2,141 |
United States | 334 | 66,209,535 | 872,086 | 19.8% | 236 | 2,611 |
Mexico | 131 | 4,302,069 | 301,107 | 3.3% | 22 | 2,302 |
Canada | 38 | 2,717,982 | 31,317 | 7.1% | 97 | 820 |
Asia | 4,461 | 89,335,098 | 1,269,492 | 2.0% | 9 | 285 |
China | 1,439 | 104,745 | 4,636 | 0.01% | 0 | 3 |
India | 1,391 | 36,850,962 | 485,780 | 2.6% | 12 | 349 |
S. Korea | 51 | 687,984 | 6,281 | 1.3% | 7 | 123 |
Taiwan | 24 | 17,692 | 851 | 0.1% | 0.3 | 35 |
Africa | 1,341 | 10,425,479 | 233,744 | 0.8% | 3 | 174 |
South Africa | 60 | 3,552,043 | 93,117 | 5.9% | 11 | 1,552 |
Botswana | 2 | 237,678 | 2,514 | 9.8% | 47 | 1,039 |
Oceania | 42 | 1,803,984 | 4,921 | 4.3% | 250 | 117 |
Australia | 26 | 1,632,958 | 2,627 | 6.3% | 423 | 101 |
New Zealand | 5 | 15,001 | 52 | 0.3% | 1 | 10 |
Estimated % counted United States 63% Mexico 35% W. Europe 70-80% Russia 18%
See estimated actual death counts at U. Washington Study below.
The major countries (population > 10 million) with the highest death rate are.
Peru 6,002 Bulgaria 4,331 Hungary 3,868 Czechia 3,242 Romania 3,041 Brazil 2,874 If you adjust for the undercounting in Mexico and Russia their rates would be: Mexico 4,862 deaths per million Russia 8,358 deaths per million Regional Death Rates: S. America 2,732; N. America 1,999; Europe 1,968 Asia, Africa and Oceana all have less than 300 deaths per million. New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all had less than 100 deaths per million.
A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.
Because Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths we dont compute a world rate. There are smaller countries in Asia and Africa who's infection and death rates are similar to other developed countries.
See World Countries Cumulative Cases and Deaths below
See US States Cumulative Deaths below
Data Accuracy
The most complete study to date was released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 5th 2022
A World Health Organization (WHO) study
shows that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as excess mortality) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.
They measured the increase in the death toll, which was COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemics impact on health systems and society). e.g. lack of access to ERs and intensive care.
Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemics impact on health systems and society).
Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The production of these estimates is a result of a global collaboration supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and country consultations. with over 30 researchers from around the world.
See more from the WHO.
The pandemics true death toll | economist
Study: Home COVID tests in the US lead to vast undercount of cases, positivity rates | JAMA Network Open Jan 2023
Previous Studies:
Almost 60% of U.S. Has Been Infected by COVID-19, CDC Says;
Researchers looked at the presence of coronavirus antibodies to estimate the rate of infection.
During September 2021February 2022, a convenience
sample of blood specimens submitted for clinical testing was
analyzed every 4 weeks for anti-N antibodies. the median sample
size per 4-week period was 73,869 .
It indicated 57.7% of Americans had been infected.
Official infections reported were 80.5 Million or 24% of the population, i.e. only 42% of infections were reported.
See WebMD
The report was published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, April 29, 2022
Davis, CA Wastewater testing indicates that in June 2022 only 20% of cases were reported compared to January 2022.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.
