Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Coronavirus statistics | Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | California Reopening Stages
last updated 15 July 2020
Reopening Surge Data added.
Some data only updated once per week.
Contents: The Numbers: World | Latin America | Asia | US | Some State & City numbers | California | North Central California | Tahoe | Yolo County | Placer County | Santa Clara County | Reopening Surge |
Important References (CDC, WHO, ...) | More Data and charts | Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Terms | More Links
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases. I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population. I also wanted to know the number of active cases, the total cases since the start of the epidemic less those that have recovered.
See What is the real number of infected people?

I also wanted to know trends. Is it getting better? i.e. Is the number of new cases per day dropping and the total cases curve flattening out.
This is a sample of the most critical areas (e.g. New York City) and areas where I have friends and family.

At the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I've changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.


World Stats:
Click on charts to go to the source.

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

July 15
Place Cases Deaths
World 13,659,210 585,586


Click on Charts to go to the source.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

Although the number of deaths per million in Latin America and Asia is still fairly low (< 1 to 4) their share of the total is larger because of total population.

Countries with more than 4,000 Total Cases per Million - July 15
Also countries with more than 40 Daily New Cases per Million.
(Countries with over 10 million Population.)
Country Pop. M Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
New Cases
1M
Chile 19 16,708 370 137
USA 331 10,708 420 198
Peru 33 10,121 371 115
Brazil 213 9,083 349 102
Sweden 10 7,560 551 17
Saudi Arabia 35 6,827 66 82
Spain 47 6,495 608 15
Belgium 12 5,416 844 9
Russia 146 5,070 80 45
South Africa 59 5,027 73 195
Portugal 10 4,615 164 30
UK 68 4,291 662 8
Dominican Republic 11 4,267 84 90
Bolivia 12 4,217 160 85
Italy 60 4,025 579 3
Kazakhstan 19 3,287 20 88
Colombia 51 3,141 111 75
Argentina 45 2,365 44 69
Iraq 40 2,031 83 55
Azerbaijan 10 2,476 31 52
Source: Coronavirus Update (Live) - Worldometer


July 15, 2020

Source: Our World


Second tier - Other developed countries with 100 or more total deaths per 1 million population

Below are daily deaths.

Smaller countries such as Andora, the Isle of Man, Malta, the Channel Islands with high death counts per capita were not included.
See Latin America
Latin American

Click on the chart for an updated version.


On June 6 Brazil stoped reporting confirmed cases, saying the numbers were not accurate.


Asia:

On May 12, the Washington Post reported that Labanon, Iran, and Wuhan had reimposed lockdowns following and increase in infections. South Korea also tightened some restrictions that were removed.

More


May 24
Country South Korea 1 Japan 1 Taiwan 1 Hubei
Province
China 2
Population M 51 127 24 48
Cases 11,265 16,623 441 68135
Cases per
100,000
22 13 2 142
Deaths 269 846 7 4,512
Deaths/1M 5 7 0.29 94
deaths/case * 2.4% 5.1% 1.6% 6.6%

* Deaths per Case or the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is all over the place for a variety of reasons. See Case Fatality Rate
Italy, Spain, France and the UK all had over 10% deaths per case, probably because it hit so fast there they didn't have facilities to treat all the sick.

1.East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, experience with SARS has helped to keep well ahead of the infectious curve through a combination of early response, pervasive screening, contact tracing, comprehensive testing, and the adroit use of technology. Universal healthcare, clear management structures for the public health response.
Wired says, "These countries all have social structures and traditions that might make this kind of surveillance and control a little easier than in the don’t-tread-on-me United States"

2. Wuhan is in Hubei Province. Hubei Province accounts for 80% of the cases in China. China is not counting asymptomatic cases and some people think there are other discrepancies in their counting.


A maximum of .014% of South Koreas had active cases.
A maximum of .117% (70,000 out of 60,000,000) of Italians had active cases .

Hubei Province China, which includes Wuhan, has a population of 60 million and 67,803 thousand infected (0.1% of the population) (84% of China's total) .
Isolated by distance and a lack of transportation western China does not seem to be infected.
Hunan Province adjoining Hubei only had 1,018 infections.
Some people have questioned China's reporting.

