Don's Home Reference Demographics World Population Contact
Under Construction
Date Popul.
25,000 BC 3
10,000 BC 4
(1-10)
5,000 BC 5 (5-20)
2,000 BC 27
1,000 BC 100
0 200-300
1000 310
1250 400
1500 500
1600 579
1650 545
1700 679
1750 790
1800 960
1850 1,200
1900 1,600
1950 2,550
2000 6,070
Date Popul.Crude Birth Rate (CBR) & Death Rates (CDR) Per 1,000 (1)
Developed
Countries
Developing
Cos. (2)
World
Total
CBR CDR CBR CDR CBR CDR
1800 980 37 33 42 37
1850 1,260 37 31 42 37
1900 1,650 32 22 42 33
1950 2,520 23 11 42 23.5 37.4 19.8
2000 6,070 12 9.2 24 9.222.7 9.2
2050 9,191 10.4 10.4 15 10.413.7 10.4
Growth rate from 2000-2050 is 0.8%/year

See Population by Region in Places

Source: World Population Since Creation by Lambert Dolphin
and Historical Estimates of World Population from the Census Bureau.
E.A. Wrigley and R.S. Schofield, (Eds.). The Population History of England, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1989

(1) Curde Birth/Death rates - Number of births/deaths over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the population over that period. It is expressed as number of births per 1,000 population.
See: World Bank Development Education Program (DEP) and UN World Population Prospects, by country at the UN International Data Base (IBD) Demographic Data Page.

(2) Developing countries: Less developed countries include all countries in Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia.

Note: The fact that death rates increase in 2050 does not mean people are dying younger. It is a consequence of the birth rate going down resulting in a larger portion of the population in the older age groups.

China first implemented the "one child" rule--perhaps the best-known population policy in the world--in the 1970s amidst growing concerns over whether the famine-prone country could continue to feed its skyrocketing population. The rule, which reportedly is more lax today, stipulates that urban couples should have only one child. Couples in rural areas, where 80 percent of the population lives, may have two or possibly more children but should delay getting married initially and then space their children.

In some cases the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is slightly higher than the Crude Death Rate (CDR) (as in the U.S. 14 versus 9) while in other countries the CBR is less than the CDR (as in Germany, 9 versus 10).

The world is moving toward population stabalization (zero growth) faster than thought 10 years ago because of falling birth rates and rising death rates in some areas.

The original UN estimate showed stabalization (zero growth) just after 2200 with a world population of 11 B. The 1998 medium variant estimate shows a rate which will stabalize at just over 9 B around 2060. (Based on UN World Population Prospects medium variant projections)

Recent data shows that fertility (average number of children per woman is dropping faster than expected in developing countries. This has been attributed to better education and women having more choice rather than government policy. Infant mortality rates are dropping eliminating one reason for larger families. For example Brazil's fertility rate in 2001 was about 2.2 down from 6.2 in the last half of the last century. The zero growth rate is 2.1

Lester Brown, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute have identified three specific threats that either are already pushing death rates up or that have the potential to do so - the HIV epidemic, aquifer depletion, and shrinking cropland area per person.

The World Bank Development Education Program (DEP) site shows the difference between birth and death rates for developed and developing countries. Thay say:

"Around the world, death rates gradually decreased in the late 19th and the 20th centuries, with death rates in the developing world plummeting after World War II thanks to the spread of modern medicine. In much of the developing world the decline in death rates preceded the decline in birth rates by 20 years or more, resulting in record-high rates of population growth of 3 percent or even 4 percent a year. Since the 1960s birth rates have also been declining rapidly in most developing countries except those in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. This trend in birth rates in the developing world is comparable to what took place in Europe and the United States in the 19th century."

Reverend Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798 which argued that population would increase faster than food production and the population will be checked by famines, epidemics or wars. See Malthus.

See Also: Human Population Growth, by John W. Kimball, Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Three Patterns of Population Change at the Population Reference Bureau


Countries with Highest Projected Population in 2050

1,000's (Based on UN World Population Prospects medium variant projections in 2002)
Rnk
(2050)
Country195019982050
1India357,561982,2231,658,270
2China554,7601,255,6981,408,846
3USA157,813274,028402,415
4Indonesia79,538206,338296,885
5Pakistan 148,166292,205
6Nigeria 106,409288,696
7Brazil53,975165,851254,085
8Bangladesh 124,774254,084
9Congo, Demo. Rep. 49,139186,837
10Ethiopia 59,649183,404
11Philippines 72,944140,466
12Mexico 95,831132,278
13Viet Nam 77,562126,793
14Russian Federation102,192147,434121,256
15Iran 65,758114,947
16Egypt 65,978114,844
17Japan83,625126,281104,921
18Turkey 64,479100,664
19Tanzania 32,10280,584
20Thailand 60,30074,188
Rnk
(2050)
Country19982050
21 Germany 82,133 73,303
22 Colombia 40,803 71,550
23 Myanmar 44,497 64,890
24 Uganda 20,554 64,850
25 Afghanistan 21,354 61,004
26 France 58,683 59,883
27 Sudan 28,292 59,176
28 Yemen 16,887 58,801
29 Algeria 30,081 57,731
30 United Kingdom 58,649 56,667
31 Iraq 21,800 54,916
32 Argentina 36,123 54,522
33 Saudi Arabia 20,181 54,461
34 South Africa 39,357 52,514
35 Ghana 19,162 51,802
36 Republic of Korea 46,109 51,275
37 Kenya 29,008 51,034
-- Italy 57,369 41,197
-- Ukraine 50,861 39,302
World 5,962,090 9,191,287
Red entries indicate population which is decreasing from 1998 to 2050
Source: www9.ocn.ne.jp/~aslan/pfe/pop.htm

Top 10 contributers to population growth from 2000-2050 (1,000's) (2006 estimate)
Rnk Country Pop Growth
1,000s
%
Growth
Annual
growth
TFR *
1 India 612035 58% 0.9% 2.78
2 Nigeria 163923 131% 1.7% 5.53
3 Pakistan 147845 102% 1.4% 4.14
4 China 138884 11% 0.2% 1.72
5 Congo, Demo. Rep. 136148 269% 2.6% 6.54
6 USA 117558 41% 0.7% 2.08
7 Bangladesh 114650 82% 1.2% 3.13
8 Ethiopia 114016 164% 2.0% 5.33
9 Indonesia 85192 40% 0.7% 2.44
10 Brazil 79924 46% 0.8% 1.93
  World 3,067,164 50% 0.8% 2.6
These countries account for 56% of the total growth and India alone accounts for 20%.

* TFR Total Fertility Rate (Average number of babies born to women during their reproductive years) in 2005 (siakhenn.tripod.com/fertility.html)
TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement rate.
Fertility rates don't correlate directly with population growth rates because there are differences in death rates and the number of people in the child bearing age groups. It takes many years after the fertility rate drops to the replacement level for the growth rate to go to zero.

  Percentage distribution
  World Africa Asia Europe Latin America &
the Caribbean
Northern America Oceania
1750 100 13.4 63.5 20.6 2 0.3 0.3
1800 100 10.9 64.9 20.8 2.5 0.7 0.2
1850 100 8.8 64.1 21.9 3 2.1 0.2
1900 100 8.1 57.4 24.7 4.5 5 0.4
1950 100 8.8 55.6 21.7 6.6 6.8 0.5
1998 100 12.7 60.8 12.4 8.5 5.2 0.5
2050 100 21.7 57.3 7.2 8.4 4.8 0.5
Source: United Nations Population Division, Briefing Packet, 1998 Revision of World Population Prospects.

Life Expectancy


Source: Demographic Trends and Prospects from the World Bank.

Oldest People
45 people over 110 yrs old were living a/o Apr. 2003
Oldest is Kamato Hongo of Japan who is 115
Record is Jeanne Calment of France who was 122 yrs old when she died in 1997
Total by Country: Japan - 8, US - 6, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain -1.
Japan and US totals may be higher because of better record keeping.
Source: Gerontology Research Group

Major area Percentage distribution in 2005 Percentage distribution in 2050
0-14 15-59 60+ 80+ 0-14 15-59 60+ 80+
World 28.3 61.4 10.3 1.3 19.8 58.3 21.8 4.4
More developed regions 17.0 62.9 20.1 3.7 15.2 52.2 32.6 9.4
Less developed regions 30.9 61.0 8.1 0.8 20.6 59.3 20.1 3.6
Least developed countries 41.5 53.4 5.1 0.4 28.2 61.5 10.3 1.1
Other less developed countries 29.1 62.3 8.6 0.9 18.4 58.7 22.9 4.3
Africa 41.4 53.4 5.2 0.4 28.0 61.7 10.4 1.1
Asia 28.0 62.7 9.2 1.0 18.0 58.3 23.7 4.5
Europe 15.9 63.5 20.6 3.5 14.6 50.9 34.5 9.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 29.8 61.2 9.0 1.2 18.0 57.8 24.3 5.2
Northern America 20.5 62.7 16.7 3.5 17.1 55.6 27.3 7.8
Oceania 24.9 61.0 14.1 2.6 18.4 56.9 24.8 6.8
Source: United Nations "World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision: Population Ageing")



See: Deaths (Cause, Rate by Age, Life Expectancy)
Population through history plotted
Population
City Population
Population Resource Center
Demographic Trends at ReproHealth.org/
Population Reference Bureau)
Aging in the Americas from the Family Health and Population Program (US Dept. of Commerce), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), and the Office of the Demography of Aging, Behavioral and Social Research Program, U.S. National Institute on Aging (NIA).


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last updated 23 Apr 2003