See
"COVIDs true death toll: much higher than official records" | Nature March 10, 2022 compares data at the end of 2021 from The pandemics true death toll | The Economist Jan 31, 2022 and The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
The pandemics true death toll | The Economist May 2022
OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS | PER 100,000 | ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS | PER 100,000 | ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Asia | 1,431,831 | 30.6 | 6.4m to 15m | 140 to 330 | +700% |
Europe (incl. EU) | 1,828,826 | 244.2 | 3.1m to 3.3m | 410 to 430 | +70% |
Africa | 253,293 | 18.4 | 1.1m to 3.3m | 79 to 240 | +1,000% |
Latin America and Caribbean | 1,694,146 | 257.2 | 2.4m to 2.7m | 370 to 410 | +50% |
European Union | 1,083,086 | 242.2 | 1.2m to 1.4m | 280 to 300 | +20% |
North America | 1,039,020 | 280.1 | 1.2m to 1.4m | 320 to 370 | +20% |
Oceania | 11,225 | 26.0 | 1.9k to 30k | 4.5 to 70 | 50% |
OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS | PER 100,000 | ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS | PER 100,000 | ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
India | 524,181 | 37.6 | 2.2m to 9.7m | 160 to 700 | +1,000% | |
Russia | 369,644 | 253.3 | 1.2m to 1.3m | 820 to 890 | +200% | |
United States | 998,997 | 300.1 | 1.2m to 1.3m | 350 to 400 | +20% | |
Pakistan | 30,375 | 13.5 | 390k to 1.1m | 170 to 500 | +2,700% | |
Indonesia | 156,396 | 56.6 | 360k to 1.1m | 130 to 410 | +400% | |
Brazil | 664,750 | 310.6 | 770k to 820k | 360 to 380 | +20% | |
Mexico | 324,465 | 249.1 | 670k to 760k | 520 to 580 | +100% | |
Bangladesh | 29,127 | 17.5 | 260k to 760k | 160 to 460 | +1,800% | |
China | 5,203 | 0.4 | 330k to 1.9m | 23 to 130 | +8,500% | |
Poland | 116,164 | 307.3 | 180k to 190k | 480 to 500 | +60% | |
Turkey | 98,870 | 116.3 | 180k to 490k | 210 to 580 | +300% | |
Britain | 177,088 | 259.6 | 140k to 160k | 210 to 230 | 20% | |
Germany | 137,184 | 163.5 | 110k to 130k | 130 to 160 | 10% | |
Italy | 164,846 | 273.1 | 200k to 230k | 320 to 380 | +30% | |
Peru | 212,968 | 638.4 | 220k to 220k | 660 to 670 | +4% |
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),
reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are half the actual rate.
Some examples Estimated % counted. See below.
United States 63%
Mexico 35%
W. Europe 70-80%
Russia 18%
Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
-Countries with the highest actual (estimated) death rates, March 2020 to May 2021
Country | Estimated Actual Total | Reported Total | Reported % of Actual | Deaths per M | Death Rate Rank* | Pop M | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | Mexico | 617,127 | 217,694 | 35% | 4,746 | 19 | 130 |
4 | Brazil | 595,903 | 408,680 | 69% | 2,787 | 10 | 214 |
5 | Russian Federation | 593,610 | 109,334 | 18% | 4,066 | 17 | 146 |
6 | United Kingdom | 209,661 | 150,519 | 72% | 3,075 | 12 | 68 |
7 | Italy | 175,832 | 121,257 | 69% | 2,912 | 11 | 60 |
8 | Iran | 174,177 | 72,906 | 42% | 2,051 | 6 | 85 |
9 | Egypt | 170,041 | 13,529 | 8% | 1,635 | 4 | 104 |
10 | South Africa | 160,452 | 54,390 | 34% | 2,676 | 8 | 60 |
11 | Poland | 149,855 | 68,237 | 46% | 3,963 | 15 | 38 |
12 | Peru | 147,765 | 62,739 | 42% | 4,547 | 18 | 33 |
13 | Ukraine | 138,507 | 46,737 | 34% | 3,184 | 13 | 44 |
1 | United States | 905,289 | 574,043 | 63% | 2,722 | 9 | 333 |
14 | France | 132,680 | 105,506 | 80% | 2,029 | 5 | 65 |
15 | Spain | 123,786 | 85,365 | 69% | 2,647 | 7 | 47 |
16 | Germany | 120,729 | 83,256 | 69% | 1,437 | 3 | 84 |
17 | Indonesia | 118,796 | 47,150 | 40% | 438 | 1 | 271 |
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates. | |||||||
Czechia | 41,446 | 29,574 | 71% | 3,910 | 14 | 11 | |
Hungary | 38,787 | 28,919 | 75% | 3,970 | 16 | 10 | |
Bulgaria | 38,640 | 16,905 | 44% | 5,600 | 20 | 7 |
Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.
A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.
"Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic a study by Researchers at the University of Washingtons Institute of Health Metrics published in the Lancet March 10, 2022 . They found,
"Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5.94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18.2 million (95% uncertainty interval) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120.3 deaths per 100000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4.07 million), the USA (1.13 million ), Russia (1.07 million ), Mexico (798), Brazil (792000), Indonesia 736,000 , and Pakistan 664,000"
At Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis - The Lancet, Published in April 2022,
They looked at global data from the start of the Pandemic to November 2021 with information from The
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and others, they estimate that
over 40% of the global population was infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021.
Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation", April 2022,
"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported."
See State Death Rates
See US Epicenters
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021
"Coronavirus Updates"" in the Washington Post Dec 19, 2022 reported that the rates are up nationwide.
A contributing factor was Public sentiment toward vaccines and mask mandates are some of the contributing factors to the death rate.
One study found people living in more conservative areas of the United States were more likely to die from deaths linked to covid-19.
"Covid death rates were 26 percent higher in areas where voters lean conservative."
California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K
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North Central California Counties
North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.
Cumulative to May 26, 2023
Cases per 100,000 | Deaths per 100,000 | Fully Vaccinated |
|
---|---|---|---|
United States | 32,366 | 352 | 70% |
California | 31,054 | 260 | 81% |
Bay Area | |||
Alameda | 24,934 | 131 | 86.0% |
Contra-Costa | 26,500 | 141 | 86.2% |
Marin | 18,206 | 100 | 89.8% |
Napa | 26,037 | 125 | 79.4% |
San Francisco | 24,582 | 140 | 87.3% |
San Mateo | 25,813 | 98 | 87.7% |
Sonoma | 24,170 | 114 | 85.7% |
Santa Clara | 26,313 | 146 | 87.9% |
Solano | 28,370 | 109 | 71.2% |
Greater Sacramento | |||
El Dorado | 21,253 | 132 | 64.4% |
Placer | 24,442 | 180 | 72.3% |
Sacramento | 27,583 | 239 | 71.8% |
Sierra | 12,765 | 171 | 54.1% |
Sutter | 29,836 | 251 | 62.0% |
Yolo | 25,936 | 211 | 75.4% |
The 10 counties who voted for Biden in 2020 averaged a total of 1,203 deaths per million over the course of the virus as of March 12, 2022 compared to the 2 counties who voted for Trump which average averaged 1,870 deaths per million (55% higher).
* Sierra County had only 12 new cases from Feb 15, 2021 to July 4, 2021 with a 7 day average of close to 0.
At the beginning of july, the beginning of September and middle of October they had an outbreak raising the 7-day average to 3 cases per day making the rate per 100,000 100 cases per day.
With a population of just over 3,000 a small outbreak results in a high rate (new cases per 100,000)
But their cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is the lowest of all counties represented here.
New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.
Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.
Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.
NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC
Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.
% Vaccinated:
Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.
Those who are vaccinated are about six times less likely to contract the virus and 14 times less likely to die from it.
COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.
New Cases driven by largest countries.
Spikes in Daily Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn
Note: A report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian governments former chief economic advisor, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University said the actual number of deaths in India was likely between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. This is 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported, so would put India at the top of the list of death rates.
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
* A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths instead of the 460,000 reported, increasing the world total to 8 Million.
See Indias Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions WSJ
Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.
Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.
Country | Estimated Actual Total | Reported Total | Reported % of Actual | Actual Deaths per M | Death Rate Rank* | Pop M | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | United States of America | 905,289 | 574,043 | 63% | 2,722 | 9 | 333 |
2 | India | 654,395 | 221,181 | 34% | 470 | 2 | 1391 |
3 | Mexico | 617,127 | 217,694 | 35% | 4,746 | 19 | 130 |
4 | Brazil | 595,903 | 408,680 | 69% | 2,787 | 10 | 214 |
5 | Russian Federation | 593,610 | 109,334 | 18% | 4,066 | 17 | 146 |
6 | United Kingdom | 209,661 | 150,519 | 72% | 3,075 | 12 | 68 |
7 | Italy | 175,832 | 121,257 | 69% | 2,912 | 11 | 60 |
8 | Iran | 174,177 | 72,906 | 42% | 2,051 | 6 | 85 |
9 | Egypt | 170,041 | 13,529 | 8% | 1,635 | 4 | 104 |
10 | South Africa | 160,452 | 54,390 | 34% | 2,676 | 8 | 60 |
11 | Poland | 149,855 | 68,237 | 46% | 3,963 | 15 | 38 |
12 | Peru | 147,765 | 62,739 | 42% | 4,547 | 18 | 33 |
13 | Ukraine | 138,507 | 46,737 | 34% | 3,184 | 13 | 44 |
14 | France | 132,680 | 105,506 | 80% | 2,029 | 5 | 65 |
15 | Spain | 123,786 | 85,365 | 69% | 2,647 | 7 | 47 |
16 | Germany | 120,729 | 83,256 | 69% | 1,437 | 3 | 84 |
17 | Indonesia | 118,796 | 47,150 | 40% | 438 | 1 | 271 |
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates. | |||||||
Czechia | 41,446 | 29,574 | 71% | 3,910 | 14 | 11 | |
Hungary | 38,787 | 28,919 | 75% | 3,970 | 16 | 10 | |
Bulgaria | 38,640 | 16,905 | 44% | 5,600 | 20 | 7 |
Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.
23 Countries of Interest - Infection Rates
We are tracking 56 countries of interest based on size (generally population > 5 M) tourism, economy (G20), relationships with the U.S., and tracked by the The World Health Organization (WHO) out of 230 countries and territories tracked by worldmeter and 218 in Our World in Data and worldvision. The U.N. lists 193 countries plus 3 non members who have nation-hood rights (Vatican City, Taiwan, and Kosovo)
Rates in some smaller countries have a higher rate.
See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia
Countries with the highest peak infection rates.
We are tracking 56 countries of interest based on size (generally population > 5 M) tourism, economy (G20), relationships with the U.S., and tracked by the The World Health Organization (WHO) out of 230 countries and territories tracked by worldmeter and 218 in Our World in Data and worldvision. The U.N. lists 193 countries plus 3 non members who have nation-hood rights (Vatican City, Taiwan, and Kosovo)
Rates in some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.
Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.
Country | Date | New Cases |
---|---|---|
North America | Jan 12, 2021 | 470 |
Europe | Nov 2, 2020 | 370 |
South America | June 3, 2021 | 334 |
Asia | May 5, 2021 | 107 |
Africa | Jan 11,2021 | 24 |
Belgium | Oct 30, 2020 | 1,536 |
Ireland | Jan 10, 2021 | 1,323 |
Portugal | Jan 28, 2021 | 1,264 |
Israel | Sept 14, 2021 | 1,254 |
Czechia | 10/27/20 | 1,200 |
Hungary | 03/26/21 | 960 |
Botswana | 08/07/21 | 946 |
United Kingdom | Jan 10, 2021 | 881 |
France | Nov 3, 2020 | 832 |
Austria | 11/14/20 | 806 |
Spain | Jan 26, 2021 | 791 |
United States | Jan 11, 2021 | 757 |
Argentina | june 1, 2021 | 728 |
Turkey | Apr 21, 2021 | 714 |
Nambia | 06/30/21 | 695 |
Italy | Nov 13, 2020 | 578 |
Italy | Nov 13, 2020 | 578 |
Columbia | June 6, 2021 | 527 |
Sweden | May 4, 2021 | 500 |
Costa Rica | May 18, 2021 | 483 |
South Africa | Jan 11, 2021 | 321 |
Germany | Dec 22, 2020 | 306 |
Peru | 04/13/21 | 297 |
India | May 6, 2021 | 282 |
Canada | Apr 16, 2021 | 232 |
Russia | May 13, 2021 | 193 |
Mexico | Dec 24, 2020 | 81 |
Note: There are small countries (< 5 Million population) with more cases and deaths per million.
See Worldmeter and click on headings to sort.
Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported.
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.
The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers.
Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, xgxg020 to May 2021
Country | Estimated Actual Total | Reported Total | Reported % of Actual | Deaths per M |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bulgaria | 38,640 | 16,905 | 44% | 5,600 |
Mexico | 617,127 | 217,694 | 35% | 4,746 |
Peru | 147,765 | 62,739 | 42% | 4,547 |
Russian Federation | 593,610 | 109,334 | 18% | 4,066 |
Hungary | 38,787 | 28,919 | 75% | 3,970 |
Poland | 149,855 | 68,237 | 46% | 3,963 |
Czechia | 41,446 | 29,574 | 71% | 3,910 |
Ukraine | 138,507 | 46,737 | 34% | 3,184 |
United Kingdom | 209,661 | 150,519 | 72% | 3,075 |
Italy | 175,832 | 121,257 | 69% | 2,912 |
Brazil | 595,903 | 408,680 | 69% | 2,787 |
United States of America | 905,289 | 574,043 | 63% | 2,722 |
South Africa | 160,452 | 54,390 | 34% | 2,676 |
Spain | 123,786 | 85,365 | 69% | 2,647 |
Iran | 174,177 | 72,906 | 42% | 2,051 |
France | 132,680 | 105,506 | 80% | 2,029 |
Egypt | 170,041 | 13,529 | 8% | 1,635 |
Germany | 120,729 | 83,256 | 69% | 1,437 |
India | 654,395 | 221,181 | 34% | 470 |
Omicron Spread
Source: What omicron's fast spread could mean | NPR Dec 10 |
Source: Worldmeter |
Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.
Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins
See Positivity Rate for more.
See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker
COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death
See 1918 Flu
US States Cumulative Death Rates
Total Deaths per million per million Apr 20, 2023
Oct 20, 2023 US States Cumulative Death Rates Total Deaths Death per million | worldmeter
Mortality rates for Native Americans were 2.8 times as high as that for the white's according to a December, 2021 Princeton study. Arizona - Native Americans make up 4.6% of Arizona's population, but 16% of those who have died of COVID-19. If you discount the Native American numbers Arizona's death rate would be 4,040 which would put them at #13.
New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19.
The tri-state area, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, death rates were initially the highest.
New Mexico - Native Americans make up 11% of New Mexico's population, but 50% of those who have died of COVID-19. Vaccinations Jan 12, 2023 Percent of the Population 5 Years of Age and Older with an Updated (Bivalent) Booster Dose Reported to CDC See Positivity Rate. The epicenters keeps changing: The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29 Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.
I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
States with rates 50% higher than the national average are in bold.
|
California Regions ranked by new cases per 100,000 May 24, 2023
See the See Timeline for a history of infection rates and the tier system October 2020 - June 2021 (Alpha surge).
Bay Area Region vs Other Regions
A LA Times report said that in January 2022 the death rate in southern California was 3 times higher than the Bay Area.
The Bay Area in California has traditionally had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind the Northern California region and was usually lower than the State rate. As of May 2022 the Bay Area cumulative death rate over the life of COVID was about half the other regions. See above.
In May 2022 the Bay Area had the highest rate.
I had a theory that the regions which had higher rates in the past have developed a herd immunity.
However, that has not held up in the last half of 2022 where the Bay Area and Southern California have been trading off for the highest rate.
My new theory is that areas with the highest inter-state and international visitors are affected first. That was the case in the North East states also.
The CDC sampled blood for antibodies from September 2021 to February 2022 and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected, which is much higher than the 24% of cases reported, so we would be approaching heard immunity numbers. However the frequent mutations in the omicron variant messes up the heard immunity theory.
North Central Califronia Counties Map
See county data below.
CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.
California | The COVID Tracking Project
Average new cases per day per 100,000 .
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06/05 | 1/7 | 4/2 | 5/27 | 11/11 | 12/10 | 1/13 | 2/1 | 3/3 | 4/26 | 5/18 | |
United States | 4.2 | 195 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
California | 2.3 | 166 | 6 | 39 | 10 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 3.1 | * |
Bay Area | |||||||||||
Alameda | 9 | 50 | 10 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.9 | ||
Contra-Costa | 50 | 9 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 3.8 | 3.3 | |||
Marin | 60 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | |||
Napa | 1.4 | 149 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
San Francisco | 167 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.4 | |
San Mateo | 1.3 | 174 | 11 | 61 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
Sanoma | 182 | 8 | 46 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | |
Santa Clara | 1.3 | 163 | 11 | 59 | 10 | 33 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
Solano | 1.3 | 120 | 6 | 50 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
Greater Sacramento | |||||||||||
El Dorado | 30 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | |||
Placer | 1.3 | 91 | 4 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
Sacramento | 0.3 | 117 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Sierra | 0 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
Sutter | 99 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | |
Yolo | 1.8 | 159 | 11 | 43 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
Davis | 212† | 4 |
-->
Bay Area & Sac Area (partial) County Case Rates:
Both numbers are probably low because of many cases not being reported.
Cumulative to May 26, 2023
See Davis Wastewater Testing below.
Cases per 100,000 | Deaths per 100,000 | Fully Vaccinated |
|
---|---|---|---|
United States | 32,366 | 352 | 70% |
California | 31,054 | 260 | 81% |
Bay Area | |||
Alameda | 24,934 | 131 | 86.0% |
Contra-Costa | 26,500 | 141 | 86.2% |
Marin | 18,206 | 100 | 89.8% |
Napa | 26,037 | 125 | 79.4% |
San Francisco | 24,582 | 140 | 87.3% |
San Mateo | 25,813 | 98 | 87.7% |
Sonoma | 24,170 | 114 | 85.7% |
Santa Clara | 26,313 | 146 | 87.9% |
Solano | 28,370 | 109 | 71.2% |
Greater Sacramento | |||
El Dorado | 21,253 | 132 | 64.4% |
Placer | 24,442 | 180 | 72.3% |
Sacramento | 27,583 | 239 | 71.8% |
Sierra | 12,765 | 171 | 54.1% |
Sutter | 29,836 | 251 | 62.0% |
Yolo | 25,936 | 211 | 75.4% |
Data from the previous week is Updated Thursdays
Note: When you click on the chart it will go to the California dashboard and fill in the county, but you have to scroll down and click on "Get County Data"" to get the updated chart.
As of May 11, 2023, the COVID-19 California Dashboard is no longer reporting aggregate cases; CDPH will continue to report sustainable and meaningful data that allow for timely monitoring of COVID-19
Hospitalzations are now used by the CDC instead of caes.
Some Counties I watch:
Note: As of December 1 the California Department of Health has stopped publishing county data.
The LA Times has county data at Tracking COVID-19 in California, You need to search for counties individually.
Note: I think the number below is total people in the hospital because of COVID not new people per day, so it is higher than the table below.
December 5
Entity | Hospital- ized Patients per 100K | 14-day change in Positive patients |
---|---|---|
california | 4.0 | +10.9% |
Yolo | 2.3 | +67% |
San Mateo | 3.0 | +38% |
Placer | 12.6 | +8% |
Sacramento | 5.1 | +16% |
solano | 5.5 | +56% |
Napa | 3.8 | 0% |
Entity | current | low | high | Current % of high |
---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. | 0.81 | 0.27 | 6.02 | 12% |
Calif | 0.99 | 0.38 | 5.16 | 19% |
Yolo | 1.22 | 0.13 | 1.40 | 87% |
San Mateo | 1.06 | 0.23 | 3.11 | 30% |
Placer * | 3.32 | 1.31 | 9.1 | 35% |
Sacramento | 1.26 | 0.57 | 6.26 | 16% |
Solano | 1.09 | 0.75 | 8.87 | 10% |
Napa | 1.39 | 0.38 | 5.20 | 27% |
Positivity | ||||
Sutter | 29.0% | 3.7% | 31.0% | 94% |
New cases are no longer reported. Positivity rates are shown here.
* LA Times may report total for 7-days not the per-day-average.
Yolo Co. Covid-data-tracker| CDC
Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.
San Mateo Cities cases per day and cumulative per 100,000 Jan 23, 2023
This data was discontinued if February 2023.
Area | Total cases per 100K | Last 14 days per 100K |
---|---|---|
US | 31,030 | 14 |
California | 30,260 | 10 |
San Mateo Co. | 24,910 | 9 |
Colma | 73,040 | 27 |
Broadmoor | 27,810 | 21 |
Ladera | 15,310 | 14 |
San Bruno | 24,840 | 11 |
Millbrae | 19,210 | 11 |
South San Francisco | 27,410 | 11 |
Woodside | 17,670 | 10 |
Burlingame | 20,090 | 10 |
Portola Valley | 13,980 | 9 |
Daly City | 26,660 | 9 |
North Fair Oaks | 34,690 | 9 |
Pacifica | 19,340 | 9 |
Redwood City | 24,670 | 9 |
Atherton | 17,440 | 8 |
Belmont | 19,000 | 8 |
Brisbane | 21,610 | 8 |
San Carlos | 19,250 | 8 |
Emerald Hills | 17,520 | 8 |
Hillsborough | 15,870 | 7 |
Menlo Park | 22,210 | 7 |
San Mateo | 22,260 | 7 |
East Palo Alto | 40,830 | 6 |
Half Moon Bay | 18,570 | 6 |
Foster City | 15,970 | 5 |
Midcoast Region | 15,180 | 4 |
West Menlo Park | 15,910 | 1 |
La Honda | 8,960 | n/a |
Loma Mar | 8,720 | n/a |
Pescadero | 21,000 | n/a |
Princeton | 3,400 | n/a |
Bay Area Wastewater
Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford
California, Sacramento Yolo, San Mateo Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News
Other
Old News
The european surge of BA.2.75 seems to have peaked.
Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation",
"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported.
As of December 4th The Omicron variant had been detected in at least 38 countries but no deaths have yet been reported.
North America and Europe are still well off their highs of 450 and 350 cases per million per day.
Africa's cases cases are concentrated in 6 countries, Tunisia, Nambia, South Africa, Botswana, Libia and Zambia, where the combined case rate is 350 per day per million.
But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.
See U. Washington study.
I eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.
We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.
See Risk Assessment
We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.
There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.