Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Corona Facts | Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Terms Glossary | Vaccines | Vaccination | Forcasting
last updated 2 December 2022

I started this page when the media was reporting the total number of new cases. 1,000 new cases in California is not as significant as 1,000 new cases in Nevada.
I wanted to know the probability of running into someone with COVID in the grocery store, so started listing cases per 100,000 and deaths which at the beginning were more accurate than new cases.
Most media are reporting this now, but this page has evolved.
There is more detailed information about the US and North Central California where most of my friends and family live.
Contents:
Major News
Executive Summary
I've made copies of of all the charts I update regularly here. They may also appear in detail sections.
I divided it into three sections:
Overview by phases (Variants)
Trends (new cases per day)
The bottom line (cumulative deaths per capita)
Objective
The Numbers:
World: Summary | Detail | India | Latin America | Asia | .Africa | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States:: Summary | Detail | Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California: Summary | Detail | CA Current notes: | Tiers: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical)
| North Central California Counties | Holiday surge | Davis | Yolo County | Santa Clara County | 1918 Flu

Sources


News See older news below:

Executive Summary

These are charts I update more frequently, weekly or monthly. You can click on most charts at this site to go to the current version at the source. Sometimes you may have to scroll down to find a specific chart.

Some charts here are only updated every several weeks,
but you can click on the chart to get the current version.

Variants Dates Peak daily infection rate
per 100,000/
Daily Deaths per 1M
N. America Europe S. America USA
Alpha March 2020 - July 2021 47/8 39/7 33/11 76/11
Delta July 2021 - Nov. 2021 33/5 50/5 18/5 50/6
Omicron * December 2021 - 150/5 207/4 89/4 241/8
Cumulative to Sept 17, 2022
% Infected 19.0% 30.2% 14.7% 28.4%
Deaths per Million 2,526 2,585 3,058 3,126
Daily Death Rate per million Sept 15, 2022
Daily Deaths per Million 0.88 0.75 0.25 1.27
- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.
* The Omicron peak was on or before Jan 31 for the above.
Omicron infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants.
The death rates were slightly lower even though the infection rates 4 or more times higher, so the death per infection were about ¼ the rate of previous variants.
The US death rate was about twice that of other regions because fewer people got vaccinated. By August of 2021 about 55% of Americans had at least 1 dose while 70% of Canadians and people in the UK were vaccinated. That resulted in around 1,500 unnecessary US deaths per day. In May 2022 the cumulative US death toll hit 1 million.

Number's are 7-day averages.
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
See Our World in Data for current rates.
The numbers are significantly undercounted. The latest WHO report in May 2022 says there have been around 15 million cumulative cases way more that the 6 million reported.
See Data Accuracy

Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths.
Oceana has one of the highest infection rates as of January 2022, because of an outbreak in Australia, but over the course of the virus they have the lowest total death rate, 148 per million, of any continent.

There are multiple sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence.
From Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences July 2021

See Actual Deaths below.

Major trends

World | United States: | California | North Central California

World
Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:
Click on the charts to get the current version from the source.
 

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.

- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )


Omicron Spread:

I started this chart as the Omicron surge was growing to show how countries were following a similar pattern.
I kept it because they were generally indicative of Europe and North America.
I added New Zealand and Taiwan because they were traditionally the lowest rates in the world and were having a surge in March and May after the world Omicron variant surge in January.
New Zealand, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan which had been doing much better with cumulative death rates of less than 600 per million while Europe and North America were 4 times higher around 2,500 deaths per million.
Omicron infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants. My theory is that the western countries have gotten close the herd immunity (A CDC report ) which kept their new infection rates down.
In October Europe seemed to be starting another surge. The US had traditionally lagged them by a couple of weeks, so we'll have to see what happens.


Click on the map below to go the source where you can click on individual countries for their rates.

United States:

2022 New Cases per 100,000 <
Jan
10
Mar
20
Apr
7
Apr
23
May
9
May
20
Jun
2
Jun
17
July
1
jul
18
Aug
18
Oct
1
Oct
19
Nov
9
Northeast 302 9 14 24 36 49 33 25 26 31 24 20 18 17
Midwest 185 6 6 13 23 30 26 24 25 29 28 14 12 15
West 215 11 9 12 19 32 36 40 43 45 25 12 10 10
South 203 9 7 9 13 22 26 31 37 42 33 12 8 9
zzz

Variants
New variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BA.4.6 now account for 37% of new cases in the U.S. BA.5 is still the most prominent variant.


