2020 vs 2000
New Mexico (0.8%) and Iowa (0.9%) changed from Blue to Red (Republican)
New Hampsire changed from Red to Blue (-1.3%) (Democratic with 1.3% margin)
Electoral College Votes:
| 2000 | 2020 |
| Bush | 271 | 286 |
| Gore/Kerry | 267 | 252 |
See 2020 results at CNN, Yahoo and Wikipedia.
| Party Label (Candidate 2000/2020) | 2000 | 2020 |
| Votes | % | Votes | % |
|---|
| Republican (George W. Bush) | 50,456,002 | 47.87 | 61,121,520 | 50.9 |
| Democrat (Gore/Kerry) | 50,999,897 | 48.38 | 57,781,877 | 48.1 |
| Green (Ralph Nader/Cobb) | 2,882,955 | †2.74 | 107,135 | 0.09 |
| Reform/Independent (Hagelin/Ralph Nader) | | .08 | 427,637 | 0.36 |
| Patrick J. Buchanan (Reform/Independent) | 448,895 | .42 |
| Libertarian (Harry Browne/Badnarik) | 384,431 | .36 | 392,861 | 0.33 |
| Constitution (Howard Phillips/Peroutka) | | .09 | 149,027 | 0.13 |
| Write-In (Miscellaneous) | | .02 |
James E. Harris, Jr.
(Socialist Workers) | | .01 |
| Total | 105,405,100 | | 120,070,437 |
| Turnout * | 54% | | 60% |
* Turnout - Percent of eligable voters. Recent record was 1960, when about two-thirds of eligible voters came out to back either Democrat John Kennedy or Republican Richard Nixon.
2020 Results
|
| Democratic States |
|---|
| State | ECV | Margin |
| D.C. | 3 | 80.1% |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 25.2% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 20.8% |
| Vermont | 3 | 20.2% |
| New York | 31 | 18.3% |
| Maryland | 10 | 13.0% |
| Connecticut | 7 | 10.4% |
| Illinois | 21 | 10.3% |
| California | 55 | 10.0% |
| Maine | 4 | 9.0% |
| Hawaii | 4 | 8.7% |
| Delaware | 3 | 7.6% |
| Washington | 11 | 7.2% |
| New Jersey | 15 | 6.7% |
| Oregon | 7 | 4.2% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3.5% |
| Michigan | 17 | 3.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 2.5% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1.4% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 0.4% |
| Total | 252 | |
|
| Republican States |
|---|
| State | ECV | Margin |
| Utah | 5 | 45.6% |
| Wyoming | 3 | 39.9% |
| Idaho | 4 | 38.1% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 33.3% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 31.1% |
| North Dakota | 3 | 27.4% |
| Alabama | 9 | 25.6% |
| Alaska | 3 | 25.6% |
| Kansas | 6 | 25.4% |
| Texas | 34 | 22.9% |
| South Dakota | 3 | 21.5% |
| Indiana | 11 | 20.7% |
| Montana | 3 | 20.5% |
| Kentucky | 8 | 19.9% |
| Mississippi | 6 | 18.9% |
| South Carolina | 8 | 17.1% |
| Georgia | 15 | 16.6% |
| Louisiana | 9 | 14.5% |
| Tennessee | 11 | 14.3% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 12.9% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 12.4% |
| Arizona | 10 | 10.5% |
| Arkansas | 6 | 9.8% |
| Virginia | 13 | 8.2% |
| Missouri | 11 | 7.2% |
| Florida | 27 | 5.0% |
| Colorado | 9 | 4.7% |
| Nevada | 5 | 2.6% |
| Ohio | 20 | 2.1% |
| New Mexico | 5 | 0.8% |
| Iowa | 7 | 0.7% |
| Total | 286 | 0.5 |
|
News analysis following the election found most of the media jumping on any opinion which sounded interesting. For example the election was swung by the high turnout of Evangelical Christians and the early lead reported for Kerry was because more women voted early.
Statistical data and better analysis did not show either of these to be correct.
See summary below.
Exit Poll Results:
| Group | % of
voters | Bush | Kerry | Margin |
| Bush Supporters
|
| Most Important Issue is Terrorism | 19% | 86% | 14% | 72% |
| Approve War in Iraq | 51% | 85% | 14% | 71% |
| Conservative | 34% | 84% | 15% | 69% |
| Most Important Issue is Moral Values | 22% | 80% | 18% | 62% |
| White Evangelical/Born Again | 23% | 78% | 21% | 57% |
| Abortion should be Always Illegal | 16% | 77% | 22% | 55% |
| Abortion should be Mostly Illegal | 26% | 73% | 26% | 47% |
| Same-sex couples should have No Legal Recognition | 37% | 70% | 29% | 41% |
| Government should not do more to solve problems | 49% | 70% | 29% | 41% |
| Attend church More Than Weekly | 16% | 64% | 35% | 29% |
| Gun owner in household | 41% | 63% | 36% | 27% |
| No one in household has lost a job | 67% | 61% | 38% | 23% |
| Residence - Rural | 16% | 59% | 40% | 19% |
| Religion - Protestant | 54% | 59% | 40% | 19% |
| Married with children | 28% | 59% | 40% | 19% |
| Race - White | 77% | 58% | 41% | 17% |
| Attend church Weekly | 26% | 58% | 41% | 17% |
| Served in Millitary | 18% | 57% | 41% | 16% |
| Most Important Issue is Taxes | 5% | 57% | 43% | 14% |
| Income $50,000 or More | 55% | 56% | 43% | 13% |
| Male | 46% | 55% | 44% | 11% |
| Education - Some College | 32% | 54% | 46% | 8% |
| Age 60 and Older | 24% | 54% | 46% | 8% |
| Age 30-44 | 29% | 53% | 46% | 7% |
| Education - College Graduate | 26% | 52% | 46% | 6% |
| Residence - Suburbs | 45% | 52% | 47% | 5% |
| Same-sex couples should be able to have Civil Unions | 35% | 52% | 47% | 5% |
| Education - H.S. Graduate | 22% | 52% | 47% | 5% |
| Religion - Catholic | 27% | 52% | 47% | 5% |
| Age 45-59 | 30% | 51% | 48% | 3% |
| Residence - Small Towns | 8% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Attend church Monthly | 14% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Residence - Smaller Cities | 19% | 49% | 49% | 0% |
| Kerry Supporters
|
| Group | % of
voters | Bush | Kerry | Margin |
| Race - African-American | 11% | 11% | 88% | -77% |
| Disapprove of War in Iraq | 45% | 12% | 87% | -75% |
| Liberal | 21% | 13% | 85% | -72% |
| Most Important Issue is Economy/Jobs | 20% | 18% | 80% | -62% |
| Same-sex couples should be able to Legally Marry | 25% | 22% | 77% | -55% |
| Most Important Issue is Health Care | 8% | 23% | 77% | -54% |
| Religion - Other | 7% | 23% | 74% | -51% |
| Religion - Jewish | 3% | 25% | 74% | -49% |
| Abortion should be Always Legal | 21% | 25% | 73% | -48% |
| Most Important Issue is Iraq | 15% | 26% | 73% | -47% |
| Most Important Issue is Education | 4% | 26% | 73% | -47% |
| No Religion | 10% | 31% | 67% | -36% |
| Government should do more to solve problems | 46% | 33% | 66% | -33% |
| Someone in household has lost a job | 33% | 34% | 64% | -30% |
| Never Attend church | 15% | 36% | 62% | -26% |
| Abortion should be Mostly Legal | 34% | 38% | 61% | -23% |
| Residence - Big Cities | 13% | 39% | 60% | -21% |
| No Guns in household | 59% | 43% | 57% | -14% |
| Race - Asian | 2% | 44% | 56% | -12% |
| Education - Postgrad Study | 16% | 44% | 55% | -11% |
| Income Less Than $50,000 | 45% | 44% | 55% | -11% |
| Moderate | 45% | 45% | 54% | -9% |
| Race - Latino | 8% | 44% | 53% | -9% |
| Attend church A Few Times a Year | 28% | 45% | 54% | -9% |
| Age 18-29 | 17% | 45% | 54% | -9% |
| Female | 54% | 48% | 51% | -3% |
| Education - No High School | 4% | 49% | 50% | -1% |
Source: CNN
The top cagegory for both candidates was political party. Only 6% of Republicans (37% of population) voted for Kerry and 11% of Democrats (37% of population) voted for Bush. Independents (26% of population) were split, 48% for Bush and 49% for Kerry.
The issues with the most impact (computed by the percent of voters in the category times their margin for either candidate) are:
Most Important Issue is Terrorism: 14% Bush
Most Important Issue is Moral Values: 14% Bush
Most Important Issue is Economy/Jobs: 12% Kerry
White Evangelical/Born Again: 13% Bush
White: 13% Bush
African-American & Latino: 9% Kerry
Conservative vs Liberal: 8% Bush
Protestant: 7% Bush
No one/someone in household has lost a job: 6% Bush
Government should not do/not do more to solve problems: 5% Bush
Most Important Issue is Health Care: 4% Kerry
Abortion: 3% Bush
Age: 3% Bush
Gun owner in household: 3% Bush
Same-sex couples Legal Recognition: 1% Bush
Note: What these numbers mean: If everyone else split their vote evenly except
for the 19% of the voters who thought Terrorism was most important, Bush would
have won with a 14% majority.
There is a lot of overlap between categories so you can't add them
up to get Bush's 3% victory margin.
The most divisive issues are:
War in Iraq: 36% Bush - 34% Kerry
Conservative/Liberal: 23% Bush - 15% Kerry
Abortion: 21% Bush - 18% Kerry
Government should / should not do more to solve problems: 20% Bush - 15% Kerry
No one / Someone in household has lost a job: 15% Bush - 10% Kerry
Same-sex couples Legal Recognition: 15% Bush - 14% Kerry
Race: 13% Bush - 9% Kerry
Christian vs other: 11% Bush - 9% Kerry
Church Attendance (regular or not): 9% Bush - 6% Kerry
Summary:
Initial exit polls showed Kerry with an edge. Several theories have been put forth to explain this.
1. An overwieghting of results from women, who tend to vote earlier.
2. Republicans distrust the press so are less likely to cooperate.
The news media all reported the major swing issues were Cultural and Moral Values, and the increased turnout of Evangelical Christians had a major impact, however a Pew poll found that the Evangelicals effect was no different that it was in 2000. The Pew results state:
The post-election survey finds that, when moral values is pitted against issues like Iraq and terrorism, a plurality (27%) cites moral values as most important to their vote. But when a separate group of voters was asked to name Ð in their own words Ð the most important factor in their vote, significantly fewer (14%) mentioned moral values.
Later analysis showed that the phrase Òmoral issuesÓ was being used rather broadly by voters, from concern about character to worry over poverty. It was a catch-all. Still, the ranking of moral issues as the top reason to pick a president came as a surprise.
Other factors were the perceived intellectual elitism of the coasts (Calif., New York, Mass, ...) and the Hollywood support of Democrats. Middle america tended to relate to Bush more.
See Also:
PollingReport.com - Who's polls were best
USATODAY.com
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last updated 13 Dec 2020
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