Don's Home Politics Presidential Elections 2024 Results

2024-polls | Presidential Elections | President Ratings

The AP has called this race. Trump wins

All of the battleground states flipped from Democrat to Republican: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Other states voted the same way as they did in 2020.

Trump claimed "America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,"
He got 49.99% of the popular vote.
His margin over Vice President Kamala Harris was about 1.6 percentage points, the third smallest in over 100 years.
Real landslides have been unmistakable, including Lyndon B. Johnson's in 1964 by 22.6 points, Richard M. Nixon's in 1972 by 23.2 points and Ronald Reagan's in 1984 by 18.2 points.

Margin of victory in swing states.

State	Trump	Haris	Margin
Arizona	52.2	46.7	5.5
North Carolina	51.0	47.8	3.2
Nevada	50.6	47.5	3.1
Georgia	50.7	48.5	2.2
Pennsylvania	50.4	48.7	1.7
Michigan	49.7	48.3	1.4
Wisconsin	49.7	48.8	0.9

A 2018 Gallup poll found 94% of Americans said they would vote for a woman president. i.e. 6% would not.
A lot of reasons for Trump's victory have been proposed, but sexism seems to be a significant factor.
See Female President.

Some significant changes/differences Clinton (2016), Biden (2020), Harris (2024)

See more at Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016 | CNN

The issues that decided the 2024 election | apnews

Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.Poll respondents were asked about the economy and jobs, health care, immigration, abortion, crime, climate change, foreign policy, gun policy and racism. Some of these labels have been shortened on the chart due to space constraints, including "the economy and jobs," which was shortened to "economy," and "climate change," which was shortened to "climate."

The underestimate for Trump could be for several reasons.
1. Higher turnout for young voters and their shift from a 2. People don't answer polls or lie if they are voting for Trump.

• Young men who have had a traditionally low turnout, increased their turnout.
  Young white men without college degrees, went for Trump , 56% to 40%.
  See Why young men voted for Trump below.
• Vice presidents are not very succesful. Since 1933, 15 of 18 vice presidents have launched presidential campaigns of their own after serving in the deputy role. But only five of these 15 emerged victorious:
• Democrats have been surviving off of Obama's fumes, and have not show new leadership.
• Hispanics think Trump is a racist but least he says what he thinks.
• Republican claims that were wrong. e.g. Inflation is transient, Biden does not have any aging issues...
• Propaganda works. Trump used social media and other forms of digital communication to spread false information (e.g. eating dogs) that would be used by his supporters to demonize his opponents.

Even if they disagree with TrumpÕs character, they appreciate the fact that he can get away with or say whatever he wants.

Global Market Research and Public Opinion Specialist - Ipsos found 68 percent of Republicans and 6 percent of Democrats agree that "the Democratic Party is hostile to masculine values.
"There is a lot of latent sexism in the US electorate, male and female members alike," Tammy Vigil, an associate professor of media science at the University of Boston, told AFP.
"Black and Latino men could possibly overlook the racism of the Trump campaign because Trump appealed to their sense of machismo,"

Read more at: Why young men turned out in droves for Donald Trump | EconomicTimes

Sources: NY Times, NBC News, Economic Times

Gender
For each voter group, the table displays the winner from both the 2020 and 2024 elections, expressed in percentage vote points according to exit polls. The first column highlights the change in percentage points between these two elections.

Age

Race

Education

Income

Party

Area

2024-elpias-gender.png