Source: Variant Proportions - Nowcast CDC

October 29
BQ.1 BQ.1.1 BA.4.6 Total
US 14.0% 13.1% 9.6% 36.7%
NE 13.6% 6.4% 10.2% 30.2%
NY, NJ 23.5% 19.0% 8.4% 50.9%
Mid East 10.2% 16.6% 11.4% 38.2%
SE 10.2% 11.4% 13.6% 35.2%
midwest 10.3% 13.1% 8.3% 31.7%
South 17.5% 10.0% 7.5% 35.0%
SW 12.6% 12.0% 4.3% 28.9%

See Variants in Corona Facts here


California


Summary
Some charts here are only updated every several weeks,
but you can click on the chart to get the current version.


North Central California where most of my friends and family are located.


North Central California Counties:
Average new cases per day per 100,000 .
June 2021 -
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3  11/1 1/72/12/253/124/25/65/278/189/2910/2111/11
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 20 195 126 22 10 7 21 33 29 141112
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 15 166 148 26 11 6 19 39 29 12810
San Francisco 22 7 167 87 32 8 14 42 59 22 10816
San Mateo 1.3 6.4 21 23 8 174 109 23 13 11 37 61 23 111014
Santa Clara 1.3 5.1 18 25 8 163 133 22 10 11 33 59 26 9910
Alameda 119 18 10 9 26 50 19 9710
Contra-Costa 25 50 27 9109
Sierra 0 16 3 0 5 14 10 002
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 8 149 117 28 19 6 23 37 24 972
Marin 31 60 18 996
Sanoma 182 139 26 17 8 29 46 19 975
Yolo 1.8 6.3 33 44 18 159 102 19 11 11 20 43 26 10913
Solano 1.3 10 27 66 11 120 122 49 13 6 20 50 22 101010
Sacramento 0.3 11.7 39 73 14 117 121 25 10 7 15 38 24 978
Placer 1.3 8.3 37 77 24 91 109 24 8 4 12 34 19 766
Sutter 13.4 60 72 22 99 110 26 22 8 11 29 30 11510
El Dorado 11 30 16 6513
Davis 18 4 212† 41 10 6 4
† Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow. But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate. I attribute that to 30,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back.

The Bay Area in California which has had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind Northern California and in the Fall of 2022 it had the highest rate. See Bay Area vs other CA regions.
My theory is that as of August 2022 the Bay area has had the lowest death rate, less than half the other regions, so the population does not have a built up immunity from prior infections.


I don't know why the New York Times numbers are always higher than the CA Department of Public Health numbers (see Yolo and San Mateo below).

Counties where I and my family live:

Updated on Thursdays:




Davis:

Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Healthy Davis Together Historic Wastewater Testing


In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.

This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.

Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.

Note: Wastewater results tend to be more variable than reported cases. See the national wastewater results above.

See Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford for other Bay Area wastewater results. More N. Central California data


The Bottom Line - Cumulative Death Rates

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

These stats are not updated as frequently. Death rates are low compared to the first 2 years, so the the curve has flattened out.


1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.

Cumulative Deaths per Million September 24, 2022 - Selected Countries
Peru 6368
Hungary 4940
USA 3229
Brazil 3176
Poland 3111
Italy 2935
Belgium 2790
UK 2765
Colombia 2722
Russia * 2648
Europe 2605
Ukraine 2525
Mexico * 2501
Spain 2436
France 2361
Sweden 1968
Germany 1771
Costa Rica 1715
South Africa 1676
Switzerland 1612
Ireland 1558
Israel 1253
Canada 1169
Cuba 754
New Zealand 582
Philippines 556
S. Korea 550
Australia 550
Taiwan 453
India * 375
Japan 353
China 4
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
Source: Worldmeter

* Deaths are significantly undercounted. See Data Accuracy
Mexico and Russia were significantly undercounted in a May 2021 U. Washington Study below.
If you account for that, Russia would have 8,400 deaths per million, Mexico would have 4,700 deaths per million and India would have 3,600 deaths per million per a July 2021 Wall Street Journal report.
China could be up to 130
Deaths in other countries could be up to 40% higher.


The US is leading developed countries with the death rate for Omicron:

Unvaccinated are 14 Times More Likely to Die From COVID | WebMD

US States:

Total Deaths per 1 Million Sept 25
1 Mississippi 4327
2 Arizona 4304
3 Alabama 4161
4 West Virginia 4119
5 New Mexico 4079
6 Tennessee 4057
7 Arkansas 4003
8 New Jersey 3908
9 Louisiana 3874
10 Michigan 3851
11 Kentucky 3798
12 Georgia 3783
13 Florida 3781
14 Oklahoma 3737
15 Nevada 3725
16 New York 3704
17 Pennsylvania 3679
18 Indiana 3664
19 South Carolina 3560
20 Missouri 3483
21 Rhode Island 3447
22 South Dakota 3410
23 Ohio 3402
24 Montana 3292
USA Total 3269
25 Wyoming 3267
26 Iowa 3186
27 Delaware 3185
28 Connecticut 3182
29 Texas 3144
30 Massachusetts 3141
31 Illinois 3127
32 Kansas 3116
33 North Dakota 3102
34 Idaho 2891
35 Wisconsin 2614
36 Virginia 2550
37 Maryland 2541
38 North Carolina 2523
39 California 2429
40 Colorado 2428
41 Minnesota 2414
42 Nebraska 2330
43 Oregon 2020
44 New Hampshire 1980
45 District Of Columbia 1960
46 Maine 1914
47 Washington 1874
48 Alaska 1817
49 Utah 1563
50 Hawaii 1186
51 Vermont 1152
52 Puerto Rico 1511
California:


Cumulative Deaths:

California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K
Bay Area
median 104
Monterey 171
Santa Clara 119
Alameda 113
Contra Costa 113
Marin 113
Napa 104
Solano 101
Sonoma 99
San Francisco 98
San Mateo 98
Santa Cruz 96
Greater Sac
median 149
Sutter 240
Amador 216
Sacramento 203
Butte 192
Placer 158
Yuba 155
Yolo 143
Sierra 133
Nevada 127
El Dorado 109
Plumas 69
Colusa 97
Alpine
N. California
median 213
Shasta 357
Tehama 309
Siskiyou 241
Glenn 236
Lassen 226
Lake 213
Del Norte 180
Trinity 163
Mendocino 143
Humboldt 108
Modoc 90
S. California
median 221
Imperial 505
San Bernardino 335
Los Angeles 319
Inyo 310
Riverside 264
Orange 221
Ventura 176
San Luis Obispo 168
San Diego 157
Santa Barbara 155
Mono 42
San Joaquin
median 284
Tuolumne 332
Tulare 315
Stanislaus 308
Merced 296
Kings 292
San Joaquin 292
Fresno 276
Kern 266
Calaveras 261
Madera 232
Mariposa 198
San Benito 156
Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

End of Executive Overview


World Summary:

Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.

- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )

All Countries: Total cases per day


Regional Stats and some countries of interest.
Jan 14

Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
Total Total % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
Europe 748 102,488,473 1,568,273 13.7% 150 2,097
UK 68 15,066,395 151,612 22.2% 183 2,230
Germany 84 7,885,229 116,098 9.4% 76 1,382
France 65 13,569,675 126,721 20.8% 421 1,941
Italy 60 8,356,514 140,548 13.8% 279 2,327
Russia ‡ 146 10,747,125 319,911 7.4% 125 2,191
Ireland 5 1,078,181 6,035 21.5% 423 1,202
Israel 9 1,718,989 8,298 18.5% 393 892
S. America 435 42,651,273 1,197,438 9.8% 61 2,753
Brazil 214 22,927,203 620,847 10.7% 32 2,901
Columbia 52 5,475,904 130,731 10.5% 57 2,514
N America* 595 77,705,633 1,273,825 13.1% 148 2,141
United States 334 66,209,535 872,086 19.8% 236 2,611
Mexico 131 4,302,069 301,107 3.3% 22 2,302
Canada 38 2,717,982 31,317 7.1% 97 820
Asia 4,461 89,335,098 1,269,492 2.0% 9 285
China 1,439 104,745 4,636 0.01% 0 3
India † 1,391 36,850,962 485,780 2.6% 12 349
S. Korea 51 687,984 6,281 1.3% 7 123
Taiwan 24 17,692 851 0.1% 0.3 35
Africa 1,341 10,425,479 233,744 0.8% 3 174
South Africa 60 3,552,043 93,117 5.9% 11 1,552
Botswana 2 237,678 2,514 9.8% 47 1,039
Oceana 42 1,803,984 4,921 4.3% 250 117
Australia 26 1,632,958 2,627 6.3% 423 101
New Zealand 5 15,001 52 0.3% 1 10
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
* Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland are considered part of North America.


Number of deaths are significantly undercounted.
    Estimated % counted
United States 63% 
Mexico        35%
W. Europe     70-80%
Russia        18%

See estimated actual death counts at U. Washington Study below.
The major countries (population > 10 million) with the highest death rate are.

Peru    6,002  Bulgaria 4,331  Hungary 3,868  
Czechia 3,242  Romania  3,041  Brazil  2,874

‡ If you adjust for the undercounting in Mexico and Russia their rates would be:
Mexico 4,862 deaths per million
Russia 8,358 deaths per million

Regional Death Rates: S. America 2,732; N. America 1,999; Europe 1,968
Asia, Africa and Oceana all have less than 300 deaths per million.
New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all had less than 100 deaths per million.

A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.


Because Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths we don’t compute a world rate. There are smaller countries in Asia and Africa who's infection and death rates are similar to other developed countries.

See World Countries Cumulative Cases and Deaths below
See US States Cumulative Deaths below


Vaccination Rate:

Data Accuracy

The most complete study to date was released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 5th 2022
14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
They measured the increase in the death toll, which was COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society). e.g. lack of access to ERs and intensive care.

Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

It shows that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.
Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society).
Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The production of these estimates is a result of a global collaboration supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and country consultations. with over 30 researchers from around the world.

See more from the WHO.

Previous Studies:

Almost 60% of U.S. Has Been Infected by COVID-19, CDC Says;
Researchers looked at the presence of coronavirus antibodies to estimate the rate of infection.
During September 2021–February 2022, a convenience sample of blood specimens submitted for clinical testing was analyzed every 4 weeks for anti-N antibodies. the median sample size per 4-week period was 73,869 .
It indicated 57.7% of Americans had been infected.
Official infections reported were 80.5 Million or 24% of the population, i.e. only 42% of infections were reported.
See WebMD
The report was published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, April 29, 2022

Davis, CA Wastewater testing indicates that in June 2022 only 20% of cases were reported compared to January 2022. See

"COVID’s true death toll: much higher than official records" | Nature March 10, 2022 compares data at the end of 2021 from The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist Jan 31, 2022 and The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist May 2022

OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS PER 100,000 ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS PER 100,000 ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
Asia 1,431,831 30.6 6.4m to 15m 140 to 330 +700%
Europe (incl. EU) 1,828,826 244.2 3.1m to 3.3m 410 to 430 +70%
Africa 253,293 18.4 1.1m to 3.3m 79 to 240 +1,000%
Latin America and Caribbean 1,694,146 257.2 2.4m to 2.7m 370 to 410 +50%
European Union 1,083,086 242.2 1.2m to 1.4m 280 to 300 +20%
North America 1,039,020 280.1 1.2m to 1.4m 320 to 370 +20%
Oceania 11,225 26.0 −1.9k to 30k −4.5 to 70 −50%
By Country: (Examples)
OFFICIAL
COVID-19 DEATHS
PER 100,000 ESTIMATED
EXCESS DEATHS
PER 100,000 ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
India 524,181 37.6 2.2m to 9.7m 160 to 700 +1,000%
Russia 369,644 253.3 1.2m to 1.3m 820 to 890 +200%
United States 998,997 300.1 1.2m to 1.3m 350 to 400 +20%
Pakistan 30,375 13.5 390k to 1.1m 170 to 500 +2,700%
Indonesia 156,396 56.6 360k to 1.1m 130 to 410 +400%
Brazil 664,750 310.6 770k to 820k 360 to 380 +20%
Mexico 324,465249.1 670k to 760k 520 to 580 +100%
Bangladesh 29,127 17.5 260k to 760k 160 to 460 +1,800%
China 5,203 0.4 −330k to 1.9m −23 to 130 +8,500%
Poland 116,164 307.3 180k to 190k 480 to 500 +60%
Turkey 98,870 116.3 180k to 490k 210 to 580 +300%
Britain 177,088 259.6 140k to 160k 210 to 230 −20%
Germany 137,184 163.5 110k to 130k 130 to 160 −10%
Italy 164,846 273.1 200k to 230k 320 to 380 +30%
Peru 212,968 638.4 220k to 220k 660 to 670 +4%

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),
reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths. Around the World they are half the actual rate.

Some examples Estimated % counted. See below.
United States 63%
Mexico 35%
W. Europe 70-80%
Russia 18%

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
-Countries with the highest actual (estimated) death rates, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
1 United States 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed in the IHME report.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.

A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

"Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic a study by Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics published in the Lancet March 10, 2022 . They found,
"Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5.94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18.2 million (95% uncertainty interval) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120.3 deaths per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4.07 million), the USA (1.13 million ), Russia (1.07 million ), Mexico (798), Brazil (792 000), Indonesia 736,000 , and Pakistan 664,000"

At Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis - The Lancet, Published in April 2022,
They looked at global data from the start of the Pandemic to November 2021 with information from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and others, they estimate that over 40% of the global population was infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021.

Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation", April 2022,
"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported."


See Modern East Asian DNA hints at an ancient coronavirus outbreak | Science News

More World Data


United States:
Worldmeter chart


CDC Map

January 23, 2022
US States where I have friends and family.
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths %
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New Total New % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 333 70,206,220 579,433 862,494 1870 21.1% 174 2,590 5.6 64%
New Jersey 8.9 2,067,692 10,455 30,759 96 23.2% 117 3,456 10.8 72%
New York 19.5 4,832,399 27,804 63,824 230 24.8% 143 3,273 11.8 74%
Massachusetts 6.9 1,536,256 11,354 21,402 51 22.3% 165 3,102 7.4 76%
Pennsylvania 12.8 2,572,500 16,254 39,538 131 20.1% 127 3,089 10.2 65%
Illinois 12.7 2,773,362 18,640 33,446 101 21.8% 147 2,634 8.0 66%
Florida 21.5 5,351,391 30,795 63,576 8 24.9% 143 2,957 0.4 65%
California 39.5 7,450,319 85,930 78,870 107 18.9% 218 1,997 2.7 68%
Nevada 3.1 614,505 4,268 8,736 4 19.8% 138 2,818 1.3 58%
Arizona 7.3 1,752,552 20,397 25,623 59 24.0% 279 3,510 8.1 58%
See State Death Rates
See US Epicenters
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021


More United States Data
California:


California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K
Bay Area
median 104
Monterey 171
Santa Clara 119
Alameda 113
Contra Costa 113
Marin 113
Napa 104
Solano 101
Sonoma 99
San Francisco 98
San Mateo 98
Santa Cruz 96
Greater Sac
median 149
Sutter 240
Amador 216
Sacramento 203
Butte 192
Placer 158
Yuba 155
Yolo 143
Sierra 133
Nevada 127
El Dorado 109
Plumas 69
Colusa 97
Alpine
N. California
median 213
Shasta 357
Tehama 309
Siskiyou 241
Glenn 236
Lassen 226
Lake 213
Del Norte 180
Trinity 163
Mendocino 143
Humboldt 108
Modoc 90
S. California
median 221
Imperial 505
San Bernardino 335
Los Angeles 319
Inyo 310
Riverside 264
Orange 221
Ventura 176
San Luis Obispo 168
San Diego 157
Santa Barbara 155
Mono 42
San Joaquin
median 284
Tuolumne 332
Tulare 315
Stanislaus 308
Merced 296
Kings 292
San Joaquin 292
Fresno 276
Kern 266
Calaveras 261
Madera 232
Mariposa 198
San Benito 156
Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

North Central California Counties

North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.
Cumulative to Sept 24, 2022
Deaths per
100,000
Cases per
100,000
Vaccinated
United States 317 28,875 68%
California 243 28,423 74%
Bay area
Santa Clara › 129 23,242 88%
Contra Costa › 123 23,277 83%
Alameda › 121 21,838 84%
Marin › 120 19,360 91%
San Francisco › 117 21,428 86%
Napa › 116 24,330 80%
San Mateo › 108 23,177 86%
Sonoma › 105 22,578 80%
Solano › 103 25,040 70%
Greater Sacramento
Sutter › 242 27,498 62%
Sacramento › 222 24,371 69%
Placer › 166 21,275 69%
Sierra › 166 12,080
Yolo › 152 23,362 72%
El Dorado › 120 18,875 64%

The 10 counties who voted for Biden in 2020 averaged a total of 1,203 deaths per million over the course of the virus as of March 12, 2022 compared to the 2 counties who voted for Trump which average averaged 1,870 deaths per million (55% higher).

* Sierra County had only 12 new cases from Feb 15, 2021 to July 4, 2021 with a 7 day average of close to 0.
At the beginning of july, the beginning of September and middle of October they had an outbreak raising the 7-day average to 3 cases per day making the rate per 100,000 100 cases per day.
With a population of just over 3,000 a small outbreak results in a high rate (new cases per 100,000)
But their cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is the lowest of all counties represented here.

New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.


More California Data
End of Summary
Related Notes::Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Good Twitter feeds

World Stats:


Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.


Click on Charts to go to the current version.
You can mouse over charts there to get more information.

Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.


NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC

Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.

% Vaccinated:

Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

Those who are vaccinated are about six times less likely to contract the virus and 14 times less likely to die from it.

COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.

Deaths:

New Cases driven by largest countries.

Spikes in Daily Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn

Cumulative Deaths World

Note: A report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief economic advisor, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University said the actual number of deaths in India was likely between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. This is 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported, so would put India at the top of the list of death rates.

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.

World Total Deaths:

* A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths instead of the 460,000 reported, increasing the world total to 8 Million.
See India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions WSJ

Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.


Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a
May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Actual
Deaths
per M
Death
Rate
Rank*
Pop M
1 United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722 9 333
2 India 654,395 221,181 34% 470 2 1391
3 Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746 19 130
4 Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787 10 214
5 Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066 17 146
6 United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075 12 68
7 Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912 11 60
8 Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051 6 85
9 Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635 4 104
10 South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676 8 60
11 Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963 15 38
12 Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547 18 33
13 Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184 13 44
14 France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029 5 65
15 Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647 7 47
16 Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437 3 84
17 Indonesia 118,796 47,150 40% 438 1 271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate.
Here are some with the highest death rates.
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910 14 11
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970 16 10
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600 20 7
* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed here.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.

23 Countries of Interest - Infection Rates

See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

Countries with the highest peak infection rates out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M),
Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.
Country Date New Cases
North America Jan 12, 2021 470
Europe Nov 2, 2020 370
South America June 3, 2021 334
Asia May 5, 2021 107
Africa Jan 11,2021 24
Belgium Oct 30, 2020 1,536
Ireland Jan 10, 2021 1,323
Portugal Jan 28, 2021 1,264
Israel Sept 14, 2021 1,254
Czechia 10/27/20 1,200
Hungary 03/26/21 960
Botswana 08/07/21 946
United Kingdom Jan 10, 2021 881
France Nov 3, 2020 832
Austria 11/14/20 806
Spain Jan 26, 2021 791
United States Jan 11, 2021 757
Argentina june 1, 2021 728
Turkey Apr 21, 2021 714
Nambia 06/30/21 695
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
Italy Nov 13, 2020 578
Columbia June 6, 2021 527
Sweden May 4, 2021 500
Costa Rica May 18, 2021 483
South Africa Jan 11, 2021 321
Germany Dec 22, 2020 306
Peru 04/13/21 297
India May 6, 2021 282
Canada Apr 16, 2021 232
Russia May 13, 2021 193
Mexico Dec 24, 2020 81

Total:

Note: There are small countries (< 5 Million population) with more cases and deaths per million.
See Worldmeter and click on headings to sort.

Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported.


According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers. Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, xgxg020 to May 2021
Country Estimated
Actual
Total
Reported
Total
Reported
% of Actual
Deaths
per M
Bulgaria 38,640 16,905 44% 5,600
Mexico 617,127 217,694 35% 4,746
Peru 147,765 62,739 42% 4,547
Russian Federation 593,610 109,334 18% 4,066
Hungary 38,787 28,919 75% 3,970
Poland 149,855 68,237 46% 3,963
Czechia 41,446 29,574 71% 3,910
Ukraine 138,507 46,737 34% 3,184
United Kingdom 209,661 150,519 72% 3,075
Italy 175,832 121,257 69% 2,912
Brazil 595,903 408,680 69% 2,787
United States of America 905,289 574,043 63% 2,722
South Africa 160,452 54,390 34% 2,676
Spain 123,786 85,365 69% 2,647
Iran 174,177 72,906 42% 2,051
France 132,680 105,506 80% 2,029
Egypt 170,041 13,529 8% 1,635
Germany 120,729 83,256 69% 1,437
India 654,395 221,181 34% 470
See more about excessive deaths above.

Omicron Spread

Source: What omicron's fast spread could mean | NPR Dec 10

Source: Worldmeter

Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand


See More International Stats


United States:

United States:

See Historical data on the Californa Section.

See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker

COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death

See 1918 Flu

"

Total Deaths per 1 Million Sept 25
1 Mississippi 4327
2 Arizona 4304
3 Alabama 4161
4 West Virginia 4119
5 New Mexico 4079
6 Tennessee 4057
7 Arkansas 4003
8 New Jersey 3908
9 Louisiana 3874
10 Michigan 3851
11 Kentucky 3798
12 Georgia 3783
13 Florida 3781
14 Oklahoma 3737
15 Nevada 3725
16 New York 3704
17 Pennsylvania 3679
18 Indiana 3664
19 South Carolina 3560
20 Missouri 3483
21 Rhode Island 3447
22 South Dakota 3410
23 Ohio 3402
24 Montana 3292
USA Total 3269
25 Wyoming 3267
26 Iowa 3186
27 Delaware 3185
28 Connecticut 3182
29 Texas 3144
30 Massachusetts 3141
31 Illinois 3127
32 Kansas 3116
33 North Dakota 3102
34 Idaho 2891
35 Wisconsin 2614
36 Virginia 2550
37 Maryland 2541
38 North Carolina 2523
39 California 2429
40 Colorado 2428
41 Minnesota 2414
42 Nebraska 2330
43 Oregon 2020
44 New Hampshire 1980
45 District Of Columbia 1960
46 Maine 1914
47 Washington 1874
48 Alaska 1817
49 Utah 1563
50 Hawaii 1186
51 Vermont 1152
52 Puerto Rico 1511
Note: 1,000 deaths per 1 Million is 0.1%
Source: Worldmeter



See Positivity Rate.
The epicenters keeps changing:
The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29 Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.
In July 2020 because of their new case rates and population, Florida, Texas and California accounted for 19% of all new cases in the world and more than a third of the new cases in the U.S. with a total of 27,574 new cases per day recorded.
Case rates in those states droped by 2/3 in September.
in January 2021 the U.S. accounted for 34% of all new cases in the world.
In April 2021 the world hit a record of 823,439 new cases, 41% from India.
See World leaders.

chart

States with rates 50% higher than the national average are in bold.
In January there were only a couple of outliers so we bolded the top 10.
State Daily New Cases per 100,000
Spring
2020
Peak
Jul 15 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 2 Dec 2 Jan 4
2021
Feb 3 Mar 3 Apr 7 Jun 6 Jul 17 Aug 14 Sep 9 Oct 5 Nov 12 Dec 20 Jan 14
2022
Feb 12Apr 8
US 10 20 10 15 24 50 66 45 19 19 4 9 39 44 30 23 47 243 71 9
New York 51 4 6 7 10 37 71 53 32 34 3 3 21 27 29 35 80 324 41 21
New Jersey 39 4 6 8 18 46 49 51 34 47 3 4 19 22 20 15 74 289 34 18
Michigan 16 6 11 35 72 27 17 14 70 4 2 14 23 40 37 63 183 53 7
Pennsylvania 13 18 53 56 42 20 33 4 2 16 28 37 37 57 219 44 6
California 3 20 11 8 10 37 96 42 11 7 2 6 31 16 10 16 19 300 88 8
Florida 6 56 13 12 20 39 62 46 25 24 9 30 101 66 19 7 40 286 88 8
Arizona 4 51 8 9 19 62 112 64 16 9 5 12 38 38 38 47 40 232 97 10
Texas 3 37 13 13 20 38 63 70 25 10 4 9 50 62 27 10 23 214 76 9
Idaho 37 16 28 45 70 50 55 84 28 18 101 138 3
North Dakota 13 38 60 139 89 26 24 55 81 64 41 217 121 5
South Dakota 27 55 134 100 48 43 42 36 39 222
Wisconsin 14 15 43 80 70 44 53 52 69 274
Iowa 24 29 66 64 43 45 41 48 158
Utah 20 13 33 55 86 85 43 7 16 31 44 40 0 304
Montana 12 42 77 79 36 84 46 0 126
Nebraska 14 29 60 93 50 25 44 0 207
Wyoming 25 61 93 38 9 14 45 80 43 0 163
Minnesota 12 20 46 115 34 34 49 64 56
Rhode Island 15 42 114 96 51 35 28 23 120 486 25
New Mexico 14 38 88 59 50 52
Indiana 18 44 87 71 64
Nevada 16 27 75 68 23 35 0
Ohio 67 64 47 37 79 230
Tennessee 72 93 40 19 56 74 0 94
Kansas 85 36 14 41 54 271
Oklahoma 84 52 15 54 59 0
Arkansas 86 51 28 5 34 74 56 0 297
Georgia 80 51 28 12 54 73 0
South Carolina 75 67 21 61 92 41 0 291 112
North Carolina 68 52 23 15 49 36 0 255
Colorado 25 10 6 54 0 260 26
Washington 7 8 9 0 110 12
Missouri 31 45
Louisiana 26 126 50 0 271
mississippi 12 110 65 0 231 156
Alabama 14 81 77 0
Alaska 83 121 59 0 258 170 28
W. Virginia 85 75 43 0 135
Kentucky 89 57 21 0 154 12
Vermont 58 82 286 27
New hampshire 42 90 74 11
Illinois 80 233 12
Maine 70 150 15
Massachusetts 80 303 20
Delaware 342 9
West Virginia
Connecticut 14
Source: Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021


See Epicenters
State and City cases and deaths per capita
I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.
Covid-19 Vaccinations: County and State Tracker - The New York Times

California

Click on Charts to go to the current version.


Regions:


See the See Timeline for a history of infection rates and the tier system October 2020 - June 2021 (Alpha surge).


Cumulative Deaths:

Bay Area Region vs Other Regions

A LA Times report said that in January 2022 the death rate in southern California was 3 times higher than the Bay Area.

The Bay Area in California has traditionally had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind the Northern California region and was usually lower than the State rate. As of May 2022 the Bay Area cumulative death rate over the life of COVID was about half the other regions. See above.
As of May 2022 it has the highest new case rate rate. It is still lower than historical rates.

See Current Region data above.

I Had a theory that the regions which had higher rates in the past have developed a herd immunity.
However, as of the end of July Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley were back on top with the highest rates, so that theory doesn't hold.
My new theory is that areas with the highest inter-state and international visitors are affected first. That was the case in the North East states also.

The CDC sampled blood for antibodies from September 2021 to February 2022 and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected, which is much higher than the 24% of cases reported, so we would be approaching heard immunity numbers. However the frequent mutations in the omicron variant messes up the heard immunity theory.

North Central Califronia Counties Map

See county data below.


CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.
Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov


Holiday surge: 2020

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.
California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
ASC Building Products   News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project



North Central California Counties

Average new cases per day per 100,000 .
June 2021 -
06/05 07/15 08/14  9/3  11/1 1/72/12/253/124/25/65/278/189/2910/2111/11
United States 4.2 9.3 39 50 20 195 126 22 10 7 21 33 29 141112
California 2.3 8.7 34 35 15 166 148 26 11 6 19 39 29 12810
San Francisco 22 7 167 87 32 8 14 42 59 22 10816
San Mateo 1.3 6.4 21 23 8 174 109 23 13 11 37 61 23 111014
Santa Clara 1.3 5.1 18 25 8 163 133 22 10 11 33 59 26 9910
Alameda 119 18 10 9 26 50 19 9710
Contra-Costa 25 50 27 9109
Sierra 0 16 3 0 5 14 10 002
Napa 1.4 5.1 25 26 8 149 117 28 19 6 23 37 24 972
Marin 31 60 18 996
Sanoma 182 139 26 17 8 29 46 19 975
Yolo 1.8 6.3 33 44 18 159 102 19 11 11 20 43 26 10913
Solano 1.3 10 27 66 11 120 122 49 13 6 20 50 22 101010
Sacramento 0.3 11.7 39 73 14 117 121 25 10 7 15 38 24 978
Placer 1.3 8.3 37 77 24 91 109 24 8 4 12 34 19 766
Sutter 13.4 60 72 22 99 110 26 22 8 11 29 30 11510
El Dorado 11 30 16 6513
Davis 18 4 212† 41 10 6 4
On January 10, 2022 Davis had an average of 210 new cases per day per 100,000, higher than Yolo Co, California and the US.
Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow, But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate.
I attribute that to 35,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back. If 150 of the 210 cases (15 day average on 1/7) were students that would 0.4% of students.


Bay Area & Sac Area (partial) County Case Rates:

"
County stats

Why are the cases per 100K different in the NY Times report and the California State report? (Yolo and San Mateo below)
I don't know why the Times shows higher numbers per 100K than the state data below (only San Mateo and Yolo are shown but numbers are higher for all counties).
I sent the Times a question, but haven't heard back.

Both numbers are probably low because of many cases not being reported.
See Davis Wastewater Testing below.

Cumulative to Sept 24, 2022
Deaths per
100,000
Cases per
100,000
Vaccinated
United States 317 28,875 68%
California 243 28,423 74%
Bay area
Santa Clara › 129 23,242 88%
Contra Costa › 123 23,277 83%
Alameda › 121 21,838 84%
Marin › 120 19,360 91%
San Francisco › 117 21,428 86%
Napa › 116 24,330 80%
San Mateo › 108 23,177 86%
Sonoma › 105 22,578 80%
Solano › 103 25,040 70%
Greater Sacramento
Sutter › 242 27,498 62%
Sacramento › 222 24,371 69%
Placer › 166 21,275 69%
Sierra › 166 12,080
Yolo › 152 23,362 72%
El Dorado › 120 18,875 64%

San Mateo County


San Mateo County coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak - Los Angeles Times
San Mateo County Health
Average cases per day and per 100,000 30 days as of Aug 18
City Pop-
ulation
Av. Cases per dayCurrent
7-day
Total per
100K
US 331M 19 29
California 39.5M 16 29
San Mateo Co 743,331 45 14
Colma 1,302 2.2 166
East Palo Alto 29,593 22.3 75
North Fair Oaks 14,374 8.8 61
South San Francisco 67,402 36.6 54
Daly City 106,668 56.2 53
San Bruno 43,086 20.6 48
Redwood City 85,784 40.1 47
Broadmore 5,171 2.4 46
Brisbane 4,696 2.1 45
Woodside 5,544 2.4 44
Millbrae 22,631 9.8 43
Burlingame 30,573 12.6 41
Pacifica 38,975 16.0 41
San Carlos 30,159 12.2 41
San Mateo 104,343 41.7 40
Belmont 27,103 10.4 38
Menlo Park 34,137 12.7 37
Foster City 33,987 11.3 33
Ladera 1,607 0.5 31
Half Moon Bay 12,833 3.7 29
Portola Valley 4,594 1.3 28
Atherton 7,166 2.0 28
Hillsborough 11,451 3.1 27
Emerald Hills 4,722 1.2 25
West Menlo Park 4,161 1.0 23
Midcoast Region 11,271 2.3 20
* Midcoast Region - The area between Pacifica and Half Moon Bay including, Montara (2,909), Moss Beach & Seal Cove (3.236), Princeteon-by-the Sea (297), El Granada (5,483), and Miramar.


Yolo County

Sources: [7-day average case count]

* LA Times may report total for 7-days not the per-day-average.

Yolo Co. Covid-data-tracker| CDC


Davis:

Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Healthy Davis Together Historic Wastewater Testing


In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.

This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.

Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.

Bay Area Wastewater
Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford



Links to County Dashboards.

California, San Francisco Co, Santa Clara, Santa Clara Co, San Mateo, Alameda Co, Alameda, Sierra, Yolo, Yolo Co, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Sutter Co, Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News


Other

Old News

Risk-Assessment
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October, 2020.
. S>
You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported and get a risk probability.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because case rates were unreliable from the lack of testing.
In "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States" | Nature Communications Sept 2020, They estimate the actual number of infections from February to April, 2020 was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.
See U. Washington study.

I eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.
See Risk Assessment

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.


Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.


Sources:

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate