This page is a high level overview of the campaign. It doesn't list who made what fopaw in what debate. See links below for more information.
Polling | Results | Primary Schedule |
How it Works | Iowa |
Classification - Moderate - Conservative | Debates | Links
National Polling results:
Sources:
Poll Tracker | WSJ.com | Gallup.com |
Race 4 2012 | RealClearPolitics
Results vary considerably between different polls. For example in July polls Romney got from 16 to 30% and Bachmann got from 11 to 16%. See an example for Iowa below.
Initial Primary Results
Place |
| | | | | | | |
Iowa | 25% | 25% | 13% | 21% | 10% | 0.6% | 5% | 0.3% |
New Hampshire | 39% | 9% | 9% | 23% | 0.7% | 17% | 1.5% |
South Carolina | 28% | 17% | 40% | 13% | 0.4% | | |
See Primaries below for others |
Super Tuesday is the Tue., usually Feb. or Mar., when the greatest number of delegates (usually 20-40%) are up for grabs.
Primary Schedule and Results (Click on candidate name for a google search)
Date | Deli- gates | State | Deli- gates | Type | Deli- gate Allo- cation | | | | |
Home State | MA | PA | GA | TX |
Tue Jan 3 | 28 | Iowa | 28 | (nonbinding) caucus | N/A
Caucus' result in both bound and unbound delegates based on state rules
| 25% | 25% | 13% | 21% |
Tue Jan 10 | 12 | New Hampshire | 12 | (modified) primary | proprtnl
Delegates are allocated proportionally to the popular vote.
| 39% | 9% | 9% | 23% |
Sat Jan 21 | 25 | South Carolina | 25 | (open) primary | proprtnl | 28% | 17% | 40% | 13% |
Tue Jan 31 | 50 | Florida | 50 | (closed) primary | WTA
Winner-Take-All.
| 46% | 13% | 32% | 7% |
Sat Feb 4 | 28 | Nevada | 28 | (binding) caucus | proprtnl | 50% | 10% | 21% | 19% |
Tue Feb 7 | 128 | Colorado | 36 | (nonbinding) caucus | N/A | 35% | 40% | 13% | 12% |
| | Minnesota precincts | 40 | (nonbinding) caucus | N/A 1 | 17% | 45% | 11% | 27% |
| | Missouri | 52 | (nonbinding) primary | Conv
The delegation will be elected on the floor of the state convention based on stated presidential preference.
| 25% | 55% | | 12% |
Feb 4-11 | 24 | Maine | 24 | (nonbinding) caucus | N/A | 39% | 18% | 6% | 36% |
Tue Feb 28 | 59 | Arizona | 29 | (closed) primary | WTA | 47% | 27% | 16% | 8% |
| | Michigan | 30 | (open) primary | AP/CW
At-large delegates are proportional, Congressional District delegates are Winner-Take-All. See below.
| 41% | 38% | 7% | 12% |
Feb 11-29 | 29 | Wyoming | 29 | (binding) caucus | N/A | 44% | 28% | 1% | 12% |
Sat Mar 3 | 43 | Washington | 43 | (nonbinding) caucus | Conv | 38% | 24% | 10% | 25% |
Tue Mar 6 | 437 | Alaska | 27 | (binding) caucus | Proptl | 32% | 29% | 14% | 24% |
(Super | | Georgia | 76 | (modified)
| Proptl | 26% | 20% | 47% | 7% |
Tuesday) | | Idaho | 32 | (binding) caucus | Proptl | 62% | 18% | 2% | 18% |
| | Massachusetts | 41 | (modified)
| Proptl | 72% | 12% | 5% | 10% |
| | North Dakota | 28 | (binding) caucus | N/A | 24% | 40% | 8% | 28% |
| | Ohio | 66 | (modified) primary | AP*/CW
At-large delegates are proportional, Congressional District delegates are Winner-Take-All. See below.
* If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes WTA.
| 38% | 37% | 15% | 9% |
| | Oklahoma | 43 | (closed) primary | proprtnl*
If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes WTA.
| 28% | 34% | 28% | 10% |
| | Tennessee | 58 | (open) primary | proprtnl#
If any candidate receives more than 66% of the votes it becomes a WTA contest.
