2004 vs 2000
New Mexico (0.8%) and Iowa (0.9%) changed from Blue to Red (Republican)
New Hampsire changed from Red to Blue (-1.3%) (Democratic with 1.3% margin)

Electoral College Votes:
2000 2004
Bush 271 286
Gore/Kerry 267 252
See 2004 results at CNN, Yahoo and Wikipedia.
Party Label (Candidate 2000/2004) 20002004
Votes %Votes %
Republican (George W. Bush) 50,456,002 47.8761,121,520 50.9
Democrat (Gore/Kerry) 50,999,897 48.3857,781,877 48.1
Green (Ralph Nader/Cobb) 2,882,955 †2.74107,1350.09
Reform/Independent (Hagelin/Ralph Nader) .08427,637 0.36
Patrick J. Buchanan (Reform/Independent) 448,895 .42
Libertarian (Harry Browne/Badnarik) 384,431 .36392,861 0.33
Constitution (Howard Phillips/Peroutka) .09149,0270.13
Write-In (Miscellaneous) .02
James E. Harris, Jr.
(Socialist Workers)
.01
Total 105,405,100 120,070,437
Turnout * 54% 60%

* Turnout - Percent of eligable voters. Recent record was 1960, when about two-thirds of eligible voters came out to back either Democrat John Kennedy or Republican Richard Nixon.

2004 Results

Democratic States
State ECV Margin
D.C. 3 80.1%
Massachusetts 12 25.2%
Rhode Island 4 20.8%
Vermont 3 20.2%
New York 31 18.3%
Maryland 10 13.0%
Connecticut 7 10.4%
Illinois 21 10.3%
California 55 10.0%
Maine 4 9.0%
Hawaii 4 8.7%
Delaware 3 7.6%
Washington 11 7.2%
New Jersey 15 6.7%
Oregon 7 4.2%
Minnesota 10 3.5%
Michigan 17 3.4%
Pennsylvania 21 2.5%
New Hampshire 4 1.4%
Wisconsin 10 0.4%
Total 252  
Republican States
State ECV Margin
Utah 5 45.6%
Wyoming 3 39.9%
Idaho 4 38.1%
Nebraska 5 33.3%
Oklahoma 7 31.1%
North Dakota 3 27.4%
Alabama 9 25.6%
Alaska 3 25.6%
Kansas 6 25.4%
Texas 34 22.9%
South Dakota 3 21.5%
Indiana 11 20.7%
Montana 3 20.5%
Kentucky 8 19.9%
Mississippi 6 18.9%
South Carolina 8 17.1%
Georgia 15 16.6%
Louisiana 9 14.5%
Tennessee 11 14.3%
West Virginia 5 12.9%
North Carolina 15 12.4%
Arizona 10 10.5%
Arkansas 6 9.8%
Virginia 13 8.2%
Missouri 11 7.2%
Florida 27 5.0%
Colorado 9 4.7%
Nevada 5 2.6%
Ohio 20 2.1%
New Mexico 5 0.8%
Iowa 7 0.7%
Total 286 0.5
News analysis following the election found most of the media jumping on any opinion which sounded interesting. For example the election was swung by the high turnout of Evangelical Christians and the early lead reported for Kerry was because more women voted early.
Statistical data and better analysis did not show either of these to be correct. See summary below.

Exit Poll Results:
Group % of
voters
Bush Kerry Margin
Bush Supporters
Most Important Issue is Terrorism 19% 86% 14% 72%
Approve War in Iraq 51% 85% 14% 71%
Conservative 34% 84% 15% 69%
Most Important Issue is Moral Values 22% 80% 18% 62%
White Evangelical/Born Again 23% 78% 21% 57%
Abortion should be Always Illegal 16% 77% 22% 55%
Abortion should be Mostly Illegal 26% 73% 26% 47%
Same-sex couples should have No Legal Recognition 37% 70% 29% 41%
Government should not do more to solve problems 49% 70% 29% 41%
Attend church More Than Weekly 16% 64% 35% 29%
Gun owner in household 41% 63% 36% 27%
No one in household has lost a job 67% 61% 38% 23%
Residence - Rural 16% 59% 40% 19%
Religion - Protestant 54% 59% 40% 19%
Married with children 28% 59% 40% 19%
Race - White 77% 58% 41% 17%
Attend church Weekly 26% 58% 41% 17%
Served in Millitary 18% 57% 41% 16%
Most Important Issue is Taxes 5% 57% 43% 14%
Income $50,000 or More 55% 56% 43% 13%
Male 46% 55% 44% 11%
Education - Some College 32% 54% 46% 8%
Age 60 and Older 24% 54% 46% 8%
Age 30-44 29% 53% 46% 7%
Education - College Graduate 26% 52% 46% 6%
Residence - Suburbs 45% 52% 47% 5%
Same-sex couples should be able to have Civil Unions 35% 52% 47% 5%
Education - H.S. Graduate 22% 52% 47% 5%
Religion - Catholic 27% 52% 47% 5%
Age 45-59 30% 51% 48% 3%
Residence - Small Towns 8% 50% 48% 2%
Attend church Monthly 14% 50% 49% 1%
Residence - Smaller Cities 19% 49% 49% 0%
Kerry Supporters
Group % of
voters
Bush Kerry Margin
Race - African-American 11% 11% 88% -77%
Disapprove of War in Iraq 45% 12% 87% -75%
Liberal 21% 13% 85% -72%
Most Important Issue is Economy/Jobs 20% 18% 80% -62%
Same-sex couples should be able to Legally Marry 25% 22% 77% -55%
Most Important Issue is Health Care 8% 23% 77% -54%
Religion - Other 7% 23% 74% -51%
Religion - Jewish 3% 25% 74% -49%
Abortion should be Always Legal 21% 25% 73% -48%
Most Important Issue is Iraq 15% 26% 73% -47%
Most Important Issue is Education 4% 26% 73% -47%
No Religion 10% 31% 67% -36%
Government should do more to solve problems 46% 33% 66% -33%
Someone in household has lost a job 33% 34% 64% -30%
Never Attend church 15% 36% 62% -26%
Abortion should be Mostly Legal 34% 38% 61% -23%
Residence - Big Cities 13% 39% 60% -21%
No Guns in household 59% 43% 57% -14%
Race - Asian 2% 44% 56% -12%
Education - Postgrad Study 16% 44% 55% -11%
Income Less Than $50,000 45% 44% 55% -11%
Moderate 45% 45% 54% -9%
Race - Latino 8% 44% 53% -9%
Attend church A Few Times a Year 28% 45% 54% -9%
Age 18-29 17% 45% 54% -9%
Female 54% 48% 51% -3%
Education - No High School 4% 49% 50% -1%
Source: CNN


The top cagegory for both candidates was political party. Only 6% of Republicans (37% of population) voted for Kerry and 11% of Democrats (37% of population) voted for Bush. Independents (26% of population) were split, 48% for Bush and 49% for Kerry.

The issues with the most impact (computed by the percent of voters in the category times their margin for either candidate) are:

                     Most Important Issue is Terrorism: 14% Bush
                  Most Important Issue is Moral Values: 14% Bush
                  Most Important Issue is Economy/Jobs: 12% Kerry
                          White Evangelical/Born Again: 13% Bush
                                                 White: 13% Bush
                             African-American & Latino:  9% Kerry
                               Conservative vs Liberal:  8% Bush
                                            Protestant:  7% Bush
            No one/someone in household has lost a job:  6% Bush
Government should not do/not do more to solve problems:  5% Bush
                   Most Important Issue is Health Care:  4% Kerry
                                              Abortion:  3% Bush
                                                   Age:  3% Bush
                                Gun owner in household:  3% Bush
                    Same-sex couples Legal Recognition:  1% Bush
                    
 Note: What these numbers mean: If everyone else split their vote evenly except
 for the 19% of the voters who thought Terrorism was most important, Bush would
 have won with a 14% majority.
There is a lot of overlap between categories so you can't add them up to get Bush's 3% victory margin. The most divisive issues are: War in Iraq: 36% Bush - 34% Kerry Conservative/Liberal: 23% Bush - 15% Kerry Abortion: 21% Bush - 18% Kerry Government should / should not do more to solve problems: 20% Bush - 15% Kerry No one / Someone in household has lost a job: 15% Bush - 10% Kerry Same-sex couples Legal Recognition: 15% Bush - 14% Kerry Race: 13% Bush - 9% Kerry Christian vs other: 11% Bush - 9% Kerry Church Attendance (regular or not): 9% Bush - 6% Kerry
Summary:
Initial exit polls showed Kerry with an edge. Several theories have been put forth to explain this.
1. An overwieghting of results from women, who tend to vote earlier.
2. Republicans distrust the press so are less likely to cooperate.

The news media all reported the major swing issues were Cultural and Moral Values, and the increased turnout of Evangelical Christians had a major impact, however a Pew poll found that the Evangelicals effect was no different that it was in 2000. The Pew results state:

The post-election survey finds that, when moral values is pitted against issues like Iraq and terrorism, a plurality (27%) cites moral values as most important to their vote. But when a separate group of voters was asked to name – in their own words – the most important factor in their vote, significantly fewer (14%) mentioned moral values.
Later analysis showed that the phrase “moral issues” was being used rather broadly by voters, from concern about character to worry over poverty. It was a catch-all. Still, the ranking of moral issues as the top reason to pick a president came as a surprise.

Other factors were the perceived intellectual elitism of the coasts (Calif., New York, Mass, ...) and the Hollywood support of Democrats. Middle america tended to relate to Bush more.

See Also:
PollingReport.com - Who's polls were best
Return to Politics

last updated 13 Dec 2004