Don's Home Health | Pandemics Coronavirus Pandemic (Covid-19) Contact
Other Pages: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | Treatment-Vaccine | Coronavirus Safety - Prevention - Treatment | Personal Protection Equipment | Coronavirus Facts | Vaccines
last updated 18 October 2020
Some data only updated once per week.
Click on charts to get the current versions.

Contents: The Numbers: World | Latin America | Asia | Case Positivity Rate | US | Epicenters | US Forecasts | Some State & City numbers |
California | North Central California | Tahoe | Yolo County | Placer County | Santa Clara County | Reopening Surge |
Important References (CDC, WHO, ...) | Primary Sources | Facts about covid-19 | Safety Prevention | What is the real number of infected people? | Sources | Reopening Surge | More Links | Good Twitter feeds


I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
See more about the rational for what's here.
World Stats:
Click on charts to get a current version.

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

October 17, 2020
Place Cases Deaths
World 39,929,571 1,114,120


Click on Charts to go to the current version.

Regional share of daily confirmed cases:

Although the number of deaths per million in Asia is still fairly low (< 1 to 4) their share of the total is larger because of total population.

Case Rate Oct. 20, 2020
Region Population New Cases New Cases
per Million
Europe 747,636,026 137,000 183
US 331,000,000 57,000 172
Latin America 653,962,331 60,000 92
Middle East 411,000,000 18,000 44
Asia 4,641,054,775 78,000 17
Africa 1,347,333,004 9,700 7
See also Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries reopen | Financial Times


October 10, 2020

Expand.

World new case map
new total cases

March - May 15th

July - October 17 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-07-01..latest&country=DEU~KOR~ESP~GBR~USA~CAN~FRA~BEL~MEX~SWE~IRN~BOL~ZAF~ARG~COL~RUS~PER~POL~ITA~CZE®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc


Latin American
October 3

Click on the chart for an updated version.


See The Coronavirus in Latin America | AS/COA


Asia:

More


Test Positivity Rate
August 3
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.


Rates range from 50% in Bolivia to 0.4% in Australia
The US is at 8%
See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand
United Kingdom 3.58
United States 2.91
Italy 1.68
France 0.90
South Africa 0.27
5 day average Sept 22-26.
Because some countries don't report daily they are not included.
Differences in reporting affect results.


United States: October 18, 2020
Population Cases Cases
/100K
New
Cases
New
/1M
Deaths Deaths
/1M
New
Deaths
New Deaths
/1M
% Positive
Tests.
US 331,000,000 8,440,215 2,550 57,349 173 225,121 680 725 2.19 5.3%


United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer

CDC COVID Data Tracker


State and City cases and deaths per capita
  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.

I've looked at places where I have friends and family or places which were considered hot spots in the news.
I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 7 times the incidence of NJ. See Surge below.


The epicenters keeps changing:
Reopening sees surge in cases:
In April New York and New Jersey with the highest rates and California (largest population), accounted for 46% of all the cases in the country.
See NY,NJ,CA below

A surge after reopening in the South and Southwest changed the epicenter in July. Florida, Texas, Arizona and California accounted for 52% of all cases by July 15.

See below.

By September the country wide daily new cases per 100,000 was down and only North Dakota seemed to be rising.
In October the country rate and many states were up slightly. California was down and Wisconsin joined the ranks of the top 5. The Dakota rates rose above the April peaks in NY and NJ and the July peaks in the South.
State Daily New Cases
per 100,000
April
Peak
July 15 Sep. 8 Oct. 8
New York 51 4 6 7
New Jersey 39 4 6 8
California 3 20 11 8
Florida 6 56 13 12
Arizona 4 51 8 9
Texas 3 37 13 13
North Dakota 38 60
South Dakota 27 55
Wisconsin 43
Utah 33
Montana 31
Iowa 24 29
Idaho 37 28
US 10 20 10 15


See old US State and City data
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
October 2: Highest cases per 100,000 per day

Source: U.S. coronavirus cases and state maps: Tracking cases, deaths - Washington Post
September 8: Highest cases per 100,000 per day


July surge in the South:
The four states below accounted for 52% of all cases by July 15.

     

Coronavirus Rising in Florida, Arizona, California and Texas: What We Know - The New York Times

New Cases per million - Average per Million per day June 22 - 29
State popu-
lation
New per M Total Cases/M
Arizona 7.3 438 10,577
Florida 21.5 307 6,814
Nevada 3.1 202 5,809
Texas 29.0 201 5,494
California 39.5 143 5,643
Illinois 12.7 71 11,325
New Jersey 8.9 64 19,860
New York 20.1 38 21,453
See * U.S. COVID-19 case rate by state | Statista


A UC Berkeley poll released on August 5th found 80 percent of Biden voters thought the state moved too quickly to reopen businesses, while 79 percent of Trump supporters thought the opposite -- that the restrictions needed to be lifted because of the damage inflicted on the economy. Overall, 61 percent of residents said the state was too hasty in its initial reopening.
Source: Mercury News



