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Sources

• Dec 10 - BA.5 had dropped to 11% of the total new cases.
• Nov 11 - BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have increases from a combined 27% of new cases on Oct 29 to 44% of cases in the U.S. BA.5 has dropped from 59% to 30%
  See US Variants below New cases in Japan have increased 66% and South Korea have increases 37% over the same 2 week period.
• Oct 29 - New variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BA.4.6 now account for 37% of new cases in the U.S. BA.5 is still the most prominent variant.
  See US Variants below
• Oct 21 - A new variant, XBB, a descendant of two different BA.2 variants is emerging.
  XBB, in addition to competitor BQ.1.1, escape antibody immunity.
  XBB has been reported by 26 countries.
  Last week, Singapore's health ministry said its rise in cases over the past month is mainly due to the Omicron XBB subvariant.
  As of Oct 25th Singapores new cases were down 10% over the previous 2 weeks.
  See: Global COVID-19 cases down, but rising in Western Pacific | CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy)

  The european surge of BA.2.75 seems to have peaked.

• Oct 1 - Europe is experience a new surge with a 33% increase in new cases in the last 2 weeks. This time the ongoing COVID-19 wave is being propelled by sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, notably BA.2.75 and BA.5, with each dominant sub-lineage of Omicron showing clear transmission advantages over the previously circulating viruses.
• Sept 1 - The CDC and FDA authorize new Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 specific variants of COVID-19 booster vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer.
• August 11 - The CDC loosens COVID guidance, because the majority of people have some imminity and are unlikely to become severely ill.
  Eliminates
  6 foot guidance.
  Quarantine rule for unvaccinated
  
•                                                       (Click on chart to update)
  August 5 - Despite all the news about a BA.5 surge most regions are now seing decreases in the new case rate. In the last 2 weeks the US new case rate dropped 20% and Europe dropped 30%. However case rates in the US are still 3 times what they were on Apr 1 and Europe is double what it was on June 1, still well below peaks in January.
  All world regions except Asia were down. In the US the Northeast, West and South were down, the Midwest was up slightly; California was down 24%; and all all California regions are down.
  US Wastewater Surveillance sites are also generally showing a decline.
• July 5 - The BA.5 strain, the most contagious one so far, now accounts for more than 50% and BA.4 over 20% of cases in the U.S. according to the CDC. New case counts have not increased much but there is a rise in hospitalizations and test positivity rate. See U.S. data
  "BA.5 is able to evade previous immunity,” said Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children’s Hospital. So, breakthrough infections with people who had previous infections are common.
  Note: only a fraction of new cases are being reported. See below.
  David Montefiori, a professor at the Human Vaccine Institute at Duke University Medical Center, said " BA.4 and BA.5 haven’t been found to cause more severe disease.
  Rather, rises in hospitalizations observed in some places more likely have to do with fading vaccine protection."
  How to protect yourself from COVID subvariant BA.5 | UC Davis.
  and Covid: Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 escape antibodies from vaccination and prior infection, studies suggest - CNN

• June, 2022 - The CDC sampled blood for antibodies from September 2021 to February 2022 and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected. Official counts showed only 24% infected, so only 43% were actually reported.
  

• June 10 - U.S. drops Covid testing requirement for international travelers.

• May 12 - The CDC's official death count from COVID hits 1 million. Other reports said it hit a million several weeks ago. The actual total is much highr.
  I compared the wastewater results for Davis, CA, with reported cases in January and August. It indicated about the same thing.
  
• May 5, 2022 - New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.
  See Data Accuracy below.
• May 2 - The BA.2.12.1 Omicron Variant is spreading. It already makes up nearly 60% of cases in the Northeast US , according to estimates by the CDC. BA.2.12.1 may be 20% to 30% more infectious than BA.2.

• May 5, 2022 - The Bay Area in California which has had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind Northern California and in the Fall of 2022 it had the highest rate. See Bay Area vs other CA regions.
  My theory is that as of August 2022 the Bay area has had the lowest death rate, less than half the other regions, so the population does not have a built up immunity from prior infections.

• Apr 18, 2022 - Although cases continue to rise in the northeast and some other places, Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner and Dr Anthony Fauci do not think is the start of a major outbreak.
  A court case in Florida says the CDC cannot issue mask mandates for transportation.
  TSA says they will not enforce the mask mandate.

  Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation",
  "We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported.

• Apr 9 - The majority of US cases are the BA.2 variant. The only significant change in cases is a 60% increase in the Northeast over the last 3 weeks.
  Mask mandate for plains extended until May 3.
• Mar 3 - The world death count hit 6 million
• Feb 24, 2022 - The BA.2 variant of Omicron is about 30% more transmissible than the original Omicron variant, BA.1, and it is now causing about 1 in 5 Covid-19 cases worldwide.
  It has a low hospitalization rate like BA.1.
  WHO said "They are monitoring countries that have detected BA.2, but so far the subvariant hasn’t caused a fresh surge in cases."" Globally, Covid cases have plunged 21% over the past week.
• Dec 20, 2021 - The Omicron variant accounts for 3/4 of all new cases in the US and is in 40 states.

• Nov 26, 2021 - South Africa announced a new COVID variant, Omicron
  It infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants.

  As of December 4th The Omicron variant had been detected in at least 38 countries but no deaths have yet been reported.

• Nov 1, 2021 - Coronavirus death toll hits 5 million worldwide
• Sept 8 - New cases among children and teenagers have reached the highest weekly level since the pandemic's start, at more than 250,000 for the week ending Sept. 2 — more than a fourth of all new cases that week in the U.S.
• July 27 - CDC Advises Masking Indoors even for vaccinated people In Counties With Substantial Or High Coronavirus Spread.
  2/3 of counties in the country have substantial or high rates.
  See New mask guidance
• July 20, 2021 - India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions | WSJ
  India has officially recorded more than 414,000 coronavirus deaths, but scientists and researchers have said that number undercounts the real toll.
  They estimate the actual number of deaths is between 3.4 and 4.7 million.
  
• July 11, 2021 - US Infection rates are over 50% higher than June lows although still only 10% of what they were in January.
  In part it is blamed on the July 4th weekend, but also on vaccine resistance in parts of the country. Nationally, 55.6% of all Americans have received at least one COVID-19 shot. The five states with the biggest two-week jump in cases per capita all had lower vaccination rates: Missouri, 45.9%; Arkansas, 43%; Nevada, 50.9%; Louisiana, 39.2%; and Utah, 49.5%.
• July 7, 2021 - Coronavirus death toll hits 4 million worldwide as the Delta variant spreads.
  

  North America and Europe are still well off their highs of 450 and 350 cases per million per day.
  Africa's cases cases are concentrated in 6 countries, Tunisia, Nambia, South Africa, Botswana, Libia and Zambia, where the combined case rate is 350 per day per million.

• June 14 - The CDC declared the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given when there is increased evidence of factors such as transmissibility or severity or reduced effectiveness of vaccines or treatments. See the Delta variant in facts.

Executive Summary

Some charts here are only updated every several weeks,
but you can click on the chart to get the current version.

Variants	Dates	Peak daily infection rate per 100,000/ Daily Deaths per 1M
		N. America	Europe	S. America	USA
Alpha	March 2020 - July 2021	47/8	39/7	33/11	76/11
Delta	July 2021 - Nov. 2021	33/5	50/5	18/5	50/6
Omicron *	December 2021 -	150/5	207/4	89/4	241/8
Cumulative to Sept 17, 2022
% Infected		19.0%	30.2%	14.7%	28.4%
Deaths per Million		2,526	2,585	3,058	3,126
Daily Death Rate per million Sept 15, 2022
Daily Deaths per Million		0.88	0.75	0.25	1.27

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.
* The Omicron peak was on or before Jan 31 for the above.
Omicron infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants.
The death rates were slightly lower even though the infection rates 4 or more times higher, so the death per infection were about ¼ the rate of previous variants.
The US death rate was about twice that of other regions because fewer people got vaccinated. By August of 2021 about 55% of Americans had at least 1 dose while 70% of Canadians and people in the UK were vaccinated. That resulted in around 1,500 unnecessary US deaths per day. In May 2022 the cumulative US death toll hit 1 million.

Number's are 7-day averages.
1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
See Our World in Data for current rates.
The numbers are significantly undercounted. The latest WHO report in May 2022 says there have been around 15 million cumulative cases way more that the 6 million reported.
See Data Accuracy

Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths.
Oceana has one of the highest infection rates as of January 2022, because of an outbreak in Australia, but over the course of the virus they have the lowest total death rate, 148 per million, of any continent.

There are multiple sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence.
From Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences July 2021

See Actual Deaths below.

Major trends

World
Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:
Click on the charts to get the current version from the source.
 

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.

- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )

I started this chart as the Omicron surge was growing to show how countries were following a similar pattern.
I kept it because they were generally indicative of Europe and North America.
I added New Zealand and Taiwan because they were traditionally the lowest rates in the world and were having a surge in March and May after the world Omicron variant surge in January.
New Zealand, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan which had been doing much better with cumulative death rates of less than 600 per million while Europe and North America were 4 times higher around 2,500 deaths per million.
Omicron infects different cells in the upper respiratory tract rather than in the lungs, which makes it more transmissible but less severe than the previous variants. My theory is that the western countries have gotten close the herd immunity (A CDC report ) which kept their new infection rates down.
In October Europe seemed to be starting another surge. The US had traditionally lagged them by a couple of weeks, so we'll have to see what happens.

Click on the map below to go the source where you can click on individual countries for their rates.

United States:

2022 New Cases per 100,000 <

	Jan 10	Mar 20	Apr 7	Apr 23	May 9	May 20	Jun 2	Jun 17	July 1	jul 18	Aug 18	Oct 1	Oct 19	Nov 9
Northeast	302	9	14	24	36	49	33	25	26	31	24	20	18	17
Midwest	185	6	6	13	23	30	26	24	25	29	28	14	12	15
West	215	11	9	12	19	32	36	40	43	45	25	12	10	10
South	203	9	7	9	13	22	26	31	37	42	33	12	8	9

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Variants
New variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BA.4.6 now account for 37% of new cases in the U.S. BA.5 is still the most prominent variant.

Source: Variant Proportions - Nowcast CDC

October 29

	BQ.1	BQ.1.1	BA.4.6	Total
US	14.0%	13.1%	9.6%	36.7%
NE	13.6%	6.4%	10.2%	30.2%
NY, NJ	23.5%	19.0%	8.4%	50.9%
Mid East	10.2%	16.6%	11.4%	38.2%
SE	10.2%	11.4%	13.6%	35.2%
midwest	10.3%	13.1%	8.3%	31.7%
South	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	35.0%
SW	12.6%	12.0%	4.3%	28.9%

See Variants in Corona Facts here

California

Summary
Some charts here are only updated every several weeks,
but you can click on the chart to get the current version.

Cumulative to Sept 24, 2022

	Deaths per 100,000	Cases per 100,000	Vaccinated
United States	317	28,875	68%
California	243	28,423	74%
Bay area
Santa Clara ›	129	23,242	88%
Contra Costa ›	123	23,277	83%
Alameda ›	121	21,838	84%
Marin ›	120	19,360	91%
San Francisco ›	117	21,428	86%
Napa ›	116	24,330	80%
San Mateo ›	108	23,177	86%
Sonoma ›	105	22,578	80%
Solano ›	103	25,040	70%
Greater Sacramento
Sutter ›	242	27,498	62%
Sacramento ›	222	24,371	69%
Placer ›	166	21,275	69%
Sierra ›	166	12,080	—
Yolo ›	152	23,362	72%
El Dorado ›	120	18,875	64%

North Central California Counties:

"
Average new cases per day per 100,000 .
N. Cental Counties
June 2021 - Average new cases per day per 100,000 .June 2021 -
-

	06/05 2021	07/15	08/14	9/3	11/1	1/7	2/1	2/25	3/12	4/2	5/6	5/27	8/18	9/29	10/21	11/11	12/10	1/13 2023	2/1	3/3
United States	4.2	9.3	39	50	20	195	126	22	10	7	21	33	29	14	11	12	20	18	13	10	United States
California	2.3	8.7	34	35	15	166	148	26	11	6	19	39	29	12	8	10	29	16	9	9	California
Bay Area																					Bay Area
San Francisco				22	7	167	87	32	8	14	42	59	22	10	8	16	27	14	8	12	San Francisco
San Mateo	1.3	6.4	21	23	8	174	109	23	13	11	37	61	23	10	10	14	28	14	7	9	San Mateo
Santa Clara	1.3	5.1	18	25	8	163	133	22	10	11	33	59	26	10	9	10	33	16	10	10	Santa Clara
Alameda							119	18	10	9	26	50	19	9	7	10	28	15	7	12	Alameda
Contra-Costa											25	50	27	9	10	9	28	16	7	15	Contra-Costa
Napa	1.4	5.1	25	26	8	149	117	28	19	6	23	37	24	9	10	2	19	14	10	9	Napa
Marin											31	60	18	7	7	2	19	11	8	9	Marin
Sanoma						182	139	26	17	8	29	46	19	9	9	6	17	13	6	8	Sanoma
Solano	1.3	10	27	66	11	120	122	49	13	6	20	50	22	8	7	5	23	16	9	10	Solano
Greater Sacramento																					Greater Sacramento
Yolo	1.8	6.3	33	44	18	159	102	19	11	11	20	43	26	5	9	13	16	9	7	8	Yolo
Sacramento	0.3	11.7	39	73	14	117	121	25	10	7	15	38	24	9	10	10	21	11	9	10	Sacramento
Placer	1.3	8.3	37	77	24	91	109	24	8	4	12	34	19	7	7	8	19	11	7	8	Placer
Sutter		13.4	60	72	22	99	110	26	22	8	11	29	30	11	6	6	16	16	5	6	Sutter
El Dorado											11	30	16	6	5	10	19	10	5	5	El Dorado
Sierra							0	16	3	0	5	14	10	0	5	13	0	5	0	0	Sierra
Davis				18	4	212†	41	10	6	4

† Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow. But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate. I attribute that to 30,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back.

The Bay Area in California which has had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind Northern California and in the Fall of 2022 it had the highest rate. See Bay Area vs other CA regions.
My theory is that as of August 2022 the Bay area has had the lowest death rate, less than half the other regions, so the population does not have a built up immunity from prior infections.

I don't know why the New York Times numbers are always higher than the CA Department of Public Health numbers (see Yolo and San Mateo below).

Counties where I and my family live:

Updated on Thursdays:

Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Healthy Davis Together Historic Wastewater Testing

In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.

This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.

Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.

Note: Wastewater results tend to be more variable than reported cases. See the national wastewater results above.

See Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford for other Bay Area wastewater results. More N. Central California data

The Bottom Line - Cumulative Death Rates

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

These stats are not updated as frequently. Death rates are low compared to the first 2 years, so the the curve has flattened out.

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.

Cumulative Deaths per Million September 24, 2022 - Selected Countries

Peru 6368 Hungary 4940 USA 3229 Brazil 3176 Poland 3111 Italy 2935 Belgium 2790 UK 2765 Colombia 2722 Russia * 2648

Europe 2605 Ukraine 2525 Mexico * 2501 Spain 2436 France 2361 Sweden 1968 Germany 1771 Costa Rica 1715 South Africa 1676 Switzerland 1612 Ireland 1558

Israel 1253 Canada 1169 Cuba 754 New Zealand 582 Philippines 556 S. Korea 550 Australia 550 Taiwan 453 India * 375 Japan 353 China 4

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
Source: Worldmeter

* Deaths are significantly undercounted. See Data Accuracy
Mexico and Russia were significantly undercounted in a May 2021 U. Washington Study below.
If you account for that, Russia would have 8,400 deaths per million, Mexico would have 4,700 deaths per million and India would have 3,600 deaths per million per a July 2021 Wall Street Journal report.
China could be up to 130
Deaths in other countries could be up to 40% higher.

Unvaccinated are 14 Times More Likely to Die From COVID | WebMD

US States:

Total Deaths per 1 Million Sept 25

1 Mississippi 4327 2 Arizona 4304 3 Alabama 4161 4 West Virginia 4119 5 New Mexico 4079 6 Tennessee 4057 7 Arkansas 4003 8 New Jersey 3908 9 Louisiana 3874 10 Michigan 3851 11 Kentucky 3798 12 Georgia 3783 13 Florida 3781 14 Oklahoma 3737 15 Nevada 3725 16 New York 3704 17 Pennsylvania 3679 18 Indiana 3664

19 South Carolina 3560 20 Missouri 3483 21 Rhode Island 3447 22 South Dakota 3410 23 Ohio 3402 24 Montana 3292 USA Total 3269 25 Wyoming 3267 26 Iowa 3186 27 Delaware 3185 28 Connecticut 3182 29 Texas 3144 30 Massachusetts 3141 31 Illinois 3127 32 Kansas 3116 33 North Dakota 3102 34 Idaho 2891 35 Wisconsin 2614

36 Virginia 2550 37 Maryland 2541 38 North Carolina 2523 39 California 2429 40 Colorado 2428 41 Minnesota 2414 42 Nebraska 2330 43 Oregon 2020 44 New Hampshire 1980 45 District Of Columbia 1960 46 Maine 1914 47 Washington 1874 48 Alaska 1817 49 Utah 1563 50 Hawaii 1186 51 Vermont 1152 52 Puerto Rico 1511

California:

California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K

Bay Area median 104 Monterey 171 Santa Clara 119 Alameda 113 Contra Costa 113 Marin 113 Napa 104 Solano 101 Sonoma 99 San Francisco 98 San Mateo 98 Santa Cruz 96

Greater Sac median 149 Sutter 240 Amador 216 Sacramento 203 Butte 192 Placer 158 Yuba 155 Yolo 143 Sierra 133 Nevada 127 El Dorado 109 Plumas 69 Colusa 97 Alpine —

N. California median 213 Shasta 357 Tehama 309 Siskiyou 241 Glenn 236 Lassen 226 Lake 213 Del Norte 180 Trinity 163 Mendocino 143 Humboldt 108 Modoc 90

S. California median 221 Imperial 505 San Bernardino 335 Los Angeles 319 Inyo 310 Riverside 264 Orange 221 Ventura 176 San Luis Obispo 168 San Diego 157 Santa Barbara 155 Mono 42

San Joaquin median 284 Tuolumne 332 Tulare 315 Stanislaus 308 Merced 296 Kings 292 San Joaquin 292 Fresno 276 Kern 266 Calaveras 261 Madera 232 Mariposa 198 San Benito 156

Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

End of Executive Overview

World Summary:

Regional Per Capita Rate of new infections:

Regional Cumulative Death Rates

- North America includes Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland.

- Oceania [½ of 1% of the world population] includes Australia (59% of the population), Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, ...), Micronesia (Marshal Islands, ...), and Polynesia (New Zealand, Samoa, ... )

All Countries: Total cases per day

Place	Popu- lation M	Cases	Deaths	Cases		Deaths
		Total	Total	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M
Europe	748	102,488,473	1,568,273	13.7%	150	2,097
UK	68	15,066,395	151,612	22.2%	183	2,230
Germany	84	7,885,229	116,098	9.4%	76	1,382
France	65	13,569,675	126,721	20.8%	421	1,941
Italy	60	8,356,514	140,548	13.8%	279	2,327
Russia ‡	146	10,747,125	319,911	7.4%	125	2,191
Ireland	5	1,078,181	6,035	21.5%	423	1,202
Israel	9	1,718,989	8,298	18.5%	393	892
S. America	435	42,651,273	1,197,438	9.8%	61	2,753
Brazil	214	22,927,203	620,847	10.7%	32	2,901
Columbia	52	5,475,904	130,731	10.5%	57	2,514
N America*	595	77,705,633	1,273,825	13.1%	148	2,141
United States	334	66,209,535	872,086	19.8%	236	2,611
Mexico	131	4,302,069	301,107	3.3%	22	2,302
Canada	38	2,717,982	31,317	7.1%	97	820
Asia	4,461	89,335,098	1,269,492	2.0%	9	285
China	1,439	104,745	4,636	0.01%	0	3
India †	1,391	36,850,962	485,780	2.6%	12	349
S. Korea	51	687,984	6,281	1.3%	7	123
Taiwan	24	17,692	851	0.1%	0.3	35
Africa	1,341	10,425,479	233,744	0.8%	3	174
South Africa	60	3,552,043	93,117	5.9%	11	1,552
Botswana	2	237,678	2,514	9.8%	47	1,039
Oceana	42	1,803,984	4,921	4.3%	250	117
Australia	26	1,632,958	2,627	6.3%	423	101
New Zealand	5	15,001	52	0.3%	1	10

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.
* Central America, the Caribbean and Greenland are considered part of North America.

    Estimated % counted
United States 63% 
Mexico        35%
W. Europe     70-80%
Russia        18%

See estimated actual death counts at U. Washington Study below.
The major countries (population > 10 million) with the highest death rate are.

Peru    6,002  Bulgaria 4,331  Hungary 3,868  
Czechia 3,242  Romania  3,041  Brazil  2,874

‡ If you adjust for the undercounting in Mexico and Russia their rates would be:
Mexico 4,862 deaths per million
Russia 8,358 deaths per million

Regional Death Rates: S. America 2,732; N. America 1,999; Europe 1,968
Asia, Africa and Oceana all have less than 300 deaths per million.
New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all had less than 100 deaths per million.

† A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

Because Asia and Africa account for 76% of the world population but only 23% of the deaths we don’t compute a world rate. There are smaller countries in Asia and Africa who's infection and death rates are similar to other developed countries.

See World Countries Cumulative Cases and Deaths below
See US States Cumulative Deaths below

Data Accuracy

The most complete study to date was released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 5th 2022
14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
They measured the increase in the death toll, which was COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society). e.g. lack of access to ERs and intensive care.

Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

It shows that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million, more than double the official death toll of 6 million.
Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society).
Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The production of these estimates is a result of a global collaboration supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and country consultations. with over 30 researchers from around the world.

See more from the WHO.

Previous Studies:

Almost 60% of U.S. Has Been Infected by COVID-19, CDC Says;
Researchers looked at the presence of coronavirus antibodies to estimate the rate of infection.
During September 2021–February 2022, a convenience sample of blood specimens submitted for clinical testing was analyzed every 4 weeks for anti-N antibodies. the median sample size per 4-week period was 73,869 .
It indicated 57.7% of Americans had been infected.
Official infections reported were 80.5 Million or 24% of the population, i.e. only 42% of infections were reported.
See WebMD
The report was published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, April 29, 2022

Davis, CA Wastewater testing indicates that in June 2022 only 20% of cases were reported compared to January 2022. See

"COVID’s true death toll: much higher than official records" | Nature March 10, 2022 compares data at the end of 2021 from The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist Jan 31, 2022 and The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist May 2022

	OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
Asia	1,431,831	30.6	6.4m to 15m	140 to 330	+700%
Europe (incl. EU)	1,828,826	244.2	3.1m to 3.3m	410 to 430	+70%
Africa	253,293	18.4	1.1m to 3.3m	79 to 240	+1,000%
Latin America and Caribbean	1,694,146	257.2	2.4m to 2.7m	370 to 410	+50%
European Union	1,083,086	242.2	1.2m to 1.4m	280 to 300	+20%
North America	1,039,020	280.1	1.2m to 1.4m	320 to 370	+20%
Oceania	11,225	26.0	−1.9k to 30k	−4.5 to 70	−50%

By Country: (Examples)

	OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS	PER 100,000		ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS	PER 100,000	ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
India	524,181	37.6		2.2m to 9.7m	160 to 700	+1,000%
Russia	369,644	253.3		1.2m to 1.3m	820 to 890	+200%
United States	998,997	300.1		1.2m to 1.3m	350 to 400	+20%
Pakistan	30,375	13.5		390k to 1.1m	170 to 500	+2,700%
Indonesia	156,396	56.6		360k to 1.1m	130 to 410	+400%
Brazil	664,750	310.6		770k to 820k	360 to 380	+20%
Mexico	324,465	249.1		670k to 760k	520 to 580	+100%
Bangladesh	29,127	17.5		260k to 760k	160 to 460	+1,800%
China	5,203	0.4		−330k to 1.9m	−23 to 130	+8,500%
Poland	116,164	307.3		180k to 190k	480 to 500	+60%
Turkey	98,870	116.3		180k to 490k	210 to 580	+300%
Britain	177,088	259.6		140k to 160k	210 to 230	−20%
Germany	137,184	163.5		110k to 130k	130 to 160	−10%
Italy	164,846	273.1		200k to 230k	320 to 380	+30%
Peru	212,968	638.4		220k to 220k	660 to 670	+4%

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME),
reported deaths are significantly lower than actual deaths. Around the World they are half the actual rate.

Some examples Estimated % counted. See below.
United States 63%
Mexico 35%
W. Europe 70-80%
Russia 18%

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
-Countries with the highest actual (estimated) death rates, March 2020 to May 2021

	Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Deaths per M	Death Rate Rank*	Pop M
3	Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746	19	130
4	Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787	10	214
5	Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066	17	146
6	United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075	12	68
7	Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912	11	60
8	Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051	6	85
9	Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635	4	104
10	South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676	8	60
11	Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963	15	38
12	Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547	18	33
13	Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184	13	44
1	United States	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722	9	333
14	France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029	5	65
15	Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647	7	47
16	Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437	3	84
17	Indonesia	118,796	47,150	40%	438	1	271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates.
	Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910	14	11
	Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970	16	10
	Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600	20	7

* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed in the IHME report.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
1,000 deaths per 100,000 is 1% of the population.

A Wall Street Journal Report in July 2021 says that the actual death count in India is is between 3.4 and 4.7 million, 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported.
With a population of 1.4 billion that would give India over 3,000 deaths per million and raise Asia's deaths per Million to over 1,000.

"Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic a study by Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics published in the Lancet March 10, 2022 . They found,
"Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5.94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18.2 million (95% uncertainty interval) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120.3 deaths per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4.07 million), the USA (1.13 million ), Russia (1.07 million ), Mexico (798), Brazil (792 000), Indonesia 736,000 , and Pakistan 664,000"

At Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis - The Lancet, Published in April 2022,
They looked at global data from the start of the Pandemic to November 2021 with information from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and others, they estimate that over 40% of the global population was infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021.

Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said on "Face the Nation", April 2022,
"We are probably only picking up 1 in 7 or 8 infections, because people are using home tests which never get reported."

More World Data

CDC Map

January 23, 2022
US States where I have friends and family.

Place	Popu- lation M	Cases		Deaths		Cases		Deaths		% Fully vacc- inated
		Total	New	Total	New	% of popu- lation	New /100K	Total /1M	New /1M
United States	333	70,206,220	579,433	862,494	1870	21.1%	174	2,590	5.6	64%
New Jersey	8.9	2,067,692	10,455	30,759	96	23.2%	117	3,456	10.8	72%
New York	19.5	4,832,399	27,804	63,824	230	24.8%	143	3,273	11.8	74%
Massachusetts	6.9	1,536,256	11,354	21,402	51	22.3%	165	3,102	7.4	76%
Pennsylvania	12.8	2,572,500	16,254	39,538	131	20.1%	127	3,089	10.2	65%
Illinois	12.7	2,773,362	18,640	33,446	101	21.8%	147	2,634	8.0	66%
Florida	21.5	5,351,391	30,795	63,576	8	24.9%	143	2,957	0.4	65%
California	39.5	7,450,319	85,930	78,870	107	18.9%	218	1,997	2.7	68%
Nevada	3.1	614,505	4,268	8,736	4	19.8%	138	2,818	1.3	58%
Arizona	7.3	1,752,552	20,397	25,623	59	24.0%	279	3,510	8.1	58%

See State Death Rates
See US Epicenters
Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021

California County Cumulative Deaths per 100,000 by Region - May 5, 2022
United States - 306 deaths/100K, California 230 deaths/100K

Bay Area median 104 Monterey 171 Santa Clara 119 Alameda 113 Contra Costa 113 Marin 113 Napa 104 Solano 101 Sonoma 99 San Francisco 98 San Mateo 98 Santa Cruz 96

Greater Sac median 149 Sutter 240 Amador 216 Sacramento 203 Butte 192 Placer 158 Yuba 155 Yolo 143 Sierra 133 Nevada 127 El Dorado 109 Plumas 69 Colusa 97 Alpine —

N. California median 213 Shasta 357 Tehama 309 Siskiyou 241 Glenn 236 Lassen 226 Lake 213 Del Norte 180 Trinity 163 Mendocino 143 Humboldt 108 Modoc 90

S. California median 221 Imperial 505 San Bernardino 335 Los Angeles 319 Inyo 310 Riverside 264 Orange 221 Ventura 176 San Luis Obispo 168 San Diego 157 Santa Barbara 155 Mono 42

San Joaquin median 284 Tuolumne 332 Tulare 315 Stanislaus 308 Merced 296 Kings 292 San Joaquin 292 Fresno 276 Kern 266 Calaveras 261 Madera 232 Mariposa 198 San Benito 156

Source: California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

North Central California Counties

North Central Califronia Counties Map
Counties where I have friends and family.
Cumulative to Sept 24, 2022

	Deaths per 100,000	Cases per 100,000	Vaccinated
United States	317	28,875	68%
California	243	28,423	74%
Bay area
Santa Clara ›	129	23,242	88%
Contra Costa ›	123	23,277	83%
Alameda ›	121	21,838	84%
Marin ›	120	19,360	91%
San Francisco ›	117	21,428	86%
Napa ›	116	24,330	80%
San Mateo ›	108	23,177	86%
Sonoma ›	105	22,578	80%
Solano ›	103	25,040	70%
Greater Sacramento
Sutter ›	242	27,498	62%
Sacramento ›	222	24,371	69%
Placer ›	166	21,275	69%
Sierra ›	166	12,080	—
Yolo ›	152	23,362	72%
El Dorado ›	120	18,875	64%

The 10 counties who voted for Biden in 2020 averaged a total of 1,203 deaths per million over the course of the virus as of March 12, 2022 compared to the 2 counties who voted for Trump which average averaged 1,870 deaths per million (55% higher).

* Sierra County had only 12 new cases from Feb 15, 2021 to July 4, 2021 with a 7 day average of close to 0.
At the beginning of july, the beginning of September and middle of October they had an outbreak raising the 7-day average to 3 cases per day making the rate per 100,000 100 cases per day.
With a population of just over 3,000 a small outbreak results in a high rate (new cases per 100,000)
But their cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is the lowest of all counties represented here.

New Cases per day per 100,000
For reference, in January California had over 100 new cases per day per 100,000 and Los Angeles Co was over 150.

World Stats:

Coronavirus Dashboard | ncov2019.live

* New cases and deaths are 7-day moving-averages to adjust for the impact of administrative delays to reporting new data over weekends.

Numbers are significantly undercounted. See estimated actual counts above.

NY Times Map
COVID-19 International Travel Recommendations by Destination | CDC

Note: We have limited our statistics to the 122 countries with more than 5 million population. There are smaller countries with higher per-capita rates.

% Vaccinated:

Aug 29
39.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

Those who are vaccinated are about six times less likely to contract the virus and 14 times less likely to die from it.

COVID World Vaccination Tracker | NY Times
Vaccine doses vs % vaccinated. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses to be fully vaccinated. So, in the US on July 14 there were 101 doses per 100 administered, but only 48% were fully vaccinated.

Deaths:

New Cases driven by largest countries.

Spikes in Daily Cases:(Excluding the US and India)
Fomn

Cumulative Deaths World

Note: A report published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief economic advisor, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University said the actual number of deaths in India was likely between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. This is 10 times higher than the 400,000 reported, so would put India at the top of the list of death rates.

1,000 deaths per million is 0.1% of the population.

World Total Deaths:

* A July 20th report suggests that India alone could actually have 4 million deaths instead of the 460,000 reported, increasing the world total to 8 Million.
See India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions WSJ

Most estimates for the 1918 Flu range from 17 -50 million with , with a couple of higher and lower estimates.

Actual Total Deaths (estimated)
According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

-Countries with the highest numbers of actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, March 2020 to May 2021

	Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Actual Deaths per M	Death Rate Rank*	Pop M
1	United States of America	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722	9	333
2	India	654,395	221,181	34%	470	2	1391
3	Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746	19	130
4	Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787	10	214
5	Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066	17	146
6	United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075	12	68
7	Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912	11	60
8	Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051	6	85
9	Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635	4	104
10	South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676	8	60
11	Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963	15	38
12	Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547	18	33
13	Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184	13	44
14	France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029	5	65
15	Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647	7	47
16	Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437	3	84
17	Indonesia	118,796	47,150	40%	438	1	271
The IHME report also listed some smaller countries with a high death rate. Here are some with the highest death rates.
	Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910	14	11
	Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970	16	10
	Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600	20	7

* Rank of actual deaths per 100,000 from lowest to highest for only the countries listed here.

Note: There are several other smaller countries with higher total death rates.
e.g. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 6010; Azerbaijan - 6730
100 deaths per 100,000 is 0.1% of the population.

23 Countries of Interest - Infection Rates

See also COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory - Wikipedia

Countries with the highest peak infection rates out of the 125 largest countries (population > 5 M),
Some smaller countries have a higher rate.
You can click on the chart to go to the current interactive version, where you can move the sliders at the bottom to zero in on a specific time period and hover over a date to get the list of values on that date.
You can add countries by entering it in the upper left.

Per Million:

Peak 7-day average new cases per Million
Note: There is under-counting of deaths by a factor of 3 in several countries, so case counts are probably low also.

Country	Date	New Cases
North America	Jan 12, 2021	470
Europe	Nov 2, 2020	370
South America	June 3, 2021	334
Asia	May 5, 2021	107
Africa	Jan 11,2021	24
Belgium	Oct 30, 2020	1,536
Ireland	Jan 10, 2021	1,323
Portugal	Jan 28, 2021	1,264
Israel	Sept 14, 2021	1,254
Czechia	10/27/20	1,200
Hungary	03/26/21	960
Botswana	08/07/21	946
United Kingdom	Jan 10, 2021	881
France	Nov 3, 2020	832
Austria	11/14/20	806
Spain	Jan 26, 2021	791
United States	Jan 11, 2021	757
Argentina	june 1, 2021	728
Turkey	Apr 21, 2021	714
Nambia	06/30/21	695
Italy	Nov 13, 2020	578
Italy	Nov 13, 2020	578
Columbia	June 6, 2021	527
Sweden	May 4, 2021	500
Costa Rica	May 18, 2021	483
South Africa	Jan 11, 2021	321
Germany	Dec 22, 2020	306
Peru	04/13/21	297
India	May 6, 2021	282
Canada	Apr 16, 2021	232
Russia	May 13, 2021	193
Mexico	Dec 24, 2020	81

Total:

Note: There are small countries (< 5 Million population) with more cases and deaths per million.
See Worldmeter and click on headings to sort.

Reported deaths (below) range from 34% to 70% of actual deaths according to the U. of Washington. See above. Worldwide they are double of what is reported.

According to a May 2021 study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), reported deaths is significantly lower than actual deaths.
Around the World they are double what is reported.

The IHME report only included some of the countries with large numbers. Actual (estimated) total COVID-19 deaths, xgxg020 to May 2021

Country	Estimated Actual Total	Reported Total	Reported % of Actual	Deaths per M
Bulgaria	38,640	16,905	44%	5,600
Mexico	617,127	217,694	35%	4,746
Peru	147,765	62,739	42%	4,547
Russian Federation	593,610	109,334	18%	4,066
Hungary	38,787	28,919	75%	3,970
Poland	149,855	68,237	46%	3,963
Czechia	41,446	29,574	71%	3,910
Ukraine	138,507	46,737	34%	3,184
United Kingdom	209,661	150,519	72%	3,075
Italy	175,832	121,257	69%	2,912
Brazil	595,903	408,680	69%	2,787
United States of America	905,289	574,043	63%	2,722
South Africa	160,452	54,390	34%	2,676
Spain	123,786	85,365	69%	2,647
Iran	174,177	72,906	42%	2,051
France	132,680	105,506	80%	2,029
Egypt	170,041	13,529	8%	1,635
Germany	120,729	83,256	69%	1,437
India	654,395	221,181	34%	470

See more about excessive deaths above.

Omicron Spread

Source: What omicron's fast spread could mean | NPR Dec 10

Source: Worldmeter

Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others? | The New Yorker Feb. 22, 2021
Summary Here.
Other countries -
See also: OurWorldinData
Source: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country - Wikipedia
892 in the US is about 0.1%

Test Positivity Rate
Experts advise looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths to understand what is going on.
Test Positivity Rate is important because a high positivity rate probably means that the case count is low. See Positivity Rate.
WHO guidelines want it to be below 5%. When a positivity rate is higher, epidemiologists start worrying that means only sicker people have access to tests and a city or region is missing mild or asymptomatic cases.

Testing and Positivity | Johns Hopkins

See Positivity Rate for more.

Daily tests per thousand

See More International Stats

United States:

See Epicenters
CDC COVID Data Tracker

COVID was the leading cause of death in the United States in January 2021:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC
The average percent of COVID-19 deaths from Mar. 21, 2020 to May 22, 2021 was 14.4%.
That made it #3 behind heart disease (28%) and cancer (25%) as cause of death.
Note: These are the 2019 rates for heart disease and cancer.
They may be lower in 2020 because people weakened from these diseases may have succumbed to COVID first. I don't know how the CDC counts someone who dies of heart disease because of stress from COVID.
See Cause of Death

See 1918 Flu

"

Total Deaths per 1 Million Sept 25

1 Mississippi 4327 2 Arizona 4304 3 Alabama 4161 4 West Virginia 4119 5 New Mexico 4079 6 Tennessee 4057 7 Arkansas 4003 8 New Jersey 3908 9 Louisiana 3874 10 Michigan 3851 11 Kentucky 3798 12 Georgia 3783 13 Florida 3781 14 Oklahoma 3737 15 Nevada 3725 16 New York 3704 17 Pennsylvania 3679 18 Indiana 3664

19 South Carolina 3560 20 Missouri 3483 21 Rhode Island 3447 22 South Dakota 3410 23 Ohio 3402 24 Montana 3292 USA Total 3269 25 Wyoming 3267 26 Iowa 3186 27 Delaware 3185 28 Connecticut 3182 29 Texas 3144 30 Massachusetts 3141 31 Illinois 3127 32 Kansas 3116 33 North Dakota 3102 34 Idaho 2891 35 Wisconsin 2614

36 Virginia 2550 37 Maryland 2541 38 North Carolina 2523 39 California 2429 40 Colorado 2428 41 Minnesota 2414 42 Nebraska 2330 43 Oregon 2020 44 New Hampshire 1980 45 District Of Columbia 1960 46 Maine 1914 47 Washington 1874 48 Alaska 1817 49 Utah 1563 50 Hawaii 1186 51 Vermont 1152 52 Puerto Rico 1511

Note: 1,000 deaths per 1 Million is 0.1%
Source: Worldmeter

I moved back to California from New Jersey a couple of years ago. In April my friends in New Jersey had 10 times the chance of encountering a person with COVID-19 than I did in California. In July the numbers have flipped with California having 6 times and Florida 12 times the incidence of NJ.
By the end of November the average rate for the whole country was 5 times higher than it was in April.
In July 2020 because of their new case rates and population, Florida, Texas and California accounted for 19% of all new cases in the world and more than a third of the new cases in the U.S. with a total of 27,574 new cases per day recorded.
Case rates in those states droped by 2/3 in September.
in January 2021 the U.S. accounted for 34% of all new cases in the world.
In April 2021 the world hit a record of 823,439 new cases, 41% from India.
See World leaders.

chart

States with rates 50% higher than the national average are in bold.
In January there were only a couple of outliers so we bolded the top 10.

State	Daily New Cases per 100,000
	Spring 2020 Peak	Jul 15	Sep 8	Oct 8	Nov 2	Dec 2	Jan 4 2021	Feb 3	Mar 3	Apr 7	Jun 6	Jul 17	Aug 14	Sep 9	Oct 5	Nov 12	Dec 20	Jan 14 2022	Feb 12	Apr 8
US	10	20	10	15	24	50	66	45	19	19	4	9	39	44	30	23	47	243	71	9
New York	51	4	6	7	10	37	71	53	32	34	3	3	21	27	29	35	80	324	41	21
New Jersey	39	4	6	8	18	46	49	51	34	47	3	4	19	22	20	15	74	289	34	18
Michigan	16	6		11	35	72	27	17	14	70	4	2	14	23	40	37	63	183	53	7
Pennsylvania	13				18	53	56	42	20	33	4	2	16	28	37	37	57	219	44	6
California	3	20	11	8	10	37	96	42	11	7	2	6	31	16	10	16	19	300	88	8
Florida	6	56	13	12	20	39	62	46	25	24	9	30	101	66	19	7	40	286	88	8
Arizona	4	51	8	9	19	62	112	64	16	9	5	12	38	38	38	47	40	232	97	10
Texas	3	37	13	13	20	38	63	70	25	10	4	9	50	62	27	10	23	214	76	9
Idaho		37	16	28	45	70	50							55	84	28	18	101	138	3
North Dakota		13	38	60	139	89	26	24						55	81	64	41	217	121	5
South Dakota			27	55	134	100	48	43							42	36	39	222
Wisconsin		14	15	43	80	70	44								53	52	69	274
Iowa			24	29	66	64	43								45	41	48	158
Utah		20	13	33	55	86	85	43			7	16	31		44	40	0	304
Montana			12	42	77	79	36								84	46	0		126
Nebraska			14	29	60	93	50			25						44	0	207
Wyoming				25	61	93	38				9	14	45	80		43	0	163
Minnesota			12	20	46	115	34			34					49	64	56
Rhode Island				15	42	114	96	51	35	28						23	120	486		25
New Mexico				14	38	88	59									50	52
Indiana				18	44	87	71										64
Nevada				16	27	75	68					23	35				0
Ohio						67	64								47	37	79	230
Tennessee						72	93	40	19				56	74			0		94
Kansas							85	36				14	41				54	271
Oklahoma							84	52				15	54	59			0
Arkansas							86	51	28	5		34	74	56			0	297
Georgia							80	51	28	12			54	73			0
South Carolina							75	67	21				61	92	41		0	291	112
North Carolina							68	52	23	15			49	36			0	255
Colorado										25	10	6				54	0	260		26
Washington	7										8	9					0		110	12
Missouri												31	45
Louisiana												26	126	50			0	271
mississippi												12	110	65			0	231	156
Alabama												14	81	77			0
Alaska														83	121	59	0	258	170	28
W. Virginia														85	75	43	0		135
Kentucky														89	57	21	0		154	12
Vermont																58	82	286		27
New hampshire																42	90		74	11
Illinois																	80	233		12
Maine																	70		150	15
Massachusetts																	80	303		20
Delaware																		342		9
West Virginia
Connecticut																				14

Source: Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times Pro-Trump counties now have three times the COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame | NPR Dec. 2021

California

:

See the See Timeline for a history of infection rates and the tier system October 2020 - June 2021 (Alpha surge).

---

Cumulative Deaths:

Bay Area Region vs Other Regions

A LA Times report said that in January 2022 the death rate in southern California was 3 times higher than the Bay Area.

The Bay Area in California has traditionally had the second lowest rate of California's 5 regions behind the Northern California region and was usually lower than the State rate. As of May 2022 the Bay Area cumulative death rate over the life of COVID was about half the other regions. See above.
As of May 2022 it has the highest new case rate rate. It is still lower than historical rates.

See Current Region data above.

I Had a theory that the regions which had higher rates in the past have developed a herd immunity.
However, as of the end of July Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley were back on top with the highest rates, so that theory doesn't hold.
My new theory is that areas with the highest inter-state and international visitors are affected first. That was the case in the North East states also.

The CDC sampled blood for antibodies from September 2021 to February 2022 and concluded that almost 60% of Americans had been infected, which is much higher than the 24% of cases reported, so we would be approaching heard immunity numbers. However the frequent mutations in the omicron variant messes up the heard immunity theory.

North Central Califronia Counties Map

See county data below.

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CA Current notes:
See News from the Governor's Office - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response
Vaccination News below
More links below.

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Tracking COVID-19 in California - ca-gov

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Holiday surge: 2020

The increase of infections after holidays confirms the dangers of personal social gatherings.
There is a drop in infections durring the holidays because of reduced testing. Johns Hopkins University reported a high of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had dropped to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day.

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California Links:
COVID-19 | California Department of Public Health
ASC Building Products   News Releases 2020 | CDPH.ca.gov
covid19.ca.gov
  About COVID-19 restrictions - covid19.ca.gov
  Blueprint for a Safer Economy - covid19.ca.gov

California | The COVID Tracking Project

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North Central California Counties

Average new cases per day per 100,000 .
June 2021 -

	06/05 2021	07/15	08/14	9/3	11/1	1/7	2/1	2/25	3/12	4/2	5/6	5/27	8/18	9/29	10/21	11/11	12/10	1/13 2023	2/1	3/3
United States	4.2	9.3	39	50	20	195	126	22	10	7	21	33	29	14	11	12	20	18	13	10	United States
California	2.3	8.7	34	35	15	166	148	26	11	6	19	39	29	12	8	10	29	16	9	9	California
Bay Area																					Bay Area
San Francisco				22	7	167	87	32	8	14	42	59	22	10	8	16	27	14	8	12	San Francisco
San Mateo	1.3	6.4	21	23	8	174	109	23	13	11	37	61	23	10	10	14	28	14	7	9	San Mateo
Santa Clara	1.3	5.1	18	25	8	163	133	22	10	11	33	59	26	10	9	10	33	16	10	10	Santa Clara
Alameda							119	18	10	9	26	50	19	9	7	10	28	15	7	12	Alameda
Contra-Costa											25	50	27	9	10	9	28	16	7	15	Contra-Costa
Napa	1.4	5.1	25	26	8	149	117	28	19	6	23	37	24	9	10	2	19	14	10	9	Napa
Marin											31	60	18	7	7	2	19	11	8	9	Marin
Sanoma						182	139	26	17	8	29	46	19	9	9	6	17	13	6	8	Sanoma
Solano	1.3	10	27	66	11	120	122	49	13	6	20	50	22	8	7	5	23	16	9	10	Solano
Greater Sacramento																					Greater Sacramento
Yolo	1.8	6.3	33	44	18	159	102	19	11	11	20	43	26	5	9	13	16	9	7	8	Yolo
Sacramento	0.3	11.7	39	73	14	117	121	25	10	7	15	38	24	9	10	10	21	11	9	10	Sacramento
Placer	1.3	8.3	37	77	24	91	109	24	8	4	12	34	19	7	7	8	19	11	7	8	Placer
Sutter		13.4	60	72	22	99	110	26	22	8	11	29	30	11	6	6	16	16	5	6	Sutter
El Dorado											11	30	16	6	5	10	19	10	5	5	El Dorado
Sierra							0	16	3	0	5	14	10	0	5	13	0	5	0	0	Sierra
Davis				18	4	212†	41	10	6	4

On January 10, 2022 Davis had an average of 210 new cases per day per 100,000, higher than Yolo Co, California and the US.
Davis typically had one of the 2 lowest rates of new infections in the 10 states and 12 counties in California that I follow, But in January 7 2022 it had the 2nd highest rate.
I attribute that to 35,000 undergraduate students at UC Davis (30% of the population) who returned to Davis after the Christmas Hollidays, where they were exposed in family gatherings and mass transit on the trip back. If 150 of the 210 cases (15 day average on 1/7) were students that would 0.4% of students.

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Bay Area & Sac Area (partial) County Case Rates:

"
County stats

Why are the cases per 100K different in the NY Times report and the California State report? (Yolo and San Mateo below)
I don't know why the Times shows higher numbers per 100K than the state data below (only San Mateo and Yolo are shown but numbers are higher for all counties).
I sent the Times a question, but haven't heard back.

Both numbers are probably low because of many cases not being reported.
See Davis Wastewater Testing below.

Cumulative to Sept 24, 2022

	Deaths per 100,000	Cases per 100,000	Vaccinated
United States	317	28,875	68%
California	243	28,423	74%
Bay area
Santa Clara ›	129	23,242	88%
Contra Costa ›	123	23,277	83%
Alameda ›	121	21,838	84%
Marin ›	120	19,360	91%
San Francisco ›	117	21,428	86%
Napa ›	116	24,330	80%
San Mateo ›	108	23,177	86%
Sonoma ›	105	22,578	80%
Solano ›	103	25,040	70%
Greater Sacramento
Sutter ›	242	27,498	62%
Sacramento ›	222	24,371	69%
Placer ›	166	21,275	69%
Sierra ›	166	12,080	—
Yolo ›	152	23,362	72%
El Dorado ›	120	18,875	64%

San Mateo County

San Mateo County coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak - Los Angeles Times
San Mateo County Health
Average cases per day and per 100,000 30 days as of Aug 18

City	Pop- ulation	Av. Cases per day		Current 7-day
		Total	per 100K
US	331M		19	29
California	39.5M		16	29
San Mateo Co	743,331		45	14
Colma	1,302	2.2	166
East Palo Alto	29,593	22.3	75
North Fair Oaks	14,374	8.8	61
South San Francisco	67,402	36.6	54
Daly City	106,668	56.2	53
San Bruno	43,086	20.6	48
Redwood City	85,784	40.1	47
Broadmore	5,171	2.4	46
Brisbane	4,696	2.1	45
Woodside	5,544	2.4	44
Millbrae	22,631	9.8	43
Burlingame	30,573	12.6	41
Pacifica	38,975	16.0	41
San Carlos	30,159	12.2	41
San Mateo	104,343	41.7	40
Belmont	27,103	10.4	38
Menlo Park	34,137	12.7	37
Foster City	33,987	11.3	33
Ladera	1,607	0.5	31
Half Moon Bay	12,833	3.7	29
Portola Valley	4,594	1.3	28
Atherton	7,166	2.0	28
Hillsborough	11,451	3.1	27
Emerald Hills	4,722	1.2	25
West Menlo Park	4,161	1.0	23
Midcoast Region	11,271	2.3	20

* Midcoast Region - The area between Pacifica and Half Moon Bay including, Montara (2,909), Moss Beach & Seal Cove (3.236), Princeteon-by-the Sea (297), El Granada (5,483), and Miramar.

