Under Construction
From 1950-2008 there have been 6 bear markets (Drop of > 20% lasting more than 10 mos.)
1929 Crash - 90% 1937-1942 1946-49 42% 22 mos. Recovery started 3 yrs. after peak. 1956-57 20% 1 yr. 1961-62 21% 8 mos. 1966 20% 10 mos. 1970 33% 20 mos. Inflation - Recession - Failure of DJIA to break 1,000 1973-74 48% 21 mos. Bear Market - Recession - 48% 1981-82 26% 21 mos. Bear Market - Recession - Discount rate - 14% 1987 30% 3 mos. 2000 45% 25 mos. 2008-09 51% 16 mos.- Financial mortgage/lending crisis
1987 crash - 33% 3.4 mos.- As of 2005 no definite reason for the decline has been isolated.
At the time it was thought to warn of a impending recession, not it apears to have been caused by a new investment strategy involving stock index futures that led to major selling after the first decline.
1990 - Savings & loan scandal - 18% 3 mos.
Recession and Bear Markets: Recessions: * January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total * July 1990-March 1991: 8 months * November 2001-November 2002: 12 monthsS&P change (%)
Bear markets usually start before an associated recession, however this not a cause-effect relation, but stocks are anticipating a business slowdown..
At Hussman Funds "Recessions and Stock Prices" they say:
Source: How This Bear Market Compares - NYTimes.com Oct. 11, 2008
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