California

October 18, 2020

Population Cases Cases
/100K
New
Cases
New
/1M
Deaths Deaths
/1M
New
Deaths
New Deaths
/1M
% Positive
Tests.
California 39,510,000 870,791 2,204 3,474 88 16,985 430 59 1.48 2.5%
US 331,000,000 8,440,215 2,550 57,349 173 225,121 680 725 2.19 5.3%

See Case Fatality Rate

Coronavirus: 'Discrepancies' in California data as deaths rise August 5


California Department of Public health: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Resilience Roadmap - Reopening Stages

COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
California | The COVID Tracking Project


California Timeline: Mar 11 Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social dimerced cing of 6 feet per person. Gatherings of individuals who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should be limited to no more than 10 people, while also following social distancing guidelines.

March 19 First state to issue a Stay at home order (Shelter in Place).
All individuals living in the State of California are currently ordered to stay home or at their place of residence, except for permitted work, local shopping or other permitted errands.
Essencial Services:

Essential state and local government functions Outdoor exercise is permitted with social distancing.

May 8 the stay home order was modified. In addition to essential activity, retail is allowed, along with the infrastructure to support it. California restaurants and shopping malls can soon reopen in counties that meet state standards for testing and success at reducing cases of the coronavirus,

May 26, 2020, Hair salons and barber shops will be allowed to reopen in 47 of the state's counties after being closed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

On June 12 most California Counties were allowed to move to Stage 3 with some indoor dining with table spacing, hotels, outdoor recreation and other facilities allowed to open.

Most Bay Area counties were still restricted.

Seven of the nine Bay Area counties have reported recent, significant upticks in cases, and the Bay Area as a whole recorded a nearly 40% jump in new cases
Source: Coronavirus cases on the rise across the Bay Area, especially in Alameda County - SFChronicle.com, May 26.

On June 18 as new cases in California continued to increase, the Governor announced masks were mandetory in high-risk settings where 6' separation could not be achieved.

On July 1 Governor Newsom announced 19 counties must close indoor restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms for at least three weeks. If possible, those businesses can operate outdoors. Bars and breweries, indoors and outdoors, have been ordered to close..
Contra Costa, Fresno, Glenn, Imperial, Kern, Kings, L.A., Merced, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Solano, Stanislaus, Tulare., and Ventura.

July 8 The state is monitoring data for elevated disease transmission (case rates and positive test results), increased hospitalizations and limited hospital capacity (availability of ICU beds and ventilators). Any county not meeting threshold criteria in at least one category goes on the watch list.
Marin was on the list and decided to halt indoor dining for at least three weeks in response. Santa Clara was no longer on the list but the previous restrictions remain based on having been on the list for three or more consecutive days.

July 13 Bars, indoor restaurants, movie theaters and many other recently reopened businesses across California are ordered to close.
29 counties on the state watch list must now close gyms, houses of worship, hair and nail salons, offices for noncritical work sectors, shopping malls and barbershops.
In the Bay Area, the more restrictive orders take effect in Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Solano,Santa Clara and Sonoma counties.

July 17
Newsom releases requirements for schools to physically reopen for the new school year. Under the requirements, 90% of California’s K-12 aged children will begin the next school year doing distance learning.

August 28
Newsom unveils a new plan by which state officials will monitor California’s coronavirus hotspots, doing away with the previous system involving a watchlist of counties. The new system has four tiers of colors. Counties will fall into one of the four tiers, which will indicate what businesses can and can’t be open.
County risk Level New Cases/
100K
Positivity
rate
Activities
Widespread >7 > 8% Many non-essential indoor business operations are closed
Substantial 4-7 5-8% Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed
Moderate 1-3.9 2-4.9% Some indoor business operations are open with modifications
Minimal < 1 <2% Most indoor business operations are open with modifications
Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

October 19
County cases % of
population
Tier new cases
/ 100K
Alameda 1.4%   4.2
Contra Costa 1.6%   5.3
El Dorado 0.7%  
Merced 3.4%  
Marin 2.7%   1.5
Napa 1.3%   5.7
Placer 1.0%   5.2
Sacramento 1.6%   4.3
San Francisco 1.3%   3.7
San Joaquin 2.8%  
San Mateo 1.4%   4.3
Santa Clara 1.2%   5.0
Sierra 0.2%  
Solano 1.6%   6.5
Sonoma 1.8%   11.0
Stanislaus 3.3%  
Sutter 1.9%  
Yolo 1.4%   4.1
California 2.2% 8.8
US 2.5% 17.3
Blueprint for a Safer Economy - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response | covid19.ca.gov
California Covid Map and Case Count - The New York Times



Bay area: October 19


 
 


Some City Data:

Yolo Co Oct. 16
Yolo Co


Santa Clara Co: Oct 16
COVID-19 Data and Reports - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara
Cases by Zip Code and City - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara
Sacramento: Oct 16
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