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Another issue is "are we in a AI tech bubble" like the 1997-2000 .com bubble.
In the 1968 movie "2001: A Space Odyssey" HAL ,the AI computer on their space ship, sparked lot of hype about AI. It never came.
So AI can generate pictures and essays, drive cars, and carry on a conversation with you so you can't tell is a computer (i.e. pass the Turring Test) but cognitive intelligence is still a long way away.
As of today, the price-earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly lower compared to 2020, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio currently around 21-28 vs 39 in 2020.
But it is moving up.
Price/Earnings Ratio
Even though the S&P 500, a common stock benchmark, has gone up 8.6% in the last 35 years I'm sticking with the idea that the growth over my lifetime will be 7%, the average over my lifetime.
The big picture. Over my lifetime averaging out many corrections, bull and bear markets with many 30- 50% correction there have been: 23 years of long term flat markets 1963-1977 14 years - Psychological resistance to breaking 1,000 on the Dow 2000-2009 9 years - 2000 dot-com bust and 2008 financial crisis 60 years of long term growth 1935-1962 - 26 years of 9% growth 1979-1999 - 20 years av 12%/yr growth 2010-2024 - 14 years of 11% growthIf you could time the market and got out in 2020 and 2008 you would be a genius and average 11% growth.
Several of my friends have got lucky and bought one of the Magnificent 7, Apple (1980), Google (Alphabet), Nvidia (1999), Facebook (Meta) (2012), Microsoft* (2015), Amazon(2015),Tesla (2024) early in their growth cycle
* Microsoft went public in 1986 but did not take off until 2015
Company and stock ticker | Return 2024 | ||
---|---|---|---|
1-year | 5-year | 10-year | |
Alphabet (GOOG) | 35% | 183% | 673% |
Amazon (AMZN) | 51% | 156% | 1,252% |
Apple (AAPL) | 28% | 196% | 719% |
Meta Platforms (META) | 75% | 234% | 821% |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 2% | 142% | 936% |
Nvidia (NVDA) | 100% | 1,937% | 26,004% |
Tesla (TSLA) | 118% | 878% | 2,978% |