See also Republican Primaries | Poll Tracker at the Wall Street Journal.
2012 Presidential Debate Schedule at 2012 Election Central

The Electoral Map - Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com
State Electorial
Votes
Florida 29
Ohio 18
North Carolina 15
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4

270toWin.com has the same list.

Back in Feb they predicted that Obama will win if 2012 GDP growth is 1.9% or above.
For Gingrich or Santorum to win GDP growth would have to drop to 0.5%.


Source: Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent - NYTimes.com, Feb 19,2012
In Nate Silver's NY Times Magazine article he says, "In recent weeks, Obama has taken a more populist approach (just read the transcript of his State of the Union address)."

His analysis concludes, "All told, there are 101 electoral votes in swing states that Obama could either put into play or make more secure under the populist paradigm well more than the 36 he might lose among Virginia, Colorado and New Jersey."

Results:

Democratic States
State ECV %Dem
D.C. 3 91%
Hawaii 4 71%
Vt. 3 67%
N.Y. 29 63%
R.I. 4 63%
Md. 10 62%
Mass. 11 61%
Calif. 55 59%
Del. 3 59%
Conn. 7 58%
N.J. 14 58%
Ill. 20 57%
Me. 4 56%
Wash. 12 56%
Ore. 7 55%
Mich. 16 54%
Minn. 10 53%
N.M. 5 53%
Wis. 10 53%
Nev. 6 52%
Pa. 20 52%
Iowa 6 52%
N.H. 4 52%
Colo. 9 51%
Va. 13 51%
Fla. 29 50%
Ohio 18 50%
332
Republican States
State ECV %Rep
Utah 6 73%
Wyo. 3 69%
Okla. 7 67%
Idaho 4 65%
W.Va. 5 62%
Ala. 9 61%
Ark. 6 61%
Ky. 8 61%
Neb. 5 61%
Kan. 6 60%
Tenn. 11 60%
N.D. 3 59%
La. 8 58%
S.D. 3 58%
Tex. 38 57%
Miss. 6 56%
Alaska 3 55%
Mont. 3 55%
S.C. 9 55%
Ariz. 11 54%
Ind. 11 54%
Mo. 10 54%
Ga. 16 53%
N.C. 15 51%
206
ECV = Electoral College Votes

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last updated 9 Oct 2012