| 28% | 37% | 24% | 9% |
| | Vermont | 17 | (open) primary | AP*/CW | 40% | 24% | 8% | 26% |
| | Virginia | 49 | (open) primary | AP*/CW | 60% | - | - | 41% |
Sat Mar 10 | 49 | Kansas | 40 | (binding) caucus | AP/CW | 21% | 51% | 14% | 13% |
| | U.S. Virgin Islands | 9 | (binding) caucus | N/A | 26% | 6% | 5% | 29% |
Date | Deli- gates | State | Deli- gates | Type | Deli- gate Allo- cation | | | | |
Tue Mar 13 | 119 | Alabama | 50 | (open) primary | proprtnl* | 29% | 35% | 29% | 5% |
| | Hawaii | 20 | (binding) caucus | proprtnl | 45% | 25% | 11% | 19% |
| | Mississippi | 40 | (open) primary | proprtnl | 31% | 33% | 31% | 4% |
| | American Samoa | 9 | Caucus | N/A | | | | |
Sat Mar 17 | (52) | Missouri | (52) | (binding) caucus | Conv | | | | |
Sun Mar 18 | 23 | Puerto Rico | 23 | (open) primary | WTA | 83% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
Tue Mar 20 | 69 | Illinois | 69 | (open) primary | N/A | 47% | 35% | 7% | 9% |
Sat Mar 24 | 46 | Louisiana | 46 | (closed) primary | AP/CU
At-large delegates are proportional, Congressional District delegates are unbound.
| 27% | 49% | 16% | 6% |
Tue Apr 3 | 98 | District of Columbia | 19 | (closed) primary | WTA | 68% | | 10% | 12% |
| | Maryland | 37 | (closed) primary | WTA | 49% | 29% | 11% | 9% |
| | Wisconsin | 42 | (open) primary | WTA | 43% | 38% | 6% | 12% |
Tue Apr 24 | 231 | Connecticut | 28 | (closed) primary | AP*/CW | 68% | 7% | 10% | 13% |
| | Delaware | 17 | (closed) primary | WTA | 56% | 6% | 27% | 11% |
| | New York | 95 | (closed) primary | proprtnl * | 63% | 9% | 13% | 15% |
| | Pennsylvania | 72 | (closed) primary | N/A | 58% | 18% | 11% | 13% |
| | Rhode Island | 19 | (modified) primary | proprtnl | 63% | 6% | 6% | 24% |
Tue May 5-6 | 24 | Maine | 24 | (closed) caucus | | 8% | | | 83% |
Tue May 8 | 132 | Indiana | 46 | (open) primary | AU/CW | 65% | 13% | 6% | 16% |
| | North Carolina | 55 | (modified) primary | proprtnl | 66% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
| | West Virginia | 31 | (modified) primary | proprtnl | 70% | 12% | 6% | 11% |
May 15 | 63 | Nebraska | 35 | (nonbinding) primary | Conv | 71% | 14% | 5% | 10% |
| | Oregon | 28 | (closed) primary | proprtnl | 72% | 10% | 6% | 13% |
May 18-19 | | Minnesota state convention | 40 | (nonbinding) caucus | | 6% | | | 75% |
Tue May 22 | 81 | Arkansas | 36 | (open) primary | proprtnl * | | | | |
| | Kentucky | 45 | (closed) primary | proprtnl | | | | |
May 29 | 155 | Texas | 155 | (open) primary | proprtnl | | | | |
Tue Jun 5 | 299 | California | 172 | (closed) primary | WTA | | | | |
| | Montana | 26 | (nonbinding) primary | 3 | | | | |
| | New Jersey | 50 | (modified) primary | WTA | | | | |
| | New Mexico | 23 | (closed) primary | proprtnl | | | | |
| | South Dakota | 28 | (closed) primary | proprtnl | | | | |
Tue Jun 26 | 40 | Utah | 40 | (modified) primary | WTA | | | | |
14-Jul | (35) | Nebraska | (35) | (binding) caucus | Conv | | | | |
Date to be determind | | Guam | 9 | | N/A | | | | |
Northern Marianne Islands | 9 | | N/A |
Total Deligates | 2,286 | 681 | 270 | 157 | 79 |
August 27th-30th - 40th Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, Florida |
A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes to win.
Source:
Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries and Primaries 2012 at Wikipedia
Preliminary 2012 Presidential Primary and Caucus Schedule at White House 2012
and Republican Delegate Allocation at TheGreenPapers.com
proptnl - Delegates are allocated proportionally
WTA - Winner-Take-All
AP/CW - At-large delegates are proportional, Congressional District delegates are Winner-Take-All
AP/CU - At-large delegates are proportional, Congressional District delegates are unbound
AU/CW - At-large delegates are unbound, Congressional District delegates are Winner-Take-All
Conv - The delegation will be elected on the floor of the state convention based on stated
presidential preference.
Open - Anyone feom any Party or unaffiliated registartion can vote in either the primary or caucus.
Modified - Only registered Republicans and Registered Independent
or unafilated voters can vote in the primary or caucus.
Closed - Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary or caucus
* If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes a WTA contest.
# If any candidate receives more than 66% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
1 The state, district or territory convention can vote to bind some or all of the delegates
3 This is simply a high-profile strawpoll. The real contest happens later.
N/A -
Caucus process can produce both pledged and unpledged convention delegates, depending on the party rules of the various states.