More data below

Coronavirus patients in South Korea, Wuhan and some in Japan are now testing positive for the virus a second time with no symptoms. It's not clear whether these are false positives or dormant virus which may or may not be activated.

Note: The number of infectious people is higher because pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic (18%-40%) people,
A recent study found that nearly half of patients in Singapore and 62% of patients in Tianjin, China transmitted the virus when they were pre-symptomatic.

Note: US testing is behind other countries so it may be higher.
Leveling off may not last. With only 1 out of 1,000 having natural immunity from being infected there could be 2nd and 3rd waves. Epidemiologists are saying we may need 50-60% immunity from contracting the disease and/or a vaccine to achieve "herd immunity" and stop it from spreading without extraordinary efforts.


United States: July 15, 2020
Place Cases Cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per
1 million
United States 3,616,747 1,096 140,140 425
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center




State and City cases and deaths per capita
  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.

I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news. I'd be 12 times more likely to run into someone with coronavirus in the county I came from in New Jersey than in Yolo County, California where I live now.

States June 15
Source: United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer
11 with most deaths per capita
USA State Pop. M Total cases cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per million
New York 19.5 405,785 2,086 30,998 1,593
New Jersey 8.9 170,250 1,917 12,837 1,445
Connecticut 3.6 45,349 1,272 4,210 1,181
Massachusetts 6.9 105,885 1,524 7,665 1,103
Rhode Island 1.1 16,164 1,526 865 817
District Of Columbia 0.7 9,818 1,391 520 737
Illinois 12.7 133,639 1,055 6,398 505
Pennsylvania 12.8 84,083 657 6,347 496
Maryland 6.0 62,409 1,032 2,982 493
Delaware 1.0 10,403 1,068 424 435
Colorado 5.8 29,442 511 1,617 281
Minnesota 5.6 30,882 548 1,344 238
Washington 7.6 27,174 357 1,234 162
Nevada 3.1 11,658 378 467 152
Florida 21.5 80,109 373 2,996 139
California 39.5 159,041 403 5,205 132
Texas 29.0 95,793 330 2,062 71
Oregon 4.2 6,098 145 182 43
US Total 1,783,132 543 104,166 317 Studies of the viral genome have shown that whereas California had about eight initial introductions, mainly from Asia, dozens of people (up to 100) brought the virus into New York, mainly from Europe.
Source: Why are so many people dying of COVID-19 in New York City? | Live Science


Cities/Counties May 28
First 12 are cities with the most deaths per capita. Others are places of interest or places where my friends and family are located.
Location Popu-
lation
M
Cases Cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per
1 million
New York City 8.75 201,000 2,297 16,410 1,875
Gallup, N.M.1 0.07 2,348 3,248 104 1,439
Albany GA2 0.15 2,580 1,686 215 1,405
Detroit (Wayne Co) 1.75 20,059 1,146 2,410 1,377
Fairfield Co., CT 0.94 15,314 1,629 1,242 1,321
New Orleans parish 0.39 6,822 1,749 495 1,269
Trenton-Princeton, NJ 0.37 6,592 1,782 458 1,238
Somerset Co., NJ 0.34 4,002 1,177 411 1,209
Hartford, CT 1.20 9,234 770 1,425 1,188
New Haven, CT 0.86 10,578 1,233 957 1,115
Springfield, MA (Hampden Co.) 0.47 5,878 1,261 562 1,206
Boston (Suffolk Co). 0.80 17,698 2,212 852 1,065
Chicago (Cook Co) 5.15 63,690 1,237 2,889 561
Lehigh County PA 0.36 3,628 1,008 202 561
Denver, CO 0.73 6,287 888 358 492
Seattle (king Co.) 2.20 7,923 360 562 255
Los Angeles, Co. 10.10 43,052 426 2,042 202
Washoe County, NV 0.47 1,514 322 55 117
Wash DC 5.32 7,966 150 427 80
San Francisco 0.88 2,473 281 41 47
Sacramento 1.54 1,318 86 57 37
Wake County, NC 1.07 1,523 142 36 34
Sutter co., CA 0.11 40 36 2 18
Palo Alto, CA 0.07 78 117
Davis, CA 0.07 22 31
1. Many members of the Navajo Nation came out without masks when a curfew was lifted in Gallup, NJ causing the spread of the virus.
Half of the 200 people who died from COVID-19 as of May 10th in New Mexico were Native Americans, who make up 11% of the state’s population.

2. Two funerals in Albany GA likely sparked the spread of COVID-19, but how the disease got to Albany in the first place remains a mystery.

See Five Ways to Monitor the Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S. - The New York Times

The Sacramento Metropolitan Area had the lowest incidence of COVID-19 of the 53 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.


Reopening sees surge in cases:
\

New Cases per million - Average per Million per day June 22 - 29
State popu-
lation
New per M Total Cases/M
Arizona 7.3 438 10,577
Florida 21.5 307 6,814
Nevada 3.1 202 5,809
Texas 29.0 201 5,494
California 39.5 143 5,643
Illinois 12.7 71 11,325
New Jersey 8.9 64 19,860
New York 20.1 38 21,453
We see the states with the highest infection rate, NY and NJ are doing the best now.
July 4
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April July
New York 51 4
New Jersey 39 4
California 3 15
Florida 6 42


Trends
Data for New York and New Jersey with the highest rates and California, where I live now, with one of the lowest rates.
These 3 states account for 46% of all the cases in the country.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ June 15

New York

State Popu-
lation
M
Cases Cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per
Million
New York 20.1 405,785 2,086 30,998 1,593

70% are in New York City

New Jersey

June 15
State Popu-
lation
M
Cases Cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per
Million
New Jersey 8.9 170,250 1,917 12,837 1,445

George's Covid-19 NJ Dashboard



California

July 15, 2020

California sees an upsurge in cases. Starting June 18, Californians must wear face coverings in common and public indoor spaces and outdoors when distancing is not possible.

Popu-
lation
M
Cases Cases per
100,000
Deaths Deaths per
Million
39.9 355,285 899 7,361 186
Daily
New cases New Cases
/1M
New Deaths New deaths
/1M
7,927 201 95 2.40


July 4
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April July
New York 51 4
New Jersey 39 4
California 3 15
Florida 6 42

California Department of Public health: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Resilience Roadmap - Reopening Stages

COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
California | The COVID Tracking Project


California Timeline:
Mar 11 Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social distancing of 6 feet per person. Gatherings of individuals who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should be limited to no more than 10 people, while also following social distancing guidelines.

March 19 Stay at home order (Shelter in Place) All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands.
Essencial Services:

Essential state and local government functions Outdoor exercise is permitted with social distancing.

May 8 the stay home order was modified. In addition to essential activity, retail is allowed, along with the infrastructure to support it. California restaurants and shopping malls can soon reopen in counties that meet state standards for testing and success at reducing cases of the coronavirus,

May 26, 2020, Hair salons and barber shops will be allowed to reopen in 47 of the state's counties after being closed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

On June 12 most California Counties were allowed to move to Stage 3 with some indoor dining with table spacing, hotels, outdoor recreation and other facilities allowed to open.

Most Bay Area counties were still restricted.

Seven of the nine Bay Area counties have reported recent, significant upticks in cases, and the Bay Area as a whole recorded a nearly 40% jump in new cases
Source: Coronavirus cases on the rise across the Bay Area, especially in Alameda County - SFChronicle.com, May 26.

On June 18 as new cases in California continued to increase, the Governor announced masks were mandetory in high-risk settings where 6' separation could not be achieved.

On July 1 Governor Newsom announced 19 counties must close indoor restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms for at least three weeks. If possible, those businesses can operate outdoors. Bars and breweries, indoors and outdoors, have been ordered to close..
Contra Costa, Fresno, Glenn, Imperial, Kern, Kings, L.A., Merced, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Solano, Stanislaus, Tulare., and Ventura.

>July 8 The state is monitoring data for elevated disease transmission (case rates and positive test results), increased hospitalizations and limited hospital capacity (availability of ICU beds and ventilators). Any county not meeting threshold criteria in at least one category goes on the watch list.
Marin was on the list and decided to halt indoor dining for at least three weeks in response. Santa Clara was no longer on the list but the previous restrictions remain based on having been on the list for three or more consecutive days.


   

See new case trend by county at SF Chronicle

Note: Studies at the beginning of May by the The COVID Tracking Project and others show an infection rate an order of magnitude higher that that reported by the CDC.

County variance info - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
County Alameda Contra-
Costa
Marin San
Francisco
San
Mateo
Santa
Clara
Sonoma
Confirmed- Cases 4,373 1,983 714 2,952 2,594 3,230 758
Deaths 112 44 17 45 99 151 4
cases/100K 262 172 275 334 337 167 152
Deaths/100K 6.7 3.8 6.5 5.1 12.9 7.8 0.8
Deaths/Case 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 1.5% 3.8% 4.7% 0.5%
Population 1,666,753 1,150,215 259,666 883,305 769,545 1937570 499,942
Pop./sq mi 1,899 1,345 310 3,575 999 1,412 278
Trend
Stage* L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 3
* Stage: L2 - Limited Stage 2
A2 - Advanced Stage 2
See stages below

See California’s reopening: See what’s open and what’s still shut down by county SF Chronicle May 29

County Napa Sacra-
mento
Sierra Solano Yuba-
Sutter
Yolo
Confirmed- Cases 190 1,794 1 685 121 253
Deaths 3 63 0 23 3 24
cases/100K 136 116 33 153 69 115
Deaths/100K 2.2 4.1 0.0 5.1 1.7 10.9
Deaths/Case 1.6% 3.5% 3.4% 2.5% 9.5%
Population 139,417 1,540,975 2,987 446,610 174848 220,408
Trend
Stage* 3 3 3 3 3 3
*A2 - Advanced Stage 2
Source: County variance info - COVID-19 Response ca.gov

The variation of deaths per case is influenced by a number of factors such as inaccurate case counts and vulnerability, age distribution, overall health -- e.g. percent of the population with high blood pressure, etc.
See real case numbers below and Case Fatality Rate (CFR)..

I included population density thinking there would be a correlation with infection rate. It was weak, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Marin were outliers with much higher infection rates than population density would predict. I needed to include other factors like average age to zero in on density.
There was a correlation nationwide.

Counties bordering Lake Tahoe June 17

County Placer El Dorado Washoe
Confirmed- Cases 390 117 2,023
Deaths 9 0 71
cases/100K 98 61 429
Deaths/100K 2.3 0.0 15.1
Deaths/Case 2.3% 0.0% 3.5%
Population 398,329 192,843 471,519
Trend
80% of Placer Co. cases are in Roseville, Rocklin, Auburn and Lincoln
48% of El Dorado Co. cases are in the Tahoe Region and 23% in El Dorado Hills
Healthcare centers and Reno and Sparks have accounted for a lot of Washoe Counties Cases.

Tahoe Regions Trend
Location Population Date
06-17
Cases Cases/
100 K
Kings Beach 5,164 24 465
Carnelian Bay 1,170 <6 <513
Tahoe City 5,120 <6 <117
Tahoma and S. Tahoe 23,073 56 243
Incline Village 8,777 <25 <285
Crystal Bay 305 <25

Tahoe's year-round resident population is 44,000. Total population can reach 3-400,000 on peak days like the 4th of July.


Stages:
Limited or Early Stage 2:
WHAT IS OPEN
Curbside retail and dining pickups or deliveries • individual counties may approve in-store shopping • some manufacturing • child care for those outside the essential workforce • office-based business though telework is still encouraged • services like car washes, pet grooming and landscaping • outdoor public spaces like museums and galleries • places of worship with attendance limited to 25% of building capacity up to 100 people, pending approval from individual counties.

WHAT IS OPEN, WITH MODIFICATIONS
Indoor gatherings, including retail and eat-in dining in some counties • personal services such as nail salons, tattoo parlors, gyms and fitness studios • many state parks • schools.

Advanced Stage 2:
WHAT EXTRA IS OPEN, WITH COUNTY-SPECIFIC MODIFICATIONS

Dine-in restaurants and other facilities offering food service with social distancing • barbershops and hair salons with safety measures • schools.

See California Reopening Stages corona.ca
and California’s reopening: See what’s open and what’s still shut down by county SF Chronicle June 1


Yolo Co. June 16:
Confirmed
Cases
Hospatilized Cases
/100K
Hospaatilized
/100K
Population
Davis 32 4 45 5.7 70,560
Woodland 149 14 250 23.5 59,535
Winters & Unincorporated 30 5 85 14.2 35,280
West Sacramento 91 26 165 47.2 55,125
Cases Deaths Cases/100K Deaths/1M
Yolo County 302 24 137 109 220,500
California 159,041 5,205 403 132 39,510,000
United States 2,182,525 118,279 665 360 328,200,000

Davis Cases Confirmed by Date as of June 15

Davis Senior Hours


Placer County:
June 15
Confirmed
Cases
Cases
/100K
Population
Placer County 390 98 398,329
as of June 15 - 390 total cases. 80% are in Roseville, Rocklin, Auburn and Lincoln including surrounding area.

Can I Reopen? | Placer County, CA
Business Resource Center: brcinfo@placer.ca.gov


Santa Clara County July 8

Palo Alto
Note: Data was not available for some zip codes
Zip Population Cases Cases/
100,000
94301 17,191 41 238
94302 PO Box
94303 45,467 na
94304 3,902 18 461
94305 13,862 na
94306 27,549 32 116
All 107,971 112 104
94304 is where Stanford Hospital is.

Place Population Cases Cases/
100,000
Santa Clara Co 1,937,570 5,552 287
California 39,510,000 296,075 749
U. S. 330,000,000 3,193,554 968

Santa Clara County California, the heart of Silicon Valley, had the highest rate in the state at the end of March. Many believe the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, with 182,000 attendees, in January 2020, which had many people from Wuhan, may have been the incubator for the virus in Silicon Valley.


What is the real number of infected people?

Everyone agrees the total number is much higher than what is reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people. Results of random testing vary all over the place.


Important References

Terms:
The virus: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, 2019-nCoV)
The disease: Novel coronavirus (Covid-19)
See more at the facts page.

Epidemic - A quick rise in the number of cases of a disease beyond what is normally expected in a geographical area.
Pandemic - A disease that has spread across many countries and affects a large number of people.
Endemic - An infection which is constantly maintained at a baseline level in a geographic area without external inputs. For example, chickenpox is endemic (steady state) in the UK, but malaria is not.


How the rankings changed based on deaths vs confirmed cases.
The confirmed cases are far lower than the actual number of people with the coronavirus, as not everyone exhibits symptoms or seeks medical attention and testing varies by location.

My son pointed out that confirmed deaths are a more reliable metric, existing systems for reporting deaths already exist, while testing for cases is still evolving.

June 15
County Confirmed-
Cases
Deaths cases/
100K
Deaths/
100K
Case
rank
Death
rank
Deaths/
Case
SanMateo 1,197 51 162 6.9 2 1 4.3%
SantaClara 2,179 115 118 6.2 3 2 5.3%
Marin 239 13 93 5.1 5 3 5.4%
Alameda 1636 63 105 4.0 4 4 3.9%
SanFrancisco 1,523 29 172 3.3 1 5 1.9%
Yolo 171 7 78 3.2 7 6 4.1%
Sacra-mento 1,117 42 77 2.9 8 7 3.8%
ContraCosta 907 28 84 2.6 6 8 3.1%
Placer 159 8 44 2.2 12 9 5.0%
Yuba-Sutter 50 3 30 1.8 13 10 6.0%
Napa 68 2 49 1.4 11 11 2.9%
Solano 266 5 63 1.2 9 12 1.9%
Sonoma 248 3 50 0.6 10 13 1.2%
Sierra 0* 0 0 0.0 14 14

See Deaths per case is a poor measure of the mortality risk.
and real case numbers below


See also : Coronavirus Trajectories - Research and Statistics - Our World in Data
Coronavirus in the U.S.: How Fast It's Growing - The New York Times


Coronavirus has come to Trump country - The Washington Post
More Information:
Coronavirus has come to Trump country - The Washington Post June 17

More Links:
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 94 | Bob Wachter twitter
The Virus: What Went Wrong? | Watch S2020 E1 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site
COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation | Christopher J.L. Murray, MD, DPHIL April 29
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Our World in Data

How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic March 25
Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide | Serious Eats
How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic, Mar 25
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Severity Spectrum - Age - Incubation period - ... | UpToDate
Chart: Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US are in line with Italy and Iran - Vox
Personal Protection Equipment (PPE)
Scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the Coronavirus.
Coronavirus FAQ’s by Dr. Megan Murray (Harvard Infectious Disease specialist) | Abundance Foundation
  Coronavirus Scams: | FTC Consumer Information
  Google search for other coronavirus scam warnings