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Yolo County

Sources: [7-day average case count]

• COVID-19 | Yolo County (833) 744-4472 *
• Yolo County Covid Dashboards - Embed State Website | California Department of Public Health (CDPH) CA.gov [7]
• Yolo County coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak - Los Angeles Times [44*]
• California Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times [21]

* LA Times may report total for 7-days not the per-day-average.

Yolo Co. Covid-data-tracker| CDC

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Davis:

Yolo County no longer lists Davis Stats.

City Wastewater Data

Healthy Davis Together Historic Wastewater Testing

In January, Yolo County had 248 new cases per 100,000 reported and Davis had 212. Davis rates have traditionally been lower than Yolo County.
On Nov 7th Yolo County had 8 new cases reported per 100,000, 3% of the peak, but Davis wastewater counts were 23% of the peak.
So about 13% of cases are being reported.
The general explination for this is:
1. More asymptomatic cases which are not reported.
2. People doing self testing with mild symptoms which are not reported.

This along with an April, 2022 CDC report indicated that almost 60% of the U.S. population has been infected. means that as of June only about 10% of infections were being counted.

Although wastewater indicates a high level of infection at the end of August, Yolo county hospitalizations are 20% of what they were in January. California hospitalizations were 25% of January's.

Bay Area Wastewater
Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network (SCAN) tracking - Stanford

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Links to County Dashboards.

California, San Francisco Co, Santa Clara, Santa Clara Co, San Mateo, Alameda Co, Alameda, Sierra, Yolo, Yolo Co, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Sutter Co, Solano County Public Health Dashboards, Coronavirus Report for Napa County, CA - LiveStories, Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Napa County, CA, Sacramento, Placer, Sarasota County, Florida | USAFacts, Washoe Co. NV

Other Links:
Coronavirus tracker | Mercury News

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Other

Old News

• June 14 - The CDC declared the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given when there is increased evidence of factors such as transmissibility or severity or reduced effectiveness of vaccines or treatments. See the Delta variant in facts.
• June 3 - The W.H.O. warned of a surge of new infections in Africa, which could set off a third wave for the continent as winter arrives.
• June 1 A new surge in Latin America has been attributed to the spread of the Brazil variant.
• May 31 - 42% of the US population are fully vaccinated.
  52% of the California population are fully vacinated.
  8% of Canadians are fully vaccinated.
  Fully vaccinated in Europe: UK 37%; Spain 19%; Italy 19%; Germany 17%; France 16%; Russia 8%
  According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Only 3% of the regional population in Latin America are fully vacinated. as of May 19.
  Vaccination rate by country | Americas Society-Council of the Americas June 1
  Chile 44%; Brazil 11%; Argentina 6%; Columbia 6%;
• May 9 - New cases in india levels off and the world's new cases is declining.
• April 21- India India had 265,000 new cases per day driving the world total over 800,000 new cases. The previous country high was the US which had 251,000 new cases per day on January 8th.
• April 16 - The COVID death toll freached 3 million deaths worldwide.
              1918 Flu - 17-50 million deaths
• March 15 - Surge in Michigan, Minneasota and the North East US
• March 10 - Cases are increasing in Europe and Latin America.

Risk-Assessment
Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected which was documented in nature research in October, 2020.
. S>
You specify the group size and an ascertainment bias of 5 or 10. i.e. actual infections are 5 to 10 times higher than what is reported and get a risk probability.
See COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

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Objective:
I was tired of the media only reporting total cases, it's meaningless for me. 1,000 new cases in Nevada is significant, 1,000 in California is not.
I want to know the probability of meeting someone in the grocery store with coronavirus. To get that I need the Attack Rate, how many people are infected per 100,000 population.
I have gone thru several iterations concentrating on death rates in the beginning because case rates were unreliable from the lack of testing.
In "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States" | Nature Communications Sept 2020, They estimate the actual number of infections from February to April, 2020 was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But it turns out only 18% - 80% of actual deaths are counted.
See U. Washington study.

I eventually found web sites that were reporting most of data I was interested in, shown here, you can click on charts to get current versions.

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

Joshua SA. Weitz at Georgie Tech developed a tool to assess the risk that one (or more) individuals in a group was infected.
See Risk Assessment

We are concentrating on trends now from the world down to some towns in California. Where are the outbreaks, relative size of the them, history of safety plans etc..
Also listing death rates, hospitilazions and positivity rate where possible.
See more at rational.

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Rational:
I started counting cases, but at the advice of my, Son, a medical journal editor, I changed this to report deaths which is likely more accurate than cases.
Case numbers are under reported because of a lack of testing, pre-symptomatic, and non-symptomatic people, which vary by location.
There are issues with death counts too, but fewer than with case counts.
See Deaths vs Cases.
After the Surge in the Southwestern US at the end of June, I started counting cases again, because of better testing and the 2 week lag between cases and deaths. Also the death rate is going down,

  There are other measurements that would be helpful in understanding the progress of the epidemic in different places, such as the number of new hospitalizations, the number of tests administered or the number of people showing any symptoms of respiratory illness. But confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, however incomplete, are the most useful daily statistics currently available at a local level everywhere in the country.
Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases by one to two weeks.

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Sources:

• Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC - Updated frequently

• WHO - World Health Organization: Disease Outbreak News (DONs) | Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19) - Mar 9, 2020 -

• Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center - Updated frequently

• Coronavirus FAQ's by Dr. Megan Murray (Harvard Infectious Disease specialist) | Abundance Foundation - Mar 9, 2020
  Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health - - Updated frequently

• Science Friday:
  Seasrch for CORONA - Science Friday
• Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment

• The numbers - Statistics - Charts

• The big picture - Coronavirus Dashboard | nCoV2019.live
  
• United States Coronavirus: - Worldometer
• Charts
  Coronavirus Update (Live) - Worldometer
  
• Our World in Data
• U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker | Act Now
• COVID-19 statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth
• How is the Economy Doing? | USA Facts
• 
• 
• 
• 
• Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries reopen | Financial Times
  
• Coronavirus chart: has your country's epidemic peaked? | Financial Times
  
• The COVID Tracking Project | The COVID Tracking Project
  
• COVID-19 Projections

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Some twitter feeds I found useful:
Coronavirus: The Most Essential People To Follow On Twitter During The COVID-19 Outbreak | Forbes
(2) Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) / Twitter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine
Eric Topol (@EricTopol) / Twitter physician-scientist, author, editor, Sripps
@DrTomFrieden Former Director @CDCgov

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Other Links:
Terms - Glossary
Case Fatality Rate