Some states follow with a state convention
In Pennsylvania each Republican delegate is allowed to support the candidate of their choice, irrespective of voting results in the GOP primary.
see Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012 - Wikipedia
Penalties:
Several States were penalized 50% of their delegates, because they violated Republican National Committee (RNC) rules such as moving primary dates up prior to Super Tuesday.
Delegates
State Normal Penalty
Arizona 58 29
Florida 99 50
Michigan 59 30
New Hampshire 23 12
South Carolina 50 25
Missouri will hold a primary on Feb. 7th which will not count toward delegates, a caucus on March 17th will count.
Nebraska will do something similar on May 15 and July 14.
How it Works - (Delegates, Superdelegates, Open/Closed, Primary, Caucus)
Some of the rules are determined by the national committee for each party and some by state organizations.
How is the number of delegates per state determined?
There are 56 voting units; 50 states, which get all 4 categories of delegates (below), 5 Territories (Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, U.S. Virgin Islands & Northern Marianas) and the District of Columbia, which only get base at-large and party delegates.
State delegate counts are reached based on a formula of:
a. Congressional Districts - 3 per district (435 districts) = 1,305;
b. Base at-large - 10 per state, 6 per territory = 560;
c. Party official delegates - 3 per state/territory) = 168;
(Includes 132 superdelegates)
d. Bonus delegates are given to states that elect a Republican Governor and for each Republican U.S. Senator that represents their state (1 [e.g. New York] dto 34 [Texas] per state) = 396.
2012 Totals Before penalty: 2,429 delegates
Source: White House 2012
See also Republican Delegate Allocation | TheGreenPapers.com
Terms:
- Proportional = Delegates are handed out based upon the percentage of their total votes
- Winner-Take-All = The winner takes all of the states delegates to the convention
- Winner-Take-All (by distrcit) = Delegates are handed out by the congressional districts candidates win in
- Open = Anyone from any Party or unaffiliated registartion can vote in either the primary or caucus
- Modified = Only registered Republicans and Registered Independent or unafilated voters can vote in the primary or caucus
- Closed = Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary or caucus
- Primary = Primaries are similar to general elections. Voters cast secret ballots at polling places, and can come and go as they please.
- Caucus = Caucus' require voters to get together face-to-face and discuss who to vote for. They can last 15 minutes or several hours.
Who are the delegates?
Delegates are often party activists, local political leaders, or early supporters of a given candidate.
A member of a county board or a local state representative or a state senator are frequently delegates.
See:
The Role of Delegates in the U.S. Presidential Nominating Process - Council on Foreign Relations
Superdelegates
are party leaders and elected officials ("PLEOs"). All the superdelegates are free to support any candidate for the nomination.
For Republicans, in 2012, there are potentially 3 superdelegates in each state, consisting of the state chairman and two RNC committeemen/women. However, certain states either have no superdelegates or have them but whose votes are bound by the results of the state vote. In 2012, there are a total of 132 Republican superdelegates.
In some states, delegates are bound, or "pledged" to vote for the primary winner in voting at the national convention. In other states some or all delegates are "unpledged," and free to vote for any candidate they wish at the convention.
See:
The Green Papers Election 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 Glossary
Polls in a given state can vary quite a bit in the weeks and days leading up to the primary. Here is an example for Iowa.
Iowa Caucus' (Polls of people likely to vote)
Poll/Results | Date | | | | | | | | |
CNN | 28-Dec | 25% | 22% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 1% |
Insider Advantage * | 29-Dec | 17% | 17% | 13% | 17% | 11% | 12% | 3% |
Rasmussen | 29-Dec | 23% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 5% | 3% |
NBC News/Marist | 30-Dec | 23% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
Des Moines Register | 31-Dec | 24% | 22% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 2% |
Insider Advantage | 2-Jan | 23% | 22% | 18% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 2% |
PPP (D) | 2-Jan | 19% | 20% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 4% |
Average * | | 23% | 22% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 5% |
Results | 3-Jan |
Entrance Polls | 8:30 PM | 24% | 22% | 24% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 1% |
Daily Kos LiveBlog | 7:15 PM 48% Reporting | 23.8% | 21.9% | 24.4% |
MSNBC | 10:40 PM 98% Reporting | 29,657 | 25,926 | 29,662 |
Final | | 29,805 24.53% | 21.4% | 29,839 24.56% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
* Dec. 29 Insider Advantage excluded from Average calculation
Romney was originally declared the winner 30,015 (24.55%) to 30,007 (24.54%),
but two weeks later on Jan. 18, the Iowa GOP said certified results showed Santorum was ahead by 34 votes, but no official winner was declared because votes from eight precincts were missing. See Fox News
Daily Kos: Daily Kos Elections Iowa Republican caucuses liveblog thread #8
Classification - Moderate - Conservative
Who's the Most Conservative GOP Contender? A Candidate Matrix - News - GOOD - August 13, 2011
"The candidates' matrix positions were determined by an algorithm of a one through five rating, five being the most conservative. The categories for fiscal issues were taxes, budget, corporation-friendliness, health care, and government programs. For social issues, they were abortion and sex, civil rights, war, environment, and immigration."
Ranked [By DonsNotes] from most moderate to most extreme.
1-Jon Huntsman, 2-Mitt Romney, 3-Ron Paul, 4-Herman Cain, 5-Michele Bachmann, 6-Rick Perry
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Nate Silver, who developed the chart, says,
"One dimension is obvious: we can classify the candidates from left to right, from relatively more moderate to relatively more conservative. But another dimension that is often salient in the primaries, and perhaps especially so for Republicans next year, is what we might think of as the insider/outsider axis: whether the candidate is viewed as part of the Republican establishment, or as a critic of it."
Speculated candidates, Palin, Huckabee, Daniels, Thune, Giuliani, Trump and Christie never entered the campaign.
As of Dec. 4, 2011, Pawlenty and Cain had withdrawn or suspended their campaigns.
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The area of each candidate's circle is proportional to their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination, according to the Intrade betting market.
The color of each circle reflects the region the candidate is from: blue for the Northeast, red for the South, green for the Midwest, and yellow for the West.
Silver comments, "Gingrich is a difficult case, a former Speaker of the House (it's hard to get more establishment than that), led the 1994 Republican Revolution, but has more recently aligned himself with Tea Party groups."
As of Dec. 5, intrade says there is a 30% change that Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul OR Bachmann will run for President as Independent or 3rd party candidate.
Rating the GOP candidates following the debate of - National Conservative | Examiner.com by Anthony Martin, 9/22/2011
Ratings for each candidate on the issues that are important to conservatives: the economy and jobs, gun rights, low taxes, runaway government spending and small government, abortion, foreign policy, the war on terror, national defense, stopping the onslaught of illegal aliens, and border security. The highest score is a 10, the lowest a 1.
Michele Bachmann-9, Herman Cain-8, Newt Gingrich-8, Rick Santorum-8, Ron Paul-7, Rick Perry-7, Gary Johnson-6, Mitt Romney-3, Jon Huntsman-1,
Rank Order the GOP Candidates Based on Likelihood to Plunge Us into Another War | Conservative Heritage Times - Oct. 6, 2011
1. Rick Santorum, 2. Newt Gingrich, 3. Michelle Bachmann, 4. Rick Perry, 5. Herman Cain, 6. Mitt Romney, 7. John Huntsman, 8. Gary Johnson, 9. Ron Paul
1 and 2 were easy and 7, 8 and 9 were easy. 3 through 6 were harder.
The Patriot's 2012 GOP Candidate Ratings | Frank Talk, October 28, 2011
We have assigned all candidates a Patriot Rating based on comprehensive analysis of many factors. Among these are their record, experience, capability, character, leadership qualifications and, of course, a demonstrated ability to abide by their prescribed oath "to support and defend" our Constitution. We evaluate their record of defending Essential Liberty, and their support for restoration of constitutional limits upon government -- including the judiciary -- the promotion of free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. The rating is from 1 to 10, the higher the better.
We do not rate candidates on "electability."
Newt Gingrich-6, Mitt Romney-6, Rick Perry-6, Herman Cain-5, Rick Santorum-4, Ron Paul-3, Michele Bachmann-3
Debates:
There were 18 debates thru the Florida debate on January 23.
See Presidential debate fatigue: How many is too many? - The Washington Post
Future Republican debate schedule | Washington Times Communities:
January 26 - Jacksonville, FL
February 22 - Mesa, Arizona
March 1 - Georgia
March 5 - Simi Valley, CA
March 19 - Portland, OR
Videos
YouTube
Fact check: GOP debate's history flubs - CBS News
Links:
Schedules at 2012 Election Central: Debates | Primary/caucus
Election 2012 Polling and News, Republican Presidential Candidates, Obama, Positive Intensity | Gallup.com
WSJ.com: Candidates & Races - Election 2012 | Poll Tracker
Conservapedia - Presidential Election 2012 | Definition of a Conservative
Intrade Prediction Markets
2012 GOP News, Polls and Blogs for Republicans & Conservatives | Race42012.com
RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls
2012 Election Central
Tea Party Support Falls Even in Strongholds, Survey Finds - NYTimes.com, 11/29/11
Politics and Elections at PewResearch.org
CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs
Romney Strategy in Question WSJ.com 12/1/11
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last updated 20 May 2012
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