Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines | Forcasting
last updated 18 January 2020
Some data only updated once per week.
Daily data is 7 day averages.
Click on charts to get the current versions.

Contents: The Numbers:
World: Regions | Latin America | Asia | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States: Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California:: CA Current notes: | Regional Stay At Home Order | Vaccination Phases: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical): | North Central California Counties | Holiday surge
Yolo & Santa Clara Counties:: Yolo County | Santa Clara County | Davis & Palo Alto | Yolo County Vaccination Info

What's new other than updated charts:


Related Notes::Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Good Twitter feeds
Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because of the lack of testing.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October.
. You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
and Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States | Nature Communications Sept 2020.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.


Recent News:
January 15:
World total deaths exceeded 2 million.
The post holiday surge seems to be leveling off in most places.
Many states are havaing trouble getting up to speed in vaccinations.

World Stats:


Click on charts to get a current version.

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.


Click on Charts to go to the current version.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

This chart hasn't been updated since December.

Case Rate Dec 16, 2020
Region Population New Cases New Cases
per Million
US 331,000,000 220,386 666
Europe 747,636,026 345,000 461
Latin America 653,962,331 68,000 104
Middle East 411,000,000 20,000 49
Asia 4,641,054,775 60,000 13
Africa 1,347,333,004 19,000 14



See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

January 2

We've included the countries out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M), with the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection. Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.



NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC


Other countries - Deaths per Million: Pakistan - 438; Ireland - 423; Israel - 356; Belgium - 176; Peru - 118; Hungary - 117; Argentina - 100; Switzerland - 100; Chile - 91; Bolivia - 82; Netherlands - 76; Iran - 68; Ireland - 53; Costa Rica - 47; Israel - 46; Australia - 36; South Korea - 2; Pakistan - 5; New Zeland - 5; China - 3; New Zeland - 0.5Taiwan - 0.3
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%


During an outbreak of a pandemic the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease. Actual infections are greater than confirmed cases and there is a lag between case counts and deaths.
See more at Mortality Risk of COVID-19 - Our World in Data
See also: Mortality Analyses - Case Fatality Rate | Johns Hopkins

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand


10 most populated countries Total and % infected. Dec 21
Pop Million Total Cases M % infected
United States 330 19.13 5.8%
Brazil 212 7.48 3.5%
Russia 143 3.02 2.1%
Mexico 129 1.38 1.1%
India 1,325 10.21 0.8%
Bangladesh 163 0.509 0.3%
Indonesia 273 0.713 0.3%
Pakistan 233 0.473 0.2%
China 1,394 0.96 0.1%
Nigeria 214 0.084 0.04%


Asia:


Latin America:

In early June when Brazil had the highest number of total new cases in the world, their government removed comprehensive numbers on coronavirus cases and deaths from the Health Ministry's website, claiming without offering evidence that state officials had been reporting inflated figures to secure more federal funding. The numbers were later brought back after a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing the data.


United Kingdom - England - Jan 9
New Variant:
UK and Ireland case rates have shot up since new variants of COVID-19 were discovered.
The U.K. variant was reported on December 14.
Some people are calling it a strain but a strain of a virus has distinct properties and a particular immune response. These are variants.

The South African variant was from three people from Ireland who traveled to South Africa over the Christmas holidays. They think it has been contained as of January 9.
The U.K. variant is more common than the South African variant in Ireland.
Estimates are that the new variant is 50 - 70% more contagious than the previously circulating form of the virus.


Current UK rates
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United Kingdom 66,650,000 3,072,349 59,653 81,431 915 4.6% 90 1,222 13.7


United States:

Jan 15
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Jan 15
United States 331,000,000 24,137,064 235,607 402,397 3,384 7.3% 71 1216 10.2 11.4% 3.7%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average


United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer


See Positivity Rate.


A Columbia University report states that as of October more than half of the COVID-19 fatalities in the United States were "avoidable". US's higher mortality rate is because of a confluence of factors, stemming from delayed responses, to missed opportunities, to inadequate guidance, coordination, and leadership. Each action - or inaction - had a substantial role in distinguishing the U.S. response from other developed nations.
South Korea and the U.S. both discovered their first case on January 20, 2020.
By March 16th, over 250,000 South Koreans had been tested - or about one in every 200 citizens. The U.S. didn't reach the same proportional testing rate for several weeks until April 4th. 130,000 - 210,000 AVOIDABLE COVID-19 DEATHS - AND COUNTING - IN THE U.S. | National Center for Disaster Preparedness | Earth Institute - Columbia University


The epicenters keeps changing:
I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.

Hot Spots Bold - States 50% higher than national average thru Dec 2 and 30% higher after that.
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April
Peak
July 15 Sep. 8 Oct. 8 Nov 2 Dec 2 Jan 4 Jan 15
New York 51 4 6 7 10 37 71 89
New Jersey 39 4 6 8 18 46 49
California 3 20 11 8 10 37 96 105
Florida 6 56 13 12 20 39 62
Arizona 4 51 8 9 19 62 112 122
Texas 3 37 13 13 20 38 63
North Dakota 13 38 60 139 89 26
South Dakota 27 55 134 100 48
Idaho 37 16 28 45 70 50
Wisconsin 14 15 43 80 70 44
Iowa 24 29 66 64 43
Utah 20 13 33 55 86 85 98
Montana 12 42 77 79 36
Nebraska 14 29 60 93 50
Wyoming 25 61 93 38
Minnesota 12 20 46 115 34
Rhode Island 15 42 114 96 92
New Mexico 14 38 88 59
Indiana 18 44 87 71
Nevada 16 27 75 68
Ohio 67 64
Tennessee 72 93 74
Kansas 85 68
Oklahoma 84 95
Arkansas 86 89
Georgia 17 30 80 86
South Carolina 88
Kentucky 80
US 10 20 10 15 24 50 66 71
The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29
Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.
See Epicenters


CDC COVID Data Tracker

Vaccination Progress by state

People per 100K who have received the first vaccine dose.
Top states and others I'm interested in.
South Dakota 5,451 New Jersey 2,486
West Virginia 5,376 Washington 2,472
Colorado 3,789 Pennsylvania 2,385
New York 2,979 California 1,981
Florida 2,949 Nevada 1,904
Illinois 2,613 Arizona 1,894
Percent of doses received administered:

U.S. Vaccination Progress


See Epicenters
State and City cases and deaths per capita
I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.

California

Jan 15
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Jan 15
United States 331,000,000 24,137,064 235,607 402,397 3,384 7.3% 71 1216 10.2 11.4% 3.7%
California 39,510,000 2,925,929 42,304 32,971 536 7.4% 107 834 13.6 12.6% 3.0%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average

See county data below.

Click on Charts to go to the current version.


CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor’s Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.

Regional Stay At Home Order

Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov


California Vaccination Progress
Vaccination regions are different than ICU availability regions.

Region Doses Administered
1/81/16
1 226,660 527,768
2 150,583 329,813
3 11,418 24,253
4 31,708 69,890
5 20,893 46,446
6 96,005 202,975
Total 537,267 1,201,145
% 1.4% 3.0%
US 12,279,180
3.7%
Source: VaccineDoses | cdph.ca.gov

California Vaccination Phases
Vaccines - COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov

News:

See Yolo county vaccination below.

Phase 1A Phase 1B Phase 1CPhase 2
2.4 million people 15 million people
Note this number is much higher than a number the Governor reported on Jan 4
13 million people704 K people
Underway1 Likely January - February1 Likely March onward Likely Summer or Fall
  • Healthcare workers
  • Long-term care residents
1B Tier One:
  • Individuals 75 and older
  • Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: education, childcare, emergency services, and food and agriculture
1B Tier Two:
  • Individuals 65 -74 years of age
  • Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: transportation and logistics; industrial, commercial, residential, and sheltering facilities and services; critical manufacturing
  • Congregate settings with outbreak risk: incarcerated and homeles.

  • Individuals 50 -64 years of age
  • People 16-64 years of age and have an underlying health condition or disability which increases their risk of severe COVID-19
  • Those at risk of exposure at work in the following sectors: water and wastewater; defense; energy; chemical and hazardous materials; communications and IT; financial services; government operations / community-based essential functions
1. Timing California COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | SF Chronicle

Yolo County Vaccination Info below

As of Jan 7th California aims to immunize 1 million people within the next 10 days.

1B Tier Two will start when Tier One is completed. Within a Tier there is no priority
There is no state registry to sign-up.
General public should coordinate with your healthcare provider.

Second shot:
Pfizer - 21 days
Moderna - 28 days
2nd shots should take presidence over 1st shots, but as of Jan. 8 there was a controversy over what to do if there is not enough doses for both.

Phase 2 tentatively scheduled for Spring.

Children:
Currently, COVID-19 vaccines are not recommended for children:

Clinical trials are ongoing to identify a safe vaccine for children.

Links:
See Yolo Co below

- CA COVID-19 News on Twitter
- @GavinNewsom
- @CAgovernor

- Vaccines - When can I get vaccinated |COVID19 Response | COVID19.ca.gov
- Essential Workforce/ Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers (ECIW) lists 131 Essential Job Categories
COVID-19 Hotline 833 422-4255
Email: covidcallcenter@cdph.ca.gov

- V-safe After Vaccination Health Checker | CDC is an app that notifies you when your 2nd dose is due.


Yolo County / Davis Vaccine Info
Coronavirus Vaccine | Yolo County

A friend said on Fri 1/14 "I just called my medical group (woodland clinic) and was told that I was the first person that called after a memo had come down, 30 minutes prior, to open vaccination clinic appointments."
Another responded, "I just called, a long wait on the phone, but worth it. I have appointments for next Friday"

Yolo County COVID-19 Vaccine Availability - Interest form - The goal of this interest card is to obtain information so that as each Phase and Tier progress, the County can alert you to the availability of the vaccine.

Healthcare Provider Links:

News from UC Davis Health 916 703-5555
UC Davis Health launches COVID-19 patient vaccinations (video) Jan 12.
See more UC Davis Healthcare Vaccination links.

COVID-19 vaccine | Kaiser Permanente What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine 866-454-8855
As of Friday 1/15 they say they are still in Phase 1A, but also include people 65 and older.

COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions | Sutter Health
Yolo County plans to launch an online portal to the public on the week of Jan 11 to begin the process of screening people for Phase 1B.


Earlier California Stages and Tiers:

See California Timeline for details on the timeline.

Stages:

Tiers:
August 28
County risk
Level - Tier
New Cases/
100K
Positivity
rate
Activities
1 Widespread >7 > 8% Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed
2 Substantial 4-7 5-8% Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed
3 Moderate 1-3.9 2-4.9% Some indoor business operations are open with modifications
4 Minimal < 1 <2% Most indoor business operations are open with modifications

See Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response for specific guidance.

Dec Regional Stay At Home Order

The state is broken into 5 regions. The Regional Stay Home Order, announced December 3, 2020, will go into effect within 24 hours in regions with less than 15% ICU availability. It prohibits private gatherings of any size, closes sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and requires 100% masking and physical distancing in all others.
The order will remain in effect for at least 3 weeks and, after that period.

All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands, or as otherwise authorized.


Califronia Counties Map

See Regional at the California Timeline for details.

Also About COVID-19 restrictions - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response | COVID-19.ca.gov

California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
  News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project



North Central California Counties
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
California 39,510,000 2,925,929 42,304 32971 536 7.4% 107 834 13.6 12.6
United States 331,000,000 24,137,064 235,607 402,397 3,384 7.3% 71 1216 10.2 11.4

North Central Califronia Counties Map

The number in the charts below are new cases per 100,000. The source documents use other numbers. Total new cases and weekly total.
Bay area:




Holiday surge:

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.
Cities:
Davis:

Yolo county keeps updating their numbers for 2 weeks. Actual city numbers start to stabilize in 8 to 10 days.
Other sites get yolo county data from the health department which is more current.

Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
Jan 15
United States 331,000,000 24,137,064 235,607 402,397 3,384 7.3% 71 1216 10.2 11.4% 3.7%
California 39,510,000 2,925,929 42,304 32,971 536 7.4% 107 834 13.6 12.6% 3.0%
Yolo Co 220,500 9,747 127 131 0.7 4.4% 58 594 3.2 2.0%
Jan 7
Davis 70,560 1,430 17 14 2.0% 24 198
Because the population of Davis is less than 100K the rate per 100K is higher than the per day total
Jan 15
Santa Clara Co 1,937,570 91,466 1,481 1,065 9 4.7% 76 550 4.8 2.1%
Palo Alto 67,019 1,107 17 1.7% 26

Places where I have friends or family across the country.
November 21
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331,000,000 12,341,101 172,205 261,051 1,481 3.7% 52 789 4.5 6.7%
New Jersey 8,882,000 313,863 3,855 15,0071 3.5% 43 1,690 7.9%
California 39,510,000 1,072,272 10,800 18,557 62 2.7% 27 470 1.6 6.4%
Sacramento Co 1,540,975 36,630 464 576 2.4% 30 374
Placer Co 398,329 6,224 77 68 1.6% 19 171
Napa 137,744 2,884 48 17 2.1% 35 123 0.00
Sutter 96,971 4,370 112 23 4.5% 115 237
Washoe Co, NV 471,519 22,407 359 246 4.8% 76 522 16.5%
DuPage Co, IL 922921 41,602 692 703 4 4.5% 75 762 4.3
Sarasota Co, FL 433742 12,319 371 166 2.8% 86 383 6.7%
1. New Jersey reports 2 numbers for deaths the official number is 10 times higher than another number called probable deaths. I couldn't find any explanation.


Links to County Dashboards.

California
Santa Clara Co
Alameda
Yolo Co
Sutter Co
Solano County Public Health Dashboards
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA
Sacramento
Placer
Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts
Washoe Co. NV


Other

Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.


Sources:

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate