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last updated 8 April 2020
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 500 new cases in Nevada is significant, 500 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population. I started with Northern California where I live, but have expanded to include national and international data.
Some data only updated every several weeks.
April 2
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331 31,337,729 65,770 567,828 862 9.5% 20 1,715 2.6 4.7% 18%
California 39.510 3,675,660 2,658 59,610 144 9.3% 7 1,509 3.6 1.1% 22%
Yolo Co 0.220 13,359 11 197 6.1% 5 893
Santa Clara Co 1.937 114,852 109 1,949 5.9% 6 1,006
San Mateo Co 0.770 40,542 51 553 5.3% 7 719
* Daily data is 7 day averages.

Click on Charts to go to the current version.
 

 

 

Contents: The Numbers:
World: Regions | Latin America | Asia | UK - New Variant | Case Positivity Rate
United States: Epicenters | U.S. Vaccination Progress
California:: CA Current notes: | Tiers: | Vaccination Progress | California Timeline (historical)
| North Central California Counties | Holiday surge | Davis and Palo ALto | Yolo County | Santa Clara County

What's new other than updated charts:


Related Notes::Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Good Twitter feeds
Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because of the lack of testing.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October.
. You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
and Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States | Nature Communications Sept 2020.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.


World Stats:


Click on charts to get a current version. You can mouse over charts there to get more information.

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.


Click on Charts to go to the current version.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

This chart hasn't been updated since December.

Case Rate Dec 16, 2020
Region Population New Cases New Cases
per Million
US 331,000,000 220,386 666
Europe 747,636,026 345,000 461
Latin America 653,962,331 68,000 104
Middle East 411,000,000 20,000 49
Asia 4,641,054,775 60,000 13
Africa 1,347,333,004 19,000 14



See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

We've included the countries out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M), with the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection. Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Total:

Where is the March Increase coming from:


NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC


Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand


See More International Stats


United States:

April 2
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331 31,337,729 65,770 567,828 862 9.5% 20 1,715 2.6 4.7% 18%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average


United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer


See Positivity Rate.


The epicenters keeps changing:
The first confirmed case relating to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was announced by the state of Washington on January 21, 2020. Washington made the first announcement of a death from the disease in the U.S. on February 29 Washington had the highest absolute number of confirmed cases (500) and the highest number per capita (7 cases per 100,000)of any state in the country, until it was surpassed by New York state on April 10.

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.

Hot Spots Bold - States 50% higher than national average thru Dec 2 and 30% higher after that. . 
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April
Peak
July 15 Sep. 8 Oct. 8 Nov 2 Dec 2 Jan 4 Feb 3Mar 3Apr 7
US 10 20 10 15 24 50 66 45 19 19
New York 51 4 6 7 10 37 71 5332 34
New Jersey 39 4 6 8 18 46 49 51 34 47
Rhode Island 15 42 114 96 51 35 28
Pennsylvania 13 18 53 56 42 20 33
California 3 20 11 8 10 37 96 42 11 7
Florida 6 56 13 12 20 39 62 46 25 24
Arizona 4 51 8 9 19 62 112 64 16 9
Texas 3 37 13 13 20 38 63 70 25 10
New Mexico 12 14 38 88 59
North Dakota 13 38 60 139 89 2624
South Dakota 27 55 134 100 4843
Wisconsin 3 14 15 43 80 70 44
Michigan 16 6 11 35 72 27 17 14 70
Minnesota 6 11 12 20 46 115 3434
Illinois 24
Idaho 37 16 28 45 70 50
Iowa 24 29 66 64 43
Utah 20 13 33 55 86 85 43
Montana 12 42 77 79 36
Nebraska 14 29 60 93 50 25
Wyoming 25 61 93 38
Colorado 25
Indiana 18 44 87 71
Nevada 16 27 75 68
Tennessee 72 93 40 19
Kansas 85 36
Oklahoma 84 52
Arkansas 86 51 28 5
Georgia 17 30 80 51 28 12
South Carolina 75 67 21
North Carolina 68 52 23 15

Surge in New York, Michigan, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Jersey

See Epicenters


More

Total Deaths per 1 Million April 6 USA Total 1,724

1 New Jersey 2,786
2 New York 2,628
3 Massachusetts 2,515
4 Rhode Island 2,485
5 Mississippi 2,378
6 Arizona 2,339
7 Connecticut 2,224
8 Louisiana 2,191
9 South Dakota 2,191
10 Alabama 2,172
11 Pennsylvania 1,984
12 Indiana 1,946
13 North Dakota 1,926
14 New Mexico 1,889
15 Arkansas 1,873
16 Illinois 1,870
17 Iowa 1,849
18 Georgia 1,812
19 South Carolina 1,789
20 Tennessee 1,752
21 Michigan 1,740
22 Nevada 1,720
23 Kansas 1,702
24 Texas 1,691
25 Delaware 1,609
26 Ohio 1,603
27 Florida 1,576
28 District Of Columbia 1,525
29 West Virginia 1,519
30 California 1,516
31 Missouri 1,498
32 Montana 1,393
33 Maryland 1,388
34 Kentucky 1,384
35 Oklahoma 1,252
36 Minnesota 1,237
37 Virginia 1,220
38 Wyoming 1,211
39 North Carolina 1,164
40 Wisconsin 1,142
41 Nebraska 1,129
42 Idaho 1,105
43 Colorado 1,088
44 New Hampshire 919
45 Washington 703
46 Utah 667
47 Oregon 575
48 Maine 556
49 Alaska 422
50 Vermont 369
51 Hawaii 330


See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker


Vaccination Progress


See also Vaccination


See Epicenters
State and City cases and deaths per capita
I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.

California

Apr 2
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331 31,337,729 65,770 567,828 862 9.5% 20 1,715 2.6 4.7% 18%
California 39.510 3,675,660 2,658 59,610 144 9.3% 7 1,509 3.6 1.1% 22%
* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-average

See county data below.

Click on Charts to go to the current version.


CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor’s Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.

Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov


Tiers:
August 28
County risk
Level - Tier
New Cases/
100K
Positivity
rate
Activities
1 Widespread >7 > 8% Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed
2 Substantial 4-7 5-8% Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed
3 Moderate 1-3.9 2-4.9% Some indoor business operations are open with modifications
4 Minimal < 1 <2% Most indoor business operations are open with modifications


North Central Califronia Counties Map

See Where each county stands in color-coded tier system | SF Chronicle
and Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response | covid19.ca.gov for specific guidance.

Orange Tier: What's open.


The Red Tier:
According to California's Blueprint for a Safer Economy, the red tier opens up the possibilities for more things to do in a county. However, the red tier also means there is still "substantial spread" in the county. There are between four and seven new daily cases per 100,000 residents, or between 5% to 8% testing positivity rate. What restrictions are relaxed? What's still closed?
Holiday surge:

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.
California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
  News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project



North Central California Counties
April 2
Place Popu-
lation
M
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Posi-
tivity
Rate
%
Fully
vacc-
inated
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331 31,337,729 65,770 567,828 862 9.5% 20 1,715 2.6 4.7% 18%
California 39.510 3,675,660 2,658 59,610 144 9.3% 7 1,509 3.6 1.1% 22%

North Central Califronia Counties Map

The number in the charts below are new cases per 100,000. The source documents use other numbers. Total new cases and weekly total.
April 5
Bay area:




Cities:
April 2
Place Popu-
lation
Cases Deaths Cases Deaths
Total New * Total New* % of
popu-
lation
New
/100K
Total
/1M
New
/1M
United States 331,000,000 31,337,729 65,770 567,828 862 9.5% 20 1,715 2.6
California 39,510,000 3,675,660 2,658 59,610 144 9.3% 7 1,509 3.6
Yolo Co 220,500 13,359 11 197 6.1% 5 893
Davis 70,560 2,083 4 18 3.0% 6 255
Santa Clara Co 1,937,570 114,852 109 1,949 5.9% 6 1,006
Palo Alto 67,019 1,434 4 2.1% 6
San Mateo Co 769,545 40,542 51 553 5.3% 7 719
Davis:
See Davis Testing


Counts on the Yolo County Dashboard do not stabilize for 10-12 days.


Links to County Dashboards.

California
Santa Clara Co
Alameda
Yolo Co
Sutter Co
Solano County Public Health Dashboards
Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA
Sacramento
Placer
Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts
Washoe Co. NV


Other

Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.


Sources:

Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate