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Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | Forcasting

Contents: The Numbers:
World: Regions | Latin America | Asia | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States: Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California:: CA Current notes: | Regional Stay At Home Order | Vaccination Phases: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical): | North Central California Counties | Holiday surge
Yolo & Santa Clara Counties:: Yolo County | Santa Clara County | Davis & Palo Alto | Yolo County Vaccination Info

What's new other than updated charts:

• U.S. Vaccination Progress by state.
• California Vaccination Schedule:
• Yolo County Vaccination Info

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October.
. You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
and Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States | Nature Communications Sept 2020.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

World Stats:

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

This chart hasn't been updated since December.

Case Rate Dec 16, 2020

Region	Population	New Cases	New Cases per Million
US	331,000,000	220,386	666
Europe	747,636,026	345,000	461
Latin America	653,962,331	68,000	104
Middle East	411,000,000	20,000	49
Asia	4,641,054,775	60,000	13
Africa	1,347,333,004	19,000	14

See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

January 2

We've included the countries out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M), with the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection. Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC

Other countries - Deaths per Million: Pakistan - 438; Ireland - 423; Israel - 356; Belgium - 176; Peru - 118; Hungary - 117; Argentina - 100; Switzerland - 100; Chile - 91; Bolivia - 82; Netherlands - 76; Iran - 68; Ireland - 53; Costa Rica - 47; Israel - 46; Australia - 36; South Korea - 2; Pakistan - 5; New Zeland - 5; China - 3; New Zeland - 0.5Taiwan - 0.3
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

During an outbreak of a pandemic the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease. Actual infections are greater than confirmed cases and there is a lag between case counts and deaths.
See more at Mortality Risk of COVID-19 - Our World in Data
See also: Mortality Analyses - Case Fatality Rate | Johns Hopkins

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.

Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand

10 most populated countries Total and % infected. Dec 21

	Pop Million	Total Cases M	% infected
United States	330	19.13	5.8%
Brazil	212	7.48	3.5%
Russia	143	3.02	2.1%
Mexico	129	1.38	1.1%
India	1,325	10.21	0.8%
Bangladesh	163	0.509	0.3%
Indonesia	273	0.713	0.3%
Pakistan	233	0.473	0.2%
China	1,394	0.96	0.1%
Nigeria	214	0.084	0.04%

In early June when Brazil had the highest number of total new cases in the world, their government removed comprehensive numbers on coronavirus cases and deaths from the Health Ministry's website, claiming without offering evidence that state officials had been reporting inflated figures to secure more federal funding. The numbers were later brought back after a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing the data.

United Kingdom - England - Jan 9
New Variant:
UK and Ireland case rates have shot up since new variants of COVID-19 were discovered.
The U.K. variant was reported on December 14.
Some people are calling it a strain but a strain of a virus has distinct properties and a particular immune response. These are variants.

The South African variant was from three people from Ireland who traveled to South Africa over the Christmas holidays. They think it has been contained as of January 9.
The U.K. variant is more common than the South African variant in Ireland.
Estimates are that the new variant is 50 - 70% more contagious than the previously circulating form of the virus.

Current UK rates

Place	Popu- lation	Cases		Deaths		Cases		Deaths		Posi- tivity Rate
		Total	New *	Total	New*	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M	New /1M
United Kingdom	66,650,000	3,072,349	59,653	81,431	915	4.6%	90	1,222	13.7

United States:

United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer

See Positivity Rate.

A Columbia University report states that as of October more than half of the COVID-19 fatalities in the United States were "avoidable". US's higher mortality rate is because of a confluence of factors, stemming from delayed responses, to missed opportunities, to inadequate guidance, coordination, and leadership. Each action - or inaction - had a substantial role in distinguishing the U.S. response from other developed nations.
South Korea and the U.S. both discovered their first case on January 20, 2020.
By March 16th, over 250,000 South Koreans had been tested - or about one in every 200 citizens. The U.S. didn't reach the same proportional testing rate for several weeks until April 4th. 130,000 - 210,000 AVOIDABLE COVID-19 DEATHS - AND COUNTING - IN THE U.S. | National Center for Disaster Preparedness | Earth Institute - Columbia University

Hot Spots Bold - States 50% higher than national average thru Dec 2 and 30% higher after that.

State	Daily New Cases per 100,000
	April Peak	July 15	Sep. 8	Oct. 8	Nov 2	Dec 2	Jan 4	Jan 15
New York	51	4	6	7	10	37	71	89
New Jersey	39	4	6	8	18	46	49
California	3	20	11	8	10	37	96	105
Florida	6	56	13	12	20	39	62
Arizona	4	51	8	9	19	62	112	122
Texas	3	37	13	13	20	38	63
North Dakota		13	38	60	139	89	26
South Dakota			27	55	134	100	48
Idaho		37	16	28	45	70	50
Wisconsin		14	15	43	80	70	44
Iowa			24	29	66	64	43
Utah		20	13	33	55	86	85	98
Montana			12	42	77	79	36
Nebraska			14	29	60	93	50
Wyoming				25	61	93	38
Minnesota			12	20	46	115	34
Rhode Island				15	42	114	96	92
New Mexico				14	38	88	59
Indiana				18	44	87	71
Nevada				16	27	75	68
Ohio						67	64
Tennessee						72	93	74
Kansas							85	68
Oklahoma							84	95
Arkansas							86	89
Georgia					17	30	80	86
South Carolina								88
Kentucky								80
US	10	20	10	15	24	50	66	71

The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29
Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.
See Epicenters

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Vaccination Progress by state

People per 100K who have received the first vaccine dose.
Top states and others I'm interested in.

South Dakota	5,451		New Jersey	2,486
West Virginia	5,376		Washington	2,472
Colorado	3,789		Pennsylvania	2,385
New York	2,979		California	1,981
Florida	2,949		Nevada	1,904
Illinois	2,613		Arizona	1,894

Percent of doses received administered:

U.S. Vaccination Progress

California

See county data below.

Click on Charts to go to the current version.

• Jan 12 - Stay at Home order canceled for the Greater Scaremento area. See @CAgovernor
  
• Jan 8 - Regional Stay At Home Order - Still in effect for all Regions but Northern California.
• Jan 6 - New Travel Advisory - Out-of-state residents are "strongly discouraged" from entering California, and Californians should avoid nonessential travel more than 120 miles from home.
• Dec 20 Vaccination Phases:
• Dec 10 - Contact Tracing - Configure it under Settings on an iPhone or get the app on Google Play for Android devices. See CA Notify
  It keeps track of people you have been near who also have enabled it. If they test positive for COVID-19 within 2 weeks you will be notified. It is done with random codes, so no personal information is used.

Regional Stay At Home Order

Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov

California Vaccination Phases
Vaccines - COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov

News:

• Jan 13 Gov. Gavin Newsom announcement today puts seniors (65 and older) in line before emergency workers, teachers, childcare providers and food and agriculture workers even as counties complain they already don’t have enough doses to go around.
  UC Davis Health told me at noon on the 13th that they don't have any vaccine but expect to get some soon.
• Jan 11: Governor Gavin Newsom said the state would be stepping up its coronavirus vaccination efforts this week, opening mass vaccination sites at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Petco Park in San Diego and Cal Expo in Sacramento.
  

Phase 1A	Phase 1B	Phase 1C	Phase 2
2.4 million people	15 million people Note this number is much higher than a number the Governor reported on Jan 4	13 million people	704 K people
Underway1	Likely January - February1	Likely March onward	Likely Summer or Fall
Healthcare workers Long-term care residents	1B Tier One: Individuals 75 and older Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: education, childcare, emergency services, and food and agriculture 1B Tier Two: Individuals 65 -74 years of age Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: transportation and logistics; industrial, commercial, residential, and sheltering facilities and services; critical manufacturing Congregate settings with outbreak risk: incarcerated and homeles.	Individuals 50 -64 years of age People 16-64 years of age and have an underlying health condition or disability which increases their risk of severe COVID-19 Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: water and wastewater; defense; energy; chemical and hazardous materials; communications and IT; financial services; government operations / community-based essential functions

1. Timing California COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | SF Chronicle

Yolo County Vaccination Info below

As of Jan 7th California aims to immunize 1 million people within the next 10 days.

1B Tier Two will start when Tier One is completed. Within a Tier there is no priority
There is no state registry to sign-up.
General public should coordinate with your healthcare provider.

Second shot:
Pfizer - 21 days
Moderna - 28 days
2nd shots should take presidence over 1st shots, but as of Jan. 8 there was a controversy over what to do if there is not enough doses for both.

Phase 2 tentatively scheduled for Spring.

Children:
Currently, COVID-19 vaccines are not recommended for children:

• Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is for ages sixteen and above
• Moderna vaccine is for ages eighteen and above.

Links:
See Yolo Co below

- CA COVID-19 News on Twitter
- @GavinNewsom
- @CAgovernor

- Vaccines - When can I get vaccinated |COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov
- Essential Workforce/ Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers (ECIW) lists 131 Essential Job Categories
COVID-19 Hotline 833 422-4255
Email: covidcallcenter@cdph.ca.gov

- V-safe After Vaccination Health Checker | CDC is an app that notifies you when your 2nd dose is due.

A friend said on Fri 1/14 "I just called my medical group (woodland clinic) and was told that I was the first person that called after a memo had come down, 30 minutes prior, to open vaccination clinic appointments."
Another responded, "I just called, a long wait on the phone, but worth it. I have appointments for next Friday"

Yolo County COVID-19 Vaccine Availability - Interest form - The goal of this interest card is to obtain information so that as each Phase and Tier progress, the County can alert you to the availability of the vaccine.

Healthcare Provider Links:

News from UC Davis Health 916 703-5555
UC Davis Health launches COVID-19 patient vaccinations (video) Jan 12.
See more UC Davis Healthcare Vaccination links.

COVID-19 vaccine | Kaiser Permanente What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine 866-454-8855
As of Friday 1/15 they say they are still in Phase 1A, but also include people 65 and older.

COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions | Sutter Health
Yolo County plans to launch an online portal to the public on the week of Jan 11 to begin the process of screening people for Phase 1B.

See California Timeline for details on the timeline.

• March 19th - California was the first state to issue a Stay at home order (Shelter in Place).
• April - 4 stages defined
• June 12 - Most counties can move to Stage 3:
  Indoor dining, hotels, short term rentals, etc.
• June 18 - Mask Mandate:
• Aug 28 - 4 Tier System announced:
• November 25 99% of the state moves to Tier 1 (widespread)
• December 3 - Regional Stay At Home Order

Tiers:
August 28

County risk Level - Tier	New Cases/ 100K	Positivity rate	Activities
1 Widespread	>7	> 8%	Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed
2 Substantial	4-7	5-8%	Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed
3 Moderate	1-3.9	2-4.9%	Some indoor business operations are open with modifications
4 Minimal	< 1	<2%	Most indoor business operations are open with modifications

See Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response for specific guidance.

Dec Regional Stay At Home Order

The state is broken into 5 regions. The Regional Stay Home Order, announced December 3, 2020, will go into effect within 24 hours in regions with less than 15% ICU availability. It prohibits private gatherings of any size, closes sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and requires 100% masking and physical distancing in all others.
The order will remain in effect for at least 3 weeks and, after that period.

All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands, or as otherwise authorized.

Califronia Counties Map

See Regional at the California Timeline for details.

Also About COVID-19 restrictions - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response | COVID-19.ca.gov

California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
  News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project

North Central Califronia Counties Map

The number in the charts below are new cases per 100,000. The source documents use other numbers. Total new cases and weekly total.
Bay area:

Place	Popu- lation	Cases		Deaths		Cases		Deaths		Posi- tivity Rate	% vacc- inated
		Total	New *	Total	New*	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M	New /1M
Jan 15
United States	331,000,000	24,137,064	235,607	402,397	3,384	7.3%	71	1216	10.2	11.4%	3.7%
California	39,510,000	2,925,929	42,304	32,971	536	7.4%	107	834	13.6	12.6%	3.0%
Yolo Co	220,500	9,747	127	131	0.7	4.4%	58	594	3.2		2.0%
Jan 7
Davis	70,560	1,430	17	14		2.0%	24	198
		Because the population of Davis is less than 100K the rate per 100K is higher than the per day total
Jan 15
Santa Clara Co	1,937,570	91,466	1,481	1,065	9	4.7%	76	550	4.8		2.1%
Palo Alto	67,019	1,107	17			1.7%	26

Places where I have friends or family across the country.
November 21

Place	Popu- lation	Cases		Deaths		Cases		Deaths		Posi- tivity Rate
		Total	New *	Total	New*	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M	New /1M
United States	331,000,000	12,341,101	172,205	261,051	1,481	3.7%	52	789	4.5	6.7%
New Jersey	8,882,000	313,863	3,855	15,0071		3.5%	43	1,690		7.9%
California	39,510,000	1,072,272	10,800	18,557	62	2.7%	27	470	1.6	6.4%
Sacramento Co	1,540,975	36,630	464	576		2.4%	30	374
Placer Co	398,329	6,224	77	68		1.6%	19	171
Napa	137,744	2,884	48	17		2.1%	35	123	0.00
Sutter	96,971	4,370	112	23		4.5%	115	237
Washoe Co, NV	471,519	22,407	359	246		4.8%	76	522		16.5%
DuPage Co, IL	922921	41,602	692	703	4	4.5%	75	762	4.3
Sarasota Co, FL	433742	12,319	371	166		2.8%	86	383		6.7%

1. New Jersey reports 2 numbers for deaths the official number is 10 times higher than another number called probable deaths. I couldn't find any explanation.

California
Santa Clara Co
Alameda
Yolo Co
Sutter Co
Solano County Public Health Dashboards
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA
Sacramento
Placer
Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts
Washoe Co. NV

Other

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.

• Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC - Updated frequently

• WHO - World Health Organization: Disease Outbreak News (DONs) | Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19) - Mar 9, 2020 -

• Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center - Updated frequently

• Coronavirus FAQ's by Dr. Megan Murray (Harvard Infectious Disease specialist) | Abundance Foundation - Mar 9, 2020
  Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health - - Updated frequently

• Science Friday:
  Seasrch for CORONA - Science Friday
• Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment

• The numbers - Statistics - Charts

• The big picture - Coronavirus Dashboard | nCoV2019.live
  
• United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer
• Charts
  Coronavirus Update (Live) - Worldometer
  
• Our World in Data
• COVID-19 statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth
• How is the Economy Doing? | USA Facts
• 
• 
• 
• Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries reopen | Financial Times
  Coronavirus chart: has your country's epidemic peaked? | Financial Times
• The COVID Tracking Project | The COVID Tracking Project
  
• COVID